Cedar Plan · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$326,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily · 413 Days on market

$113/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered lanai
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• COVERED LANAI
• GREAT ROOM
• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listed as new construction inventory (Plan); List price indicated (information provided separately)
• HOA & community: Association fee approximately $113.74

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric; Central air
• Home design: Single-family plan (Cedar); Located in Parrish, FL
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan model named Cedar; Living area approximately 1575

🏗️ New construction. The $326,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $365,400.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $327k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-258 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 413 days — a 12% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $287,759 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 413 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.02%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $365,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4504 Hawthorn Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,575 (0%)	5mo	$346,256	$220	84
13142 Cedar Elm Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-11%)	3mo	$307,500	$219	71
13105 Bayberry Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-11%)	6mo	$309,469	$221	66
13142 Sassafras Trl	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-11%)	4mo	$318,756	$228	65
13139 Sassafras Trl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-11%)	2mo	$337,668	$241	65
13461 Old Creek Ct	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,641 (+4%)	5mo	$380,000	$232	59
4149 Golden Creek Ter	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (+4%)	2mo	$395,000	$242	59
12427 52nd St E	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,731 (+10%)	3mo	$399,645	$231	59
5012 124th Ave E	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,731 (+10%)	4mo	$409,643	$237	55
5021 124th Ave E	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,731 (+10%)	5mo	$419,689	$242	53
4254 Golden Creek Ter	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,479 (-6%)	6mo	$368,000	$249	52
12309 49th St E	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,731 (+10%)	4mo	$379,365	$219	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-84,335
• Equity at exit: $54,482

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-128,227
• Equity at exit: $31,593

Cash invested: $102,312 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,013 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,916
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$457 /mo · $5,481/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $-258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,339

Max offer price $328,122

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5	-5% $-131	+0% $-258	+5% $-384	+10% $-510
Rent	-10% $-496	-5% $-377	+0% $-258	+5% $-139	+10% $-20
Rate	-1.0pp $-74	-0.5pp $-165	base $-258	+0.5pp $-352	+1.0pp $-449

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,350
• Closing costs: $10,962
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13019 Bluff Oak Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2152	$2,975	$1.38	17d	1	0.10mi
13114 Cedar Elm Ln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1980	$3,000	$1.52	24d	1	0.11mi
13832 Old Creek Ct Parrish, FL	2.0	2.0	1641	$2,700	$1.65	24d	1	0.46mi
12352 49th St E Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2209	$2,750	$1.24	24d	1	0.61mi
3775 Manorwood Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2122	$3,300	$1.56	17d	1	0.79mi
4723 Willow Bend Ave Parrish, FL	2.0	2.0	1524	$2,800	$1.84	24d	1	1.00mi
4213 Berkeley Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1749	$2,485	$1.42	3d	1	1.23mi
3511 Wild Blossom Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,500	$1.48	12d	1	1.24mi
11835 Crawford Parrish Ln Parrish, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,800	$2.42	24d	1	1.28mi
2910 122nd Ter E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1830	$3,300	$1.80	24d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $113 · $1,356/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $326,999 Active 413 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $326,999 Active 412 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $326,999 Active 411 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $326,999 Active 410 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $326,999 Active 408 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $326,999 Active 407 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $326,999 Active 405 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $326,999 Active 404 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $326,999 Active 403 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $326,999 Active 402 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $326,999 Active 398 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $326,999 Active 397 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $326,999 Active 396 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $326,999 Active 395 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,161
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,468
• − Property taxes: −$5,481
• − Insurance: −$1,827
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,893
• − Management: −$2,893
• − HOA: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$10,630
• Taxable loss: −$9,387
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,253
• After-tax cash flow: $-839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B