7205 E Palo Brea Dr · Gold Canyon, AZ 85118

$350,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · Townhouse public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1998 4,166 sqft lot Est $400k · 12% under $221/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Terrific patio home in the outstanding adult community of Mountainbrook Village. This bright, beautiful home is available fully furnished and move in ready. Extended, private back patio overlooks mature desert landscape. Community features 18 hole golf course, restaurant, activity center, fitness center, hobby & game rooms, ballroom, library, computer lab and much more!

Key facts

• Golf
• Swimming pools
• Pickleball

Tags

• PRIVATE COVERED PATIO
• DESERT LANDSCAPING
• NEW WATER HEATER
• GOLF
• PICKLEBALL
• SWIMMING POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $105; semi-annual fee of $698; HOA covers grounds maintenance, front yard maintenance, and exterior maintenance; Community amenities include pool, community spa (heated), golf, tennis courts, pickleball courts, and biking/walking paths; Association rules restrict visible trucks, trailers, RVs, and boats

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2; 2-car garage with garage door opener and attached garage cabinets
• Utilities: Private sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Attached gemini/twin home; Fee simple ownership; Desert and mountain views
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction
• Exterior features: Desert front and back landscaping; Gravel/stone front and back; Block fencing; Tile roof; Asphalt road (city maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Laminate counters; Reverse osmosis water filtration; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Space for 2 bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity in bath; Eat-in kitchen; 9+ ft flat ceilings; Home offered furnished (see remarks); 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Laminate countertops; Solar screens; Dual-pane windows; Refrigerator, Dishwasher, Garbage disposal
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry (inside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($832/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $310k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.9% in Gold Canyon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#225 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 430 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $280k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,567 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $399,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7164 E Canyon Wren Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,438 (+1%)	5mo	$454,000	$316	90
7361 E Rugged Ironwood Rd	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,395 (-2%)	7mo	$300,000	$215	85
7094 E Palo Brea Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,373 (-4%)	6mo	$330,000	$240	85
7217 E Canyon Wren Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,524 (+7%)	3mo	$426,500	$280	84
7250 E Palo Brea Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,557 (+9%)	3mo	$354,000	$227	81
7328 E Palo Brea Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,543 (+8%)	4mo	$350,000	$227	79
7195 E Canyon Wren Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,567 (+10%)	3mo	$390,000	$249	78
7082 E Palo Brea Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,511 (+6%)	14mo	$445,000	$295	75
7143 E Canyon Wren Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,574 (+10%)	9mo	$365,000	$232	72
5789 S Pinnacle Ln	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,445 (+1%)	4mo	$450,000	$311	66
5711 S Pinnacle Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,538 (+8%)	3mo	$505,000	$328	51
8162 E Pinnacle Pl	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,573 (+10%)	9mo	$530,000	$337	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-52,279
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-39,755
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85118

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Active inventory: 430
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,096 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,088/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$221
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,008

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $267	-5% $168	+0% $69	+5% $-30	+10% $-129
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-53	+0% $69	+5% $192	+10% $314
Rate	-1.0pp $246	-0.5pp $158	base $69	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6497 S Ginty Dr Gold Canyon, AZ	2.0	2.0	1673	$4,300	$2.57	25d	1	0.36mi
6382 S Fairway Dr Gold Canyon, AZ	2.0	2.0	1570	$3,900	$2.48	25d	1	0.51mi
8320 E Masters Rd Gold Canyon, AZ	2.0	2.0	1732	$3,900	$2.25	2d	1	0.71mi
6838 E Las Animas Trl Gold Canyon, AZ	3.0	3.0	1638	$3,500	$2.14	6d	1	0.93mi
6816 S Russet Sky Way Gold Canyon, AZ	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,800	$1.32	25d	1	0.98mi
4670 S Jalapa Ln Gold Canyon, AZ	3.0	2.0	1780	$4,300	$2.42	25d	1	1.01mi
6494 S Foothills Dr Gold Canyon, AZ	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,300	$1.59	17d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $221 · $2,652/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $350,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $350,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $350,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $350,000
16. 2026-05-07
    price $364,500
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $365,000 Active
18. 2026-02-16
    historical
19. 2026-01-30
    price $365,000
20. 2025-11-07
    listed $375,000 Active
21. 2021-11-23
    soldstatus $280,000
22. 2019-05-06
    soldstatus $200,000 Closed 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    Terrific patio home in the outstanding adult community of Mountainbrook Village. This bright, beautiful home is available fully furnished and move in ready. Extended, private back patio overlooks mature desert landscape. Community features 18 hole golf course, restaurant, activity center, fitness center, hobby & game rooms, ballroom, library, computer lab and much more!

23. 2019-05-06
    soldstatus $200,000

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    Terrific patio home in the outstanding adult community of Mountainbrook Village. This bright, beautiful home is available fully furnished and move in ready. Extended, private back patio overlooks mature desert landscape. Community features 18 hole golf course, restaurant, activity center, fitness center, hobby & game rooms, ballroom, library, computer lab and much more!

24. 2019-04-06
    status Pending 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    Terrific patio home in the outstanding adult community of Mountainbrook Village. This bright, beautiful home is available fully furnished and move in ready. Extended, private back patio overlooks mature desert landscape. Community features 18 hole golf course, restaurant, activity center, fitness center, hobby & game rooms, ballroom, library, computer lab and much more!

25. 2019-03-23
    listed $199,000 Active 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    Terrific patio home in the outstanding adult community of Mountainbrook Village. This bright, beautiful home is available fully furnished and move in ready. Extended, private back patio overlooks mature desert landscape. Community features 18 hole golf course, restaurant, activity center, fitness center, hobby & game rooms, ballroom, library, computer lab and much more!

26. 2004-06-02
    soldstatus $129,900
27. 2004-05-31
    soldstatus $129,900
28. 2004-04-09
    historical
29. 2003-10-31
    listed $129,900
30. 1998-10-27
    soldstatus $99,849

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,088 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,310 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$222/yr (+$19/mo · 10.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$2,088
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,972
• − Management: −$2,972
• − HOA: −$2,652
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$5,073
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,217
• After-tax cash flow: $2,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gold Canyon

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #225
• US rank: #21732

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gold Canyon, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 14,932
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,932
• Household income: $86,393
• Rent vs Own: 8.4% rent · 91.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 160.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Romanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.27%
• Current HPI: 255.6958
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+250.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $350,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $364,500 ARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $365,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $365,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $375,000 ARMLS
• 2021-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-06 Sold (MLS) $200,000 ARMLS
• 2019-04-06 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-03-23 Listed $199,000 ARMLS
• 2004-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $129,900 Public Records
• 2004-05-31 Sold (MLS) $129,900 ARMLS
• 2004-04-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-10-31 Listed $129,900 ARMLS
• 1998-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $99,849 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,088 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.