10418 Mulberry · Cobb, CA 95461

$189,000

1 bd · 2.5 ba · 778 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1948 0.31 ac lot Est $188k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this sweet spot in Loch Lomond! This vintage cabin has been in the same family for 40 years and it's time to pass it along to a lucky new owner. Placed on a spacious double lot near the Italian Village, this welcoming home invites you to relax on the deck amongst the trees and enjoy the magestic energy of the mountain. Covered patio greets you as you enter the old-fashioned charm of the living room, complete with wood-burning stove. Big windows let in the natural light and views of the trees. Galley kitchen leads you through to the spacious bonus room that could be an additional bedroom, office, or dining area. Out back is the large deck for gathering with family and friends to make memories. There's even a second bathroom with shower accessed from the deck area to accommodate all of your guests. Under the house is a one car garage/workshop/storage area and the backyard has lots of flat, usable area for gardening and games. Fire hydrant right out front and a stone's throw to the fire station, plus walking distance to the community pool and restaurant. Don't miss out on this gem!

Key facts

• Large deck
• Galley kitchen
• Spacious double lot

Tags

• VINTAGE CABIN
• SPACIOUS DOUBLE LOT
• COVERED PATIO
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• LARGE DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Additional parcel present; Lot size reported in assessor's data (10,000–19,999 sq ft)
• HOA & community: Community amenities nearby include golf course access, biking and hiking trails, and preserve/public land

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Circular driveway; Rear-entry garage; Total parking for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: House; Single-story; Entry on level 1
• Construction: Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Repairs cosmetic (property condition); No ADU
• Exterior features: Patio; Deck; Wood and concrete patio/porch surfaces; Has view; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Electric oven; Water heater unit
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms; All bedrooms on ground floor
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One 1/4 bathroom; Two 3/4 bathrooms; Shower(s)
• Heating & cooling: Wall heater; Wood stove
• Interior features: Furnished; Storage space; One-level layout; Main floor bedrooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $427 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $186k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.3% in Cobb — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#589 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Kelseyville Unified (town): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,150 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,165 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.68%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,276
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10466 Redwood Rd	0.08mi	2/1.0 (+1)	740 (-5%)	6mo	$179,000	$242	72
10537 Foothill Rd	0.14mi	2/2.0 (+1)	768 (-1%)	24mo	$165,000	$215	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,525
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $31,620
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95461

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $790/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,438

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $534	-5% $480	+0% $427	+5% $373	+10% $320
Rent	-10% $270	-5% $349	+0% $427	+5% $505	+10% $583
Rate	-1.0pp $522	-0.5pp $475	base $427	+0.5pp $378	+1.0pp $328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $189,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $790 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,436 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$646/yr (+$54/mo · 81.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$790
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,899
• − Management: −$1,899
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $2,116
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$508
• After-tax cash flow: $4,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kelseyville Unified
• NCES district ID: 0619320
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,210
• Composite: 25.19/100
• National rank: #12920
• State rank: #1150 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Cobb

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #589
• US rank: #19147

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,265
• Population (ZIP): 3,720

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Portuguese 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.72%
• Current HPI: 161.0914
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $189,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-30 Listed $189,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $790 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.