127 Oakley Dr · North Syracuse, NY 13212

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1955 9,600 sqft lot Est $214k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at this 3-bedroom ranch in the Village of North Syracuse! Situated on a manageable lot with an attached garage, this home is ready for its next chapter. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or someone looking to create a space uniquely your own, this property offers incredible potential. Bring your toolbox, creativity, and vision—this home is in need of updates and personal touches but provides a solid foundation to build from. With a functional layout, full basement, and desirable single-level living, the possibilities here are endless. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, and major routes, this is your chance to transform a house into a home that

Key facts

• Manageable lot
• Attached garage
• Full basement

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• FULL BASEMENT
• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• MANAGEABLE LOT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-409/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (4.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $144k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#379 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• North Syracuse Central School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #402 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $150k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $143,873 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $214,272
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
127 Oakley Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	1mo	$160,000	$185	99
112 Oakley Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	11mo	$222,500	$258	85
100 Clarence Dr	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	858 (-1%)	3mo	$250,000	$291	79
114 Oakley Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (0%)	14mo	$230,000	$266	78
404 Wells Ave E	0.04mi	2/1.5 (-1)	912 (+6%)	13mo	$226,200	$248	71
612 Church St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-3%)	6mo	$199,000	$237	71
309 Wells Ave E	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (+7%)	11mo	$181,510	$196	65
117 Marshia Ave	0.66mi	3/1.5	854 (-1%)	9mo	$242,500	$284	58
12 Lincoln Rd	0.50mi	3/1.0	925 (+7%)	9mo	$200,000	$216	57
206 Watson Rd	0.59mi	3/1.5	912 (+6%)	20mo	$180,000	$197	45
19 Lincoln Rd	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	958 (+11%)	22mo	$202,000	$211	36
226 Hamilton Rd	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	968 (+12%)	7mo	$249,000	$257	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-26,298
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-25,027
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13212

• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$418 /mo · $5,016/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,603

Max offer price $143,873

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $8	+0% $-34	+5% $-77	+10% $-119
Rent	-10% $-157	-5% $-96	+0% $-34	+5% $28	+10% $89
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $4	base $-34	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5548 Bear Rd Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0–1.5	1100	$1,560	$1.42	15d	2	1.07mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   listed $149,900 Active
3. 1994-08-31
   soldstatus $57,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,016 · $418/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,016 · $418/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,720
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$5,016
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$671
• After-tax cash flow: $262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Syracuse Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621210
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $62,904
• Composite: 41.93/100
• National rank: #3356
• State rank: #402 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Syracuse

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #379
• US rank: #6513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Syracuse, NY
• City population: 20,185
• Population (ZIP): 20,185

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.93%
• Current HPI: 317.7322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+160.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $149,900 CNYIS
• 1994-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,016 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.