1729 Keelen Dr · Dellwood, MO 63136

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1959 6,621 sqft lot $123/sqft · 7% below area Est $135k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated 3-bedroom 1 bath home in Dellwood Mo. Spacious home with hardwood floors, fresh paint, remodeled eat-in kitchen with refrigerator, gas stove, and dishwasher. Kitchen has lots of windows and natural light! Bathroom has tub with ceramic tile great for easy maintenance. Large open basement freshly painted and clean. Furnace has been replaced. New gutters, fresh exterior paint, and great curb appeal. Large, fenced yard great for entertaining, pets, or children.

Key facts

• 6,621 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1959

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 10.4% in Dellwood — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#239 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, crime D-.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $86k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.50%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $134,610
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -7.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10515 Alliance Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,014 (0%)	0mo	$112,900	$111	94
1646 Hudson Rd	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,014 (0%)	2mo	$164,500	$162	90
10418 Quaker Dr	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,014 (0%)	2mo	$64,900	$64	89
1716 Atmore Dr	0.04mi	3/1.0	950 (-6%)	2mo	$130,000	$137	86
1923 Nashua Dr	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,014 (0%)	1mo	$149,900	$148	81
10615 Alliance Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	975 (-4%)	3mo	$119,900	$123	81
1618 Keelen Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	936 (-8%)	3mo	$160,000	$171	76
10257 Dacey Dr	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,014 (0%)	2mo	$120,000	$118	72
10269 Dacey Dr	0.49mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (0%)	1mo	$169,000	$167	72
1715 Hudson Rd	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,145 (+13%)	1mo	$125,000	$109	66
10719 Trask Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	900 (-11%)	3mo	$143,500	$159	64
10146 Clairmont Dr	0.67mi	4/1.0 (+1)	970 (-4%)	3mo	$25,000	$26	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $35,160
• Equity at exit: $61,849

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $106,214
• Equity at exit: $99,958

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,889/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,095

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $225	+0% $190	+5% $154	+10% $119
Rent	-10% $84	-5% $137	+0% $190	+5% $242	+10% $295
Rate	-1.0pp $253	-0.5pp $221	base $190	+0.5pp $157	+1.0pp $124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10304 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,250	$0.83	44d	1	0.37mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	24d	1	0.48mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	44d	1	0.48mi
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	44d	1	0.49mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	24d	1	0.56mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	24d	1	0.73mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	3d	1	0.80mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	44d	1	0.82mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	44d	1	0.84mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	44d	1	0.85mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	24d	1	0.85mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	24d	1	0.87mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	8d	1	0.90mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	24d	1	0.92mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	44d	1	1.05mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	2d	1	1.07mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	15d	1	1.09mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	44d	1	1.11mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	44d	1	1.14mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	44d	1	1.15mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	8d	1	1.17mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	13d	1	1.17mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	24d	1	1.17mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	24d	1	1.18mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	15d	1	1.22mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	22d	1	1.22mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	8d	1	1.25mi
13061 Lord Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	22d	1	1.26mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	44d	1	1.27mi
9812 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,495	$1.00	22d	1	1.29mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	2d	1	1.29mi
920 Hutton Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	44d	1	1.31mi
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	44d	1	1.32mi
11470 Latonka Trl Florissant, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	843	$1,050	$1.25	44d	3	1.34mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	4d	1	1.36mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	44d	1	1.37mi
502 Averill Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	44d	1	1.37mi
10501 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,090	$0.96	44d	1	1.38mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	44d	1	1.38mi
1536 Springlet Ct #31 Florissant, MO	3.0	2.5	1161	$1,450	$1.25	8d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Updated 3-bedroom 1 bath home in Dellwood Mo. Spacious home with hardwood floors, fresh paint, remodeled eat-in kitchen with refrigerator, gas stove, and dishwasher. Kitchen has lots of windows and natural light! Bathroom has tub with ceramic tile great for easy maintenance. Large open basement freshly painted and clean. Furnace has been replaced. New gutters, fresh exterior paint, and great curb appeal. Large, fenced yard great for entertaining, pets, or children.

2. 2026-03-23
   price $125,000 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Updated 3-bedroom 1 bath home in Dellwood Mo. Spacious home with hardwood floors, fresh paint, remodeled eat-in kitchen with refrigerator, gas stove, and dishwasher. Kitchen has lots of windows and natural light! Bathroom has tub with ceramic tile great for easy maintenance. Large open basement freshly painted and clean. Furnace has been replaced. New gutters, fresh exterior paint, and great curb appeal. Large, fenced yard great for entertaining, pets, or children.

3. 2026-03-09
   listed $135,000 Active 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Updated 3-bedroom 1 bath home in Dellwood Mo. Spacious home with hardwood floors, fresh paint, remodeled eat-in kitchen with refrigerator, gas stove, and dishwasher. Kitchen has lots of windows and natural light! Bathroom has tub with ceramic tile great for easy maintenance. Large open basement freshly painted and clean. Furnace has been replaced. New gutters, fresh exterior paint, and great curb appeal. Large, fenced yard great for entertaining, pets, or children.

4. 2026-03-09
   historical $135,000 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Updated 3-bedroom 1 bath home in Dellwood Mo. Spacious home with hardwood floors, fresh paint, remodeled eat-in kitchen with refrigerator, gas stove, and dishwasher. Kitchen has lots of windows and natural light! Bathroom has tub with ceramic tile great for easy maintenance. Large open basement freshly painted and clean. Furnace has been replaced. New gutters, fresh exterior paint, and great curb appeal. Large, fenced yard great for entertaining, pets, or children.

5. 2026-01-29
   price $115,000
6. 2026-01-10
   price $120,000
7. 2025-12-28
   listed $130,000 Active
8. 2025-12-28
   historical
9. 2025-12-20
   historical $1,410
10. 2025-12-10
    listed $1,410
11. 2025-10-16
    soldstatus Closed
12. 2025-09-10
    status Pending
13. 2025-08-28
    price $91,400
14. 2025-08-12
    listed $94,900 Active
15. 2008-05-30
    soldstatus $86,000
16. 2007-10-23
    soldstatus $60,000
17. 2007-10-17
    soldstatus $45,000
18. 1995-08-25
    soldstatus
19. 1995-08-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,889 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,889 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,021
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,889
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,282
• − Management: −$1,282
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$73
• After-tax cash flow: $2,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Dellwood

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #239
• US rank: #11618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dellwood, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+177.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Listed $135,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Coming Soon $135,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-28 Listed $130,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-28 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-20 Rental Removed $1,410 ZUMPER1
• 2025-12-10 Listed for Rent $1,410 ZUMPER1
• 2025-10-16 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-10 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $91,400 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Listed $94,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 2007-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2007-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1995-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,889 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.