1006 Lonesome Way · Princeton, TX 75407

$263,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,609 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,970 sqft lot $163/sqft · 16% below area Est $305k · 14% under $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Presenting 1006 Lonesome Way, a residence defined by its functional interior. The floor plan highlights a kitchen island and an accent backsplash in kitchen. The space includes stainless steel appliances. The layout incorporates double sinks in primary bathroom. The primary bed room have a walking closet. Exterior elements feature a covered patio and a fenced in backyard. The residence displays fresh interior paint. This structure is complete. Home comes with a 100-Day Home Warranty and a 7-Day Home Test Drive to move in 7 days early for free

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Fenced in backyard
• Covered patio

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND
• ACCENT BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DOUBLE SINKS
• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED IN BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $263k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-297 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harper El (math 50% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 436 students, 56% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1410 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,452 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.85%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,061
• List price: $263,000
• Delta: -13.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 Saddle Club Way	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-4%)	1mo	$275,000	$179	79
906 Honey Maple St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,652 (+3%)	1mo	$265,000	$160	77
1002 Dry Gulch Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-10%)	2mo	$265,000	$182	77
702 Stampede Ln	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,592 (-1%)	2mo	$298,900	$188	76
624 Willow View Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+2%)	1mo	$295,000	$180	75
408 Rawhide Way	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (+3%)	2mo	$275,000	$165	75
1100 Western Way	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+1%)	4mo	$275,000	$170	73
611 Saddle Club Way	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,828 (+14%)	3mo	$280,000	$153	65
719 Stampede Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-10%)	2mo	$295,000	$203	64
705 Range Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+13%)	3mo	$294,900	$162	61
408 Stampede Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (+12%)	2mo	$298,000	$166	56
1445 Kinsdale Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-11%)	1mo	$244,990	$172	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-67,755
• Equity at exit: $39,214

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-107,294
• Equity at exit: $22,739

Cash invested: $73,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1410
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,164 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax from tax record: −$466 /mo · $5,590/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,540

Max offer price $210,452

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-149	-5% $-223	+0% $-297	+5% $-372	+10% $-446
Rent	-10% $-468	-5% $-383	+0% $-297	+5% $-212	+10% $-127
Rate	-1.0pp $-165	-0.5pp $-231	base $-297	+0.5pp $-366	+1.0pp $-435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,750
• Closing costs: $7,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
604 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1592	$2,050	$1.29	45d	1	0.08mi
611 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,100	$1.15	45d	1	0.09mi
717 Rawhide Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2193	$2,500	$1.14	45d	1	0.18mi
507 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,090	$1.04	14d	1	0.19mi
420 Gunsmoke Trl Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1865	$1,975	$1.06	9d	1	0.22mi
603 Smokey Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,100	$1.29	20d	1	0.25mi
412 Gunsmoke Trl Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2193	$2,000	$0.91	45d	1	0.25mi
513 Spur Rdg Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	19d	1	0.31mi
1103 Wagon Wheel Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2193	$2,500	$1.14	45d	1	0.32mi
408 Stampede Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,925	$1.07	45d	1	0.38mi
1306 Colonial Bluff Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	0d	1	0.40mi
1306 Colonial Bluff Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	9d	1	0.40mi
1006 Honey Maple St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1842	$1,950	$1.06	45d	1	0.42mi
1008 Honey Maple St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1825	$1,995	$1.09	26d	1	0.43mi
720 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2013	$2,250	$1.12	26d	1	0.44mi
1412 Chestnut Cove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,000	$1.22	22d	1	0.44mi
627 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	45d	1	0.45mi
1403 Forever Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2038	$2,250	$1.10	4d	1	0.48mi
503 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,149	$1.07	9d	1	0.49mi
603 Calm Springs Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2039	$2,250	$1.10	13d	1	0.51mi
1417 Forever Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1937	$2,100	$1.08	19d	1	0.51mi
1501 Hidden Bluff Xing Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,200	$1.23	14d	1	0.54mi
468 Pebble Brook Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2174	$2,250	$1.03	14d	1	0.64mi
810 Silverbell St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,749	$1.09	9d	1	0.68mi
905 Silverbell St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,850	$1.28	20d	1	0.70mi
815 Evergreen St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$1,999	$1.09	45d	1	0.71mi
780 Evergreen St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,069	$1.13	45d	1	0.72mi
905 Rosewood St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,956	$0.98	23d	1	0.77mi
922 Evergreen St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$1,900	$1.03	7d	1	0.78mi
913 Rosewood St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,050	$1.02	45d	1	0.78mi
917 Rosewood St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,100	$1.05	5d	1	0.79mi
715 Mulberry Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,695	$1.31	26d	1	0.80mi
1001 Rosewood St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$1,995	$1.00	26d	1	0.80mi
204 Marsh Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1722	$1,700	$0.99	45d	1	0.81mi
203 Marsh Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1586	$1,575	$0.99	9d	1	0.82mi
1204 Sequoia Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,165	$1.08	45d	1	0.83mi
1208 Sequoia Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,000	$1.09	45d	1	0.84mi
417 Sweet Shade Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1726	$1,900	$1.10	19d	1	0.84mi
409 Buckeye Ave Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1726	$1,850	$1.07	45d	1	0.84mi
414 Sweet Shade Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,900	$1.12	45d	1	0.84mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $263,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $263,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $263,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $263,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $263,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $263,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $263,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-05-15
   historical Active Option Contract 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Presenting 1006 Lonesome Way, a residence defined by its functional interior. The floor plan highlights a kitchen island and an accent backsplash in kitchen. The space includes stainless steel appliances. The layout incorporates double sinks in primary bathroom. The primary bed room have a walking closet. Exterior elements feature a covered patio and a fenced in backyard. The residence displays fresh interior paint. This structure is complete. Home comes with a 100-Day Home Warranty and a 7-Day Home Test Drive to move in 7 days early for free

9. 2026-05-07
   price $263,000 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Presenting 1006 Lonesome Way, a residence defined by its functional interior. The floor plan highlights a kitchen island and an accent backsplash in kitchen. The space includes stainless steel appliances. The layout incorporates double sinks in primary bathroom. The primary bed room have a walking closet. Exterior elements feature a covered patio and a fenced in backyard. The residence displays fresh interior paint. This structure is complete. Home comes with a 100-Day Home Warranty and a 7-Day Home Test Drive to move in 7 days early for free

10. 2026-04-23
    price $269,000 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    Presenting 1006 Lonesome Way, a residence defined by its functional interior. The floor plan highlights a kitchen island and an accent backsplash in kitchen. The space includes stainless steel appliances. The layout incorporates double sinks in primary bathroom. The primary bed room have a walking closet. Exterior elements feature a covered patio and a fenced in backyard. The residence displays fresh interior paint. This structure is complete. Home comes with a 100-Day Home Warranty and a 7-Day Home Test Drive to move in 7 days early for free

11. 2026-04-09
    price $277,000 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    Presenting 1006 Lonesome Way, a residence defined by its functional interior. The floor plan highlights a kitchen island and an accent backsplash in kitchen. The space includes stainless steel appliances. The layout incorporates double sinks in primary bathroom. The primary bed room have a walking closet. Exterior elements feature a covered patio and a fenced in backyard. The residence displays fresh interior paint. This structure is complete. Home comes with a 100-Day Home Warranty and a 7-Day Home Test Drive to move in 7 days early for free

12. 2026-03-16
    listed $286,000 Active 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    Presenting 1006 Lonesome Way, a residence defined by its functional interior. The floor plan highlights a kitchen island and an accent backsplash in kitchen. The space includes stainless steel appliances. The layout incorporates double sinks in primary bathroom. The primary bed room have a walking closet. Exterior elements feature a covered patio and a fenced in backyard. The residence displays fresh interior paint. This structure is complete. Home comes with a 100-Day Home Warranty and a 7-Day Home Test Drive to move in 7 days early for free

13. 2026-03-04
    soldstatus
14. 2025-12-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,590 · $466/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,590 · $466/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,732
• − Property taxes: −$5,590
• − Insurance: −$1,315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,077
• − Management: −$2,077
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$7,651
• Taxable loss: −$8,104
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,945
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,625/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a fresh paint job and modern appliances. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and value
• Both Landscaping and plantings — Enhances curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and plantings — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Princeton, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $263,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $269,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $277,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $286,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+44.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,590 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.