104 Henry St · Herkimer, NY 13350

$129,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 307 Days on market

Built 1910 4,800 sqft lot Est $176k · 27% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Wonderful home that has been loved by the same family for many years. this 3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home has all original woodwork and built-in kitchen cabinets. Includes first floor laundry with full walk-up attic and large basement that can be finished for additional living space. Includes a great outdoor screened in Patio with nice back yard and one car garage. Walkable to everything Herkimer has to offer.

Key facts

• First floor laundry
• Large basement
• Original woodwork

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOODWORK
• BUILT-IN KITCHEN CABINETS
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• WALK-UP ATTIC
• LARGE BASEMENT
• OUTDOOR SCREENED IN PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.5% in Herkimer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D+, crime D.
• Herkimer Central School District (town): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #455 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.27%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
810 Bellinger Ave	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,499 (-1%)	1mo	$174,000	$116	82
305 3rd Ave	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,380 (-9%)	6mo	$106,000	$77	68
111 E German St	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,456 (-4%)	3mo	$190,000	$130	68
415 N Prospect St	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,608 (+6%)	2mo	$103,000	$64	65
401 Harter St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,520 (0%)	5mo	$193,000	$127	64
613 W German St	0.36mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (-8%)	1mo	$172,670	$123	63
334 Gray St	0.50mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,536 (+1%)	10mo	$201,400	$131	62
312 N Caroline St	0.22mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,696 (+12%)	7mo	$170,000	$100	59
302 W German St	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,318 (-13%)	2mo	$195,000	$148	57
100 Hillside Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,626 (+7%)	2mo	$26,000	$16	53
616 N Main St	0.53mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,624 (+7%)	9mo	$172,000	$106	51
344 Eastern Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+11%)	7mo	$150,000	$89	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $78,875
• Equity at exit: $116,213

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.25×
• Total profit: $225,888
• Equity at exit: $250,619

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13350

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,540 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,571/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,371

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 Lake St Herkimer, NY	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	43d	1	0.85mi
5 Walnut St Mohawk, NY	2.0	1.0	1832	$1,350	$0.74	43d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 307 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 306 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 305 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 304 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 302 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 301 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 298 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   status $129,000 Active 297 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active Under Contract 297 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active Under Contract 296 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active Under Contract 295 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active Under Contract 292 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active Under Contract 291 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active Under Contract 290 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active Under Contract 289 DOM
16. 2026-01-21
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2025-12-05
    price $129,000
18. 2025-09-30
    price $149,000
19. 2025-08-15
    listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,571 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,571 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$3,571
• − Insurance: −$1,312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,478
• − Management: −$1,478
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$340
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$82
• After-tax cash flow: $1,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herkimer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614220
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,447
• Composite: 38.87/100
• National rank: #4100
• State rank: #455 of 590 in NY

Livability — Herkimer

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6787

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herkimer, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,641

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.43%
• Current HPI: 324.4601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-16.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $129,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $149,000 CNYIS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $155,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,571 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.