108 Ensenada Dr · Novato, CA 94949

$239,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 756 sqft · Manufactured · 75 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $317/sqft · 19% below area Est $297k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this brand new, beautiful & modern Clayton Homes Fairpoint manufactured home. Located in the desirable Los Robles Mobile Home Park, a 55+ gated community in Novato, this 2BR/1BA home features an open-concept layout w/9-ft ceilings, smooth drywall interiors & durable vinyl flooring for a luxurious feel throughout. The upgraded kit boasts solid surface countertops, hardwd cabinetry & a full Samsung appliance package, including refrigerator, range, dishwasher & disposal. Enjoy the outdoors on the lg covered deck overlooking beautiful green space - perfect for elaxing/entertaining. Many extras incl upgraded insulation, a 40-gal water heater & energy-efficient windows. Purchase comes w/an extended HomeFirst warranty protection plan. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, transportation & Hwy 101, the many community amenities include swimming pool, clubhouse, fitness room, bocce ball court & landscaped grounds. A rare opportunity for quality 55+ living in Marin County!

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2025
• Listed 74 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $590 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $226k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.4% in Novato — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#211 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Novato Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #160 of 517 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 74 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $225,599 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.53%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,471
• List price: $239,999
• Delta: -19.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-6,746
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $21,144
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94949

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,846 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $239,999

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $755	-5% $673	+0% $590	+5% $507	+10% $424
Rent	-10% $365	-5% $477	+0% $590	+5% $702	+10% $814
Rate	-1.0pp $710	-0.5pp $651	base $590	+0.5pp $527	+1.0pp $464

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
450 Entrada Dr Novato, CA	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,900	$2.83	11d	1	0.43mi
200 Posada del Sol Novato, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	1125	$2,738	$2.43	0d	1	0.49mi
217 Deborah Ct Unit 1 Novato, CA	1.0	1.5	750	$2,250	$3.00	45d	1	1.10mi
1009 Green Oak Dr Novato, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$2,500	$3.33	0d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,999 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,999 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,999 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,999 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,999 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,999 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 683-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $239,999 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $262,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $262,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $262,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $262,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $262,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $262,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $262,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $262,000 Active 54 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    listed $262,000 Active 1026-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1026 chars)

    Welcome to this brand new, beautiful & modern Clayton Homes Fairpoint manufactured home. Located in the desirable Los Robles Mobile Home Park, a 55+ gated community in Novato, this 2BR/1BA home features an open-concept layout w/9-ft ceilings, smooth drywall interiors & durable vinyl flooring for a luxurious feel throughout. The upgraded kit boasts solid surface countertops, hardwd cabinetry & a full Samsung appliance package, including refrigerator, range, dishwasher & disposal. Enjoy the outdoors on the lg covered deck overlooking beautiful green space - perfect for elaxing/entertaining. Many extras incl upgraded insulation, a 40-gal water heater & energy-efficient windows. Purchase comes w/an extended HomeFirst warranty protection plan. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, transportation & Hwy 101, the many community amenities include swimming pool, clubhouse, fitness room, bocce ball court & landscaped grounds. A rare opportunity for quality 55+ living in Marin County!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,732
• − Management: −$2,732
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable income: $3,460
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$830
• After-tax cash flow: $6,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern Clayton Homes Fairpoint manufactured home in Los Robles Mobile Home Park is in excellent condition with a good curb appeal and a well-maintained interior. It offers a good investment opportunity with minimal needed improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding a small outdoor seating area — A small outdoor seating area can increase the home's appeal for both resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding a small outdoor seating area — A small outdoor seating area can increase the home's appeal for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Novato Unified
• NCES district ID: 0627720
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,396
• Composite: 41.06/100
• National rank: #3576
• State rank: #160 of 517 in CA

Livability — Novato

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #6675

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Novato, CA
• County: Marin County · 243,328 people
• City population: 59,522
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,787
• Household income: $120,758
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Marin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 276,379 people
• By 2030: 282,942 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 292,937 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 300,449 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 316,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 303,948 · +10.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 16% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 5% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+63.9) · D 80.6% · R 16.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+63.9 2020: D+66.5 2016: D+62.9 2012: D+50.5 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -670.06%
• Current HPI: 299.6555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $262,000 BAREIS