2233 Firethorn Rd · Middle River, MD 21220

$199,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,365 sqft · Townhouse public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1956 1,632 sqft lot $146/sqft · 8% below area Est $218k · 8% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is waiting for YOU! A lovely 3 bedroom 1.5 bathroom townhome nestled in the sought out Hawthorn community. So many updates! You are greeted by a front covered porch, which is a great place to spend time relaxing. You will enter into an oversized living room with tons of natural light. The formal dining is right next to the kitchen and this layout gives you an open concept feel. Custom made cherry wood cabinets are the highlight of the kitchen. Stainless steel appliances. The upper level bathroom has so many updates. Hardwood floors are throughout the 1st and upper levels. The fully finished basement has brand new LVP flooring and recessed lighting. Enjoy time in the backyard which is fenced, paved walkway and a parking pad. Newer furnace, sump pump, and some windows. Don't miss out on this beauty!

Key facts

• Built 1956
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking; Other parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Permanent foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Partially fenced yard; No tidal water

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven/range; Refrigerator; Icemaker; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom on a lower level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Dining area; Wood floors; Fully finished basement with rear entrance
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.2% in Middle River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in MD, #2,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hawthorne Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #766 of 860 statewide, top 93%, 491 students, 87% FRL); Stemmers Run Middle (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #174 of 225 statewide, top 81%, 838 students, 68% FRL); Kenwood High (math 10% / reading 43%, grade F, #161 of 222 statewide, top 72%, 1,908 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 39% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 252 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.58%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,364
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -8.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2233 Firethorn Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,365 (0%)	1mo	$200,000	$147	99
2218 Southorn Rd	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,408 (+3%)	3mo	$190,000	$135	79
2169 Redthorn Rd	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,272 (-7%)	5mo	$161,000	$127	78
2247 Graythorn Rd	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,272 (-7%)	2mo	$233,000	$183	75
133 Riverthorn Rd	0.17mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,324 (-3%)	8mo	$147,500	$111	75
404 Grovethorn	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,274 (-7%)	4mo	$220,000	$173	72
2151 Coralthorn Rd	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,194 (-12%)	2mo	$185,500	$155	70
710 Kingston Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,319 (-3%)	1mo	$239,900	$182	66
237 Riverthorn Rd	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+12%)	1mo	$212,000	$138	66
2162 Vailthorn	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+12%)	2mo	$234,000	$152	66
725 Kingston Rd	0.57mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,405 (+3%)	3mo	$270,000	$192	61
548 Hopkins Landing Dr #548	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (+13%)	2mo	$290,000	$187	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-14,436
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,512
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21220

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,140 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,461/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,692

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $467	-5% $410	+0% $354	+5% $297	+10% $240
Rent	-10% $185	-5% $269	+0% $354	+5% $438	+10% $523
Rate	-1.0pp $454	-0.5pp $404	base $354	+0.5pp $302	+1.0pp $249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2207 Firethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1600	$2,400	$1.50	18d	1	0.06mi
2202 Firethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.5	1324	$2,300	$1.74	46d	1	0.06mi
2203 Redthorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,200	$1.92	13d	1	0.10mi
120 Kingston Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	26d	1	0.20mi
2167 Graythorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1324	$1,900	$1.44	26d	1	0.21mi
2242 Graythorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,195	$2.14	46d	1	0.21mi
2125 Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1299	$2,100	$1.62	46d	1	0.26mi
433 Grovethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,000	$1.95	24d	1	0.27mi
60 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1234	$2,250	$1.82	46d	1	0.31mi
47 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,900	$1.86	26d	1	0.32mi
2128 Cockspur Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1272	$2,100	$1.65	26d	1	0.40mi
1 Alder Dr Middle River, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	1000	$2,249	$2.25	0d	9	0.59mi
736 West Kingsway Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,742	$1.58	21d	7	0.60mi
439 Hopkins Landing Dr Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1485	$1,795	$1.21	13d	1	0.67mi
1710 Huber Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1848	$2,900	$1.57	46d	1	0.68mi
19 Mooring Ct Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1439	$1,900	$1.32	0d	1	0.87mi
303 Endsleigh Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,950	$1.70	24d	1	0.89mi
28 Ebbing Ct Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,095	$1.43	0d	1	0.90mi
146 Marine Oaks Dr Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1516	$2,700	$1.78	26d	1	0.91mi
153 Bennett Rd Unit Labs Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	7d	1	0.92mi
233 Orville Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,850	$1.62	46d	1	0.92mi
1314 First Rd Middle River, MD	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,700	$1.69	0d	1	0.96mi
1542 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1224	$1,800	$1.47	0d	1	0.97mi
1516 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1144	$2,100	$1.84	24d	1	0.98mi
1513 Aldeney Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1324	$2,295	$1.73	26d	1	1.01mi
42 Holcumb Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1452	$2,200	$1.52	46d	1	1.11mi
54 Stemmers Run Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1260	$1,950	$1.55	46d	1	1.11mi
22 Nakota Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1194	$2,000	$1.68	46d	1	1.16mi
832 N Marlyn Ave Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,300	$1.62	46d	1	1.18mi
10 Blackfoot Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	2.5	1740	$2,299	$1.32	26d	1	1.22mi
10 Blackfoot Ct Middle River, MD	4.0	2.5	1596	$2,349	$1.47	46d	1	1.22mi
2 Chelmsford Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1122	$2,100	$1.87	4d	1	1.23mi
326 Stemmers Run Rd Essex, MD	4.0	2.0	1144	$2,300	$2.01	46d	1	1.27mi
70 Chelmsford Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1620	$1,850	$1.14	26d	1	1.28mi
72 Chelmsford Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,899	$1.12	26d	1	1.28mi
421 Torner Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,050	$2.00	24d	1	1.32mi
1409 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	7d	1	1.41mi
1402 Nicolay Way Unit 1 Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1432	$1,925	$1.34	7d	1	1.42mi
1402 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,925	$1.34	5d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 1047-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $199,900 Active 1047-char remark
3. 2026-04-29
   historical $199,900 1047-char remark
4. 2021-10-19
   soldstatus $185,000
5. 2021-06-16
   soldstatus $185,000 Closed 818-char remark

   Show marketing remark (818 chars)

   This home is waiting for YOU! A lovely 3 bedroom 1.5 bathroom townhome nestled in the sought out Hawthorn community. So many updates! You are greeted by a front covered porch, which is a great place to spend time relaxing. You will enter into an oversized living room with tons of natural light. The formal dining is right next to the kitchen and this layout gives you an open concept feel. Custom made cherry wood cabinets are the highlight of the kitchen. Stainless steel appliances. The upper level bathroom has so many updates. Hardwood floors are throughout the 1st and upper levels. The fully finished basement has brand new LVP flooring and recessed lighting. Enjoy time in the backyard which is fenced, paved walkway and a parking pad. Newer furnace, sump pump, and some windows. Don't miss out on this beauty!

6. 2021-05-18
   status Pending 818-char remark

   Show marketing remark (818 chars)

   This home is waiting for YOU! A lovely 3 bedroom 1.5 bathroom townhome nestled in the sought out Hawthorn community. So many updates! You are greeted by a front covered porch, which is a great place to spend time relaxing. You will enter into an oversized living room with tons of natural light. The formal dining is right next to the kitchen and this layout gives you an open concept feel. Custom made cherry wood cabinets are the highlight of the kitchen. Stainless steel appliances. The upper level bathroom has so many updates. Hardwood floors are throughout the 1st and upper levels. The fully finished basement has brand new LVP flooring and recessed lighting. Enjoy time in the backyard which is fenced, paved walkway and a parking pad. Newer furnace, sump pump, and some windows. Don't miss out on this beauty!

7. 2021-05-13
   listed $165,000 Active 818-char remark

   Show marketing remark (818 chars)

   This home is waiting for YOU! A lovely 3 bedroom 1.5 bathroom townhome nestled in the sought out Hawthorn community. So many updates! You are greeted by a front covered porch, which is a great place to spend time relaxing. You will enter into an oversized living room with tons of natural light. The formal dining is right next to the kitchen and this layout gives you an open concept feel. Custom made cherry wood cabinets are the highlight of the kitchen. Stainless steel appliances. The upper level bathroom has so many updates. Hardwood floors are throughout the 1st and upper levels. The fully finished basement has brand new LVP flooring and recessed lighting. Enjoy time in the backyard which is fenced, paved walkway and a parking pad. Newer furnace, sump pump, and some windows. Don't miss out on this beauty!

8. 1988-05-12
   soldstatus $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,461 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,461 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,461
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,054
• − Management: −$2,054
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $1,094
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$263
• After-tax cash flow: $3,981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Middle River

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2777

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle River, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 42,824
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 42,824
• Household income: $81,817
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Ukrainian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.31%
• Current HPI: 254.5597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+233.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2026-05-26 Sold (MLS) $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-29 Coming Soon $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-16 Sold (MLS) $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-13 Listed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1988-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,461 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.