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1633 Asbury Ln
D Composite 41.22
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +13.6/15.0
  • Cash flow +7.9/30.0
  • Schools +5.3/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.8/5.0
  • Livability +3.4/5.0
  • 1% rule +2.8/10.0
  • DSCR +2.0/10.0
  • Rent growth +1.3/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$424,900

1633 Asbury Ln · Celina, TX 75009
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,056 sqft · SingleFamily · 64 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,617 sqft lot 2-car garage $207/sqft · 14% below area Est $492k · 14% under $135/mo HOA · 4% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcoming front porch leads to entry framed by home office with French doors. Family room with a wall of windows providing an abundance of natural light. Island kitchen with built-in seating space extends to the dining area with a wall of windows. Primary suite offers a spacious bedroom, French door entry to primary bathroom, dual vanities, glass enclosed shower, a split walk-in closet and a linen closet. Secondary bedrooms just off the front entry. Covered patio. Utility room and mud room just off the rear two-car garage.

Key facts

  • French door entry
  • Island kitchen
  • Front porch

Tags

FRONT PORCHHOME OFFICEISLAND KITCHENDINING AREAPRIMARY SUITEFRENCH DOOR ENTRY

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-444 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $361k (15.1% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (21.7% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $333k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
  • Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3407 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($399k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $332,573 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.78%
Cap rate
5.04%
Cash-on-cash
-4.48%
DSCR
0.80
GRM
10.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$491,753
List price
$424,900
Delta
-13.59%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
1708 Palo Duro Way 0.03mi 3/2.0 2,024 (-2%) 8mo $449,900 $222 90
1636 Palo Duro Way 0.04mi 3/2.0 2,024 (-2%) 10mo $502,900 $248 87
1709 Palo Duro Way 0.05mi 3/2.5 2,321 (+13%) 5mo $464,900 $200 70
2736 Acadia Mews 0.07mi 4/3.5 (+1) 2,338 (+14%) 3mo $474,900 $203 60
1604 Victoria Pl 0.11mi 4/3.5 (+1) 2,338 (+14%) 2mo $474,900 $203 59
1717 Palo Duro Way 0.06mi 4/3.5 (+1) 2,338 (+14%) 7mo $474,900 $203 58
2628 Muirwood Way 0.13mi 4/3.5 (+1) 2,338 (+14%) 4mo $475,900 $204 56
1624 Palo Duro Way 0.04mi 4/3.0 (+1) 2,349 (+14%) 12mo $499,999 $213 55
1604 Palo Duro Way 0.08mi 4/3.5 (+1) 2,338 (+14%) 10mo $524,900 $225 54
2621 Hardwood Dr 0.72mi 4/3.5 (+1) 2,050 (-0%) 2mo $594,000 $290 53
2442 Plumeria Ln 0.39mi 4/2.0 (+1) 2,305 (+12%) 9mo $525,000 $228 49
2512 Grinnel Dr 0.64mi 4/3.0 (+1) 2,196 (+7%) 12mo $530,000 $241 40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-27.4%
Equity multiple
0.10×
Total profit
$-106,748
Equity at exit
$63,354
10-year hold
IRR
-42.5%
Equity multiple
-0.40×
Total profit
$-166,498
Equity at exit
$36,738

Cash invested: $118,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
68 active · 8 under contract
Months of supply
40.8 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$509,990 ($228/sqft)
Median days on market
267 d
This list price
12% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+4.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

Home prices YoY
-23.1%
Rents YoY
-4.6%
Active inventory
3407
Price-to-rent
10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$3,326 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$2,228
Tax est. 1.5%
$531 /mo · $6,374/yr
Insurance
$177
HOA
$135
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$698
Net cashflow
$-444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,888
Max offer price $360,644
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-150 -5% $-297 +0% $-444 +5% $-591 +10% $-738
Rent -10% $-707 -5% $-575 +0% $-444 +5% $-313 +10% $-181
Rate -1.0pp $-230 -0.5pp $-336 base $-444 +0.5pp $-554 +1.0pp $-666

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$106,225
Closing costs
$12,747
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 8 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX 4.0 3.0 2545 $5,800 $2.28 21d 1 0.06mi
2712 Biltmore Dr Celina, TX 3.0 2.5 1964 $2,500 $1.27 0d 1 0.12mi
2612 Griffith Mews Celina, TX 3.0 2.0 2024 $3,050 $1.51 3d 1 0.18mi
1149 Beautyberry Ln Celina, TX 4.0 3.0 1930 $2,595 $1.34 17d 1 1.24mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX 4.0 3.0 2815 $2,995 $1.06 34d 1 1.33mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX 4.0 3.0 2395 $3,500 $1.46 92d 1 1.40mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX 4.0 3.0 2386 $2,895 $1.21 68d 1 1.43mi
3125 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX 3.0 2.5 2331 $3,300 $1.42 37d 1 1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Green energy and water-efficiency features including energy-efficient appliances, drought-tolerant plants, HVAC improvements, low-flow commode/fixtures, rain/freeze sensors, efficient windows, and thermostat
Financial info
Listing suitable for cash, conventional, FHA, and VA financing
HOA & community
Mandatory HOA with monthly fee ($135) covering front yard maintenance, grounds maintenance, management fees, and full use of facilitiesHOA managed by Insight Association ManagementCommunity features include fishing, fitness center, park, and playground

Exterior

Parking
Assigned parkingGarage faces frontCovered parking spaces for 2Attached 2-car garage (approx. 18' wide x 21' long)
Security
Carbon monoxide detector(s)Smoke detector(s)
Utilities
City waterIndividual water meterCommunity mailboxConcrete curbs and sidewalksStreet concrete
Home design
Single family residenceResidential propertyOne storyNew construction (incomplete) built in 2026Smart home features present
Construction
Brick and stone veneer exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features
Covered porchGuttersWood fencingCreek on or near propertyFew trees, landscaped interior lot in a subdivision

Interior

Kitchen
Built-in cabinetsEat-in kitchenFarm sinkGranite countertopsKitchen islandPantry and walk-in pantryDishwasherDisposalGas cooktopGas rangeMicrowave
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom on level 1 with walk-in closetTwo additional bedrooms on level 1 with walk-in closets
Flooring
CarpetCeramic tile
Bathrooms
Two full bathroomsPrimary bathroom with built-in cabinets, dual sinks, granite countertops, linen closet, medicine cabinet, separate shower, and separate vanitiesSecond bathroom with built-in cabinets and granite countertop
Heating & cooling
Central heating (natural gas)Central airCeiling fansThermostat (part of green energy features)
Interior features
Cable TV availableDecorative lightingEat-in kitchenHigh speed internet availablePantrySmart home systemWalk-in closetsTwo living areasOne dining area10 total roomsOne-level layout
Laundry & utility
Utility room with built-in cabinets and room for freezer

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $424,900 Active 64 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $424,900 Active 62 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $424,900 Active 61 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $424,900 Active 60 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $424,900 Active 59 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $424,900 Active 56 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $424,900 Active 55 DOM
  8. 2026-07-30
    days on market $424,900 Active 54 DOM
  9. 2026-07-28
    days on market $424,900 Active 53 DOM
  10. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $424,900 Active 51 DOM
  11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $449,900 Active 49 DOM
  12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $449,900 Active 48 DOM
  13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $449,900 Active 47 DOM
  14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $449,900 Active 46 DOM
  15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $449,900 Active 45 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $449,900 Active 43 DOM
  17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $449,900 Active 42 DOM
  18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $449,900 Active 41 DOM
  19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $449,900 Active 40 DOM
  20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $449,900 Active 39 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $449,900 Active 38 DOM
  22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $449,900 Active 37 DOM
  23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $449,900 Active 36 DOM
  24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $449,900 Active 35 DOM
  25. 2026-07-10
    price $449,900 Active 34 DOM
  26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $483,900 Active 34 DOM
  27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $483,900 Active 32 DOM
  28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $483,900 Active 31 DOM
  29. 2026-07-06
    days on market $483,900 Active 30 DOM
  30. 2026-07-05
    days on market $483,900 Active 29 DOM
  31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $483,900 Active 28 DOM
  32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $483,900 Active 27 DOM
  33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $483,900 Active 26 DOM
  34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $483,900 Active 25 DOM
  35. 2026-06-29
    price $483,900 Active 24 DOM
    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Welcoming front porch leads to an entry with a home office featuring French doors. Family room features a wood mantel fireplace and a wall of windows providing an abundance of natural light. Island kitchen with built-in seating space and 5-burner gas cooktop extends to the dining area with a wall of windows. Primary suite offers a spacious bedroom and French door entry to the primary bathroom with dual vanities, glass-enclosed shower, a split walk-in closet, and a linen closet. Secondary bedrooms are just off the front entry. Covered backyard patio. Utility room and mud room are just off the rear two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

  36. 2026-06-29
    days on market $474,900 Active 24 DOM
    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Welcoming front porch leads to an entry with a home office featuring French doors. Family room features a wood mantel fireplace and a wall of windows providing an abundance of natural light. Island kitchen with built-in seating space and 5-burner gas cooktop extends to the dining area with a wall of windows. Primary suite offers a spacious bedroom and French door entry to the primary bathroom with dual vanities, glass-enclosed shower, a split walk-in closet, and a linen closet. Secondary bedrooms are just off the front entry. Covered backyard patio. Utility room and mud room are just off the rear two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

  37. 2026-06-28
    days on market $474,900 Active 23 DOM
  38. 2026-06-27
    days on market $474,900 Active 22 DOM
  39. 2026-06-26
    days on market $474,900 Active 21 DOM
  40. 2026-06-24
    days on market $474,900 Active 19 DOM
  41. 2026-06-22
    days on market $474,900 Active 17 DOM
  42. 2026-06-21
    days on market $474,900 Active 16 DOM
  43. 2026-06-18
    days on market $474,900 Active 13 DOM
  44. 2026-06-17
    days on market $474,900 Active 12 DOM
  45. 2026-06-16
    days on market $474,900 Active 11 DOM
  46. 2026-06-15
    days on market $474,900 Active 10 DOM
  47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $474,900 Active 8 DOM
  48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $474,900 Active 4 DOM
  49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $474,900 Active 3 DOM
  50. 2026-06-07
    days on marketlisting id $474,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$39,909
− Mortgage interest
−$23,801
− Property taxes
−$6,374
− Insurance
−$2,124
− Repairs & maintenance
−$3,193
− Management
−$3,193
− HOA
−$1,620
− Depreciation
−$12,361
Taxable loss
−$12,756
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$3,062
After-tax cash flow
$-2,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
  • Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures the system is running efficiently and quietly, attracting tenants.
  • Resale Interior updates (e.g., new flooring, paint, fixtures) — Modernizes the interior and makes the home more attractive to potential buyers.
D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marcy B Lykins El F TX #1,243/4,322 Nat'l #17,190/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Celina ISD
NCES district ID
4813290
Math proficiency
50% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency
61% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income
$83,282
Composite
50.49/100
National rank
#1853
State rank
#71 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

Score
68/100
State rank
#450
US rank
#9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Celina, TX
County
Collin County · 1,210,074 people
City population
34,260
Metro
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP)
34,260
Household income
$168,250
Rent vs Own
8.0% rent · 92.0% own
Severe rent burden
25% of renters

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,210,074 people
By 2030
1,358,201 · +12.2%
By 2040
1,654,061 · +36.7%
By 2050
1,937,359 · +60.1%
By 2075
2,567,039 · +112.1%
By 2100
2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
Race & ethnicity
White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 9%
Common ancestry
Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home
83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

2024 margin
R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing
+14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
All cycles
2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+1.7% since first listed
6 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-29 Price Changed $483,900 NTREIS
  • 2026-06-29 Price Changed $483,900 Zillow
  • 2026-06-05 Listed $483,900 Greater Lansing AoR
  • 2026-06-05 Listed $474,900 NTREIS
  • 2026-06-03 Price Changed $474,900 Zillow
  • 2026-05-30 Listed $475,900 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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