1633 Asbury Ln · Celina, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 109°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 22 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 27.0%
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 4 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 5 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +13.6/15.0
- Cash flow +7.9/30.0
- Schools +5.3/10.0
- Condition / age +4.8/5.0
- Livability +3.4/5.0
- 1% rule +2.8/10.0
- DSCR +2.0/10.0
- Rent growth +1.3/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$424,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Welcoming front porch leads to entry framed by home office with French doors. Family room with a wall of windows providing an abundance of natural light. Island kitchen with built-in seating space extends to the dining area with a wall of windows. Primary suite offers a spacious bedroom, French door entry to primary bathroom, dual vanities, glass enclosed shower, a split walk-in closet and a linen closet. Secondary bedrooms just off the front entry. Covered patio. Utility room and mud room just off the rear two-car garage.
Key facts
- French door entry
- Island kitchen
- Front porch
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k. Condition is rated excellent.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-444 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $361k (15.1% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (21.7% below list).
- Recommended offer: $333k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
- Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3407 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($399k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.78% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.04%
- Cash-on-cash
- -4.48%
- DSCR
- 0.80
- GRM
- 10.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $491,753
- List price
- $424,900
- Delta
- -13.59%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1708 Palo Duro Way | 0.03mi | 3/2.0 | 2,024 (-2%) | 8mo | $449,900 | $222 | 90 |
| 1636 Palo Duro Way | 0.04mi | 3/2.0 | 2,024 (-2%) | 10mo | $502,900 | $248 | 87 |
| 1709 Palo Duro Way | 0.05mi | 3/2.5 | 2,321 (+13%) | 5mo | $464,900 | $200 | 70 |
| 2736 Acadia Mews | 0.07mi | 4/3.5 (+1) | 2,338 (+14%) | 3mo | $474,900 | $203 | 60 |
| 1604 Victoria Pl | 0.11mi | 4/3.5 (+1) | 2,338 (+14%) | 2mo | $474,900 | $203 | 59 |
| 1717 Palo Duro Way | 0.06mi | 4/3.5 (+1) | 2,338 (+14%) | 7mo | $474,900 | $203 | 58 |
| 2628 Muirwood Way | 0.13mi | 4/3.5 (+1) | 2,338 (+14%) | 4mo | $475,900 | $204 | 56 |
| 1624 Palo Duro Way | 0.04mi | 4/3.0 (+1) | 2,349 (+14%) | 12mo | $499,999 | $213 | 55 |
| 1604 Palo Duro Way | 0.08mi | 4/3.5 (+1) | 2,338 (+14%) | 10mo | $524,900 | $225 | 54 |
| 2621 Hardwood Dr | 0.72mi | 4/3.5 (+1) | 2,050 (-0%) | 2mo | $594,000 | $290 | 53 |
| 2442 Plumeria Ln | 0.39mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 2,305 (+12%) | 9mo | $525,000 | $228 | 49 |
| 2512 Grinnel Dr | 0.64mi | 4/3.0 (+1) | 2,196 (+7%) | 12mo | $530,000 | $241 | 40 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -27.4%
- Equity multiple
- 0.10×
- Total profit
- $-106,748
- Equity at exit
- $63,354
- IRR
- -42.5%
- Equity multiple
- -0.40×
- Total profit
- $-166,498
- Equity at exit
- $36,738
Cash invested: $118,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 68 active · 8 under contract
- Months of supply
- 40.8 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $509,990 ($228/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 267 d
- This list price
- 12% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +4.7% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 75009
- Home prices YoY
- -23.1%
- Rents YoY
- -4.6%
- Active inventory
- 3407
- Price-to-rent
- 10.6×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,326 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$2,228
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$531 /mo · $6,374/yr
- Insurance
- −$177
- HOA
- −$135
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$698
- Net cashflow
- $-444
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-150 | -5% $-297 | +0% $-444 | +5% $-591 | +10% $-738 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-707 | -5% $-575 | +0% $-444 | +5% $-313 | +10% $-181 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-230 | -0.5pp $-336 | base $-444 | +0.5pp $-554 | +1.0pp $-666 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $106,225
- Closing costs
- $12,747
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 8 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2545 | $5,800 | $2.28 | 21d | 1 | 0.06mi |
| 2712 Biltmore Dr Celina, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1964 | $2,500 | $1.27 | 0d | 1 | 0.12mi |
| 2612 Griffith Mews Celina, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2024 | $3,050 | $1.51 | 3d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 1149 Beautyberry Ln Celina, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1930 | $2,595 | $1.34 | 17d | 1 | 1.24mi |
| 2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2815 | $2,995 | $1.06 | 34d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2395 | $3,500 | $1.46 | 92d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2386 | $2,895 | $1.21 | 68d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 3125 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2331 | $3,300 | $1.42 | 37d | 1 | 1.47mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Green energy and water-efficiency features including energy-efficient appliances, drought-tolerant plants, HVAC improvements, low-flow commode/fixtures, rain/freeze sensors, efficient windows, and thermostat
- Financial info
- Listing suitable for cash, conventional, FHA, and VA financing
- HOA & community
- Mandatory HOA with monthly fee ($135) covering front yard maintenance, grounds maintenance, management fees, and full use of facilitiesHOA managed by Insight Association ManagementCommunity features include fishing, fitness center, park, and playground
Exterior
- Parking
- Assigned parkingGarage faces frontCovered parking spaces for 2Attached 2-car garage (approx. 18' wide x 21' long)
- Security
- Carbon monoxide detector(s)Smoke detector(s)
- Utilities
- City waterIndividual water meterCommunity mailboxConcrete curbs and sidewalksStreet concrete
- Home design
- Single family residenceResidential propertyOne storyNew construction (incomplete) built in 2026Smart home features present
- Construction
- Brick and stone veneer exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
- Exterior features
- Covered porchGuttersWood fencingCreek on or near propertyFew trees, landscaped interior lot in a subdivision
Interior
- Kitchen
- Built-in cabinetsEat-in kitchenFarm sinkGranite countertopsKitchen islandPantry and walk-in pantryDishwasherDisposalGas cooktopGas rangeMicrowave
- Bedrooms
- Primary bedroom on level 1 with walk-in closetTwo additional bedrooms on level 1 with walk-in closets
- Flooring
- CarpetCeramic tile
- Bathrooms
- Two full bathroomsPrimary bathroom with built-in cabinets, dual sinks, granite countertops, linen closet, medicine cabinet, separate shower, and separate vanitiesSecond bathroom with built-in cabinets and granite countertop
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (natural gas)Central airCeiling fansThermostat (part of green energy features)
- Interior features
- Cable TV availableDecorative lightingEat-in kitchenHigh speed internet availablePantrySmart home systemWalk-in closetsTwo living areasOne dining area10 total roomsOne-level layout
- Laundry & utility
- Utility room with built-in cabinets and room for freezer
Listing history 50 events
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2026-08-08days on market $424,900 Active 64 DOM
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2026-08-06days on market $424,900 Active 62 DOM
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2026-08-05days on market $424,900 Active 61 DOM
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2026-08-04days on market $424,900 Active 60 DOM
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2026-08-03days on market $424,900 Active 59 DOM
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2026-07-31days on market $424,900 Active 56 DOM
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2026-07-30days on market $424,900 Active 55 DOM
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2026-07-30days on market $424,900 Active 54 DOM
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2026-07-28days on market $424,900 Active 53 DOM
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2026-07-26pricedays on market $424,900 Active 51 DOM
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2026-07-24days on market $449,900 Active 49 DOM
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2026-07-23days on market $449,900 Active 48 DOM
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2026-07-22days on market $449,900 Active 47 DOM
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2026-07-21days on market $449,900 Active 46 DOM
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2026-07-20days on market $449,900 Active 45 DOM
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2026-07-18days on market $449,900 Active 43 DOM
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2026-07-18days on market $449,900 Active 42 DOM
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2026-07-16days on market $449,900 Active 41 DOM
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2026-07-15days on market $449,900 Active 40 DOM
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2026-07-14days on market $449,900 Active 39 DOM
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2026-07-13days on market $449,900 Active 38 DOM
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2026-07-13days on market $449,900 Active 37 DOM
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2026-07-11days on market $449,900 Active 36 DOM
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2026-07-10days on market $449,900 Active 35 DOM
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2026-07-10price $449,900 Active 34 DOM
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2026-07-09days on market $483,900 Active 34 DOM
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2026-07-07days on market $483,900 Active 32 DOM
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2026-07-06days on market $483,900 Active 31 DOM
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2026-07-06days on market $483,900 Active 30 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $483,900 Active 29 DOM
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2026-07-03days on market $483,900 Active 28 DOM
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2026-07-02days on market $483,900 Active 27 DOM
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2026-07-01days on market $483,900 Active 26 DOM
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2026-06-30days on market $483,900 Active 25 DOM
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2026-06-29price $483,900 Active 24 DOM
Show marketing remark (693 chars)
Welcoming front porch leads to an entry with a home office featuring French doors. Family room features a wood mantel fireplace and a wall of windows providing an abundance of natural light. Island kitchen with built-in seating space and 5-burner gas cooktop extends to the dining area with a wall of windows. Primary suite offers a spacious bedroom and French door entry to the primary bathroom with dual vanities, glass-enclosed shower, a split walk-in closet, and a linen closet. Secondary bedrooms are just off the front entry. Covered backyard patio. Utility room and mud room are just off the rear two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.
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2026-06-29days on market $474,900 Active 24 DOM
Show marketing remark (693 chars)
Welcoming front porch leads to an entry with a home office featuring French doors. Family room features a wood mantel fireplace and a wall of windows providing an abundance of natural light. Island kitchen with built-in seating space and 5-burner gas cooktop extends to the dining area with a wall of windows. Primary suite offers a spacious bedroom and French door entry to the primary bathroom with dual vanities, glass-enclosed shower, a split walk-in closet, and a linen closet. Secondary bedrooms are just off the front entry. Covered backyard patio. Utility room and mud room are just off the rear two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.
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2026-06-28days on market $474,900 Active 23 DOM
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2026-06-27days on market $474,900 Active 22 DOM
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2026-06-26days on market $474,900 Active 21 DOM
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2026-06-24days on market $474,900 Active 19 DOM
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2026-06-22days on market $474,900 Active 17 DOM
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2026-06-21days on market $474,900 Active 16 DOM
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2026-06-18days on market $474,900 Active 13 DOM
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2026-06-17days on market $474,900 Active 12 DOM
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2026-06-16days on market $474,900 Active 11 DOM
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2026-06-15days on market $474,900 Active 10 DOM
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2026-06-13days on market $474,900 Active 8 DOM
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2026-06-09days on market $474,900 Active 4 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $474,900 Active 3 DOM
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2026-06-07days on market $474,900 Active 2 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $39,909
- − Mortgage interest
- −$23,801
- − Property taxes
- −$6,374
- − Insurance
- −$2,124
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,193
- − Management
- −$3,193
- − HOA
- −$1,620
- − Depreciation
- −$12,361
- Taxable loss
- −$12,756
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$3,062
- After-tax cash flow
- $-2,267/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos
This home is in excellent condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
- Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures the system is running efficiently and quietly, attracting tenants. ↑
- Resale Interior updates (e.g., new flooring, paint, fixtures) — Modernizes the interior and makes the home more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Celina ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4813290
- Math proficiency
- 50% ▼ -15.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 61% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $83,282
- Composite
- 50.49/100
- National rank
- #1853
- State rank
- #71 of 826 in TX
Livability — Celina
- Score
- 68/100
- State rank
- #450
- US rank
- #9135
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Celina, TX
- County
- Collin County · 1,210,074 people
- City population
- 34,260
- Metro
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 34,260
- Household income
- $168,250
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 25% of renters
Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,210,074 people
- By 2030
- 1,358,201 · +12.2%
- By 2040
- 1,654,061 · +36.7%
- By 2050
- 1,937,359 · +60.1%
- By 2075
- 2,567,039 · +112.1%
- By 2100
- 2,952,048 · +144.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 9%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%
Political lean MEDSL · Collin
- 2024 margin
- R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -83.07%
- Current HPI
- 276.6307
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -4.62%
- Metro
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
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| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
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| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
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| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
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| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
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Price history
+1.7% since first listed6 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-29 Price Changed $483,900 NTREIS
- 2026-06-29 Price Changed $483,900 Zillow
- 2026-06-05 Listed $483,900 Greater Lansing AoR
- 2026-06-05 Listed $474,900 NTREIS
- 2026-06-03 Price Changed $474,900 Zillow
- 2026-05-30 Listed $475,900 Zillow
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…