6857 S Melody Ave · Tucson, AZ 85756

$239,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,796 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1955 10,018 sqft lot Est $314k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own a HUD Home! Disclosures: Repairs exceed $5,000. Repairs may include but not limited to electrical, roof, plumbing; Inspection recommended, Detached guest house in back, Security bars on windows need to be removed, or quick release installed, Repair ceiling. Possible roof leak in living room of guest house, Rotting & damaged eaves on overhang under rear door of main house, Paint bare fascia boards, Replace missing flue pipe to water heater, Replace missing breaker banks in main house and in guest house electrical panels, Replace missing hard wired smoke detector in guest house, Replace 6 missing electrical wall plates in guest house and 6 missing electrical wall plates in main house, Evidence of defective paint on main and guest house.Per FHA Appraisal, has 1 bath.

Key facts

• Newer ac unit
• Red brick home
• Back yard

Tags

• RED BRICK HOME
• HUGE FRONT YARD
• BACK YARD
• SEPARATE GUEST HOUSE
• NEWER AC UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Pima County - CR3
• HOA & community: Paved street; Park

Exterior

• Security: Window bars; Wrought iron security door; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water / Water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Home faces west
• Construction: Brick and frame-stucco construction; Built-Up, shingle, and membrane roofing
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Block and wood fencing; East/West exposure; Paved road; City-maintained road; Paved street access; Park nearby

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Gas pac heating; Central air conditioning; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Gas hookup available; Window bars; Smoke detectors; Wrought iron security door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($984/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Sunnyside Unified District (4407) (urban): math 9% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #233 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Craycroft Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 590 students, 82% FRL); Billy Lane Lauffer Middle School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #188 of 218 statewide, top 88%, 428 students, 75% FRL); Desert View High School (math 9% / reading 12%, grade F, #295 of 381 statewide, top 78%, 2,169 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 56% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $58k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $239k implies a 647% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,577 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.47%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $314,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6857 S Melody Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-8%)	0mo	$239,000	$145	82
5790 E Camino Nuestras Casas	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,759 (-2%)	2mo	$318,000	$181	70
5952 E Sanderling Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,857 (+3%)	2mo	$360,000	$194	66
7258 S Millers Tale Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,789 (-0%)	3mo	$273,750	$153	64
7159 S Parsons Tale Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,873 (+4%)	7mo	$320,000	$171	54
7049 S Dunnock Dr S	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,857 (+3%)	4mo	$325,000	$175	53
5758 E Camino Nuestras Casas	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (-14%)	2mo	$290,000	$189	49
6202 E Stonechat Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,857 (+3%)	6mo	$285,000	$153	49
6179 E Bramble St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,627 (-9%)	2mo	$267,000	$164	47
5097 E Fishhook Ct	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,647 (-8%)	6mo	$300,000	$182	42
7015 S Dunnock Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,634 (-9%)	5mo	$280,000	$171	40
7154 S Shipmans Tale Ct	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,538 (-14%)	8mo	$287,000	$187	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-36,454
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-36,766
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85756

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,227/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,842

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $150	+0% $82	+5% $14	+10% $-53
Rent	-10% $-72	-5% $5	+0% $82	+5% $159	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $143	base $82	+0.5pp $20	+1.0pp $-43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6809 S Camino de Azar Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1676	$1,695	$1.01	25d	1	0.23mi
6694 S Avenida Santa Carolina Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,750	$1.15	45d	1	0.30mi
6965 S Ladys Thumb Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1340	$1,750	$1.31	16d	1	0.48mi
6974 S Ladys Thumb Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	3.0	1298	$2,000	$1.54	45d	1	0.48mi
6889 S Harrier Loop Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,750	$1.07	25d	1	0.51mi
7060 S Red Maids Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1417	$1,795	$1.27	45d	1	0.55mi
5154 E Arguedas Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1849	$1,775	$0.96	45d	1	0.55mi
5095 E Fishhook Ct Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,695	$1.32	25d	1	0.61mi
6385 S Ambarella Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,799	$1.23	4d	1	0.75mi
7010 S Sweetbush Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	2304	$2,086	$0.91	12d	1	0.88mi
6391 E Calle Hora Cero Tucson, AZ	4.0	3.0	2401	$2,150	$0.90	12d	1	1.07mi
6330 S Crescent Peak Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1391	$1,795	$1.29	4d	1	1.08mi
6420 E Via Jardin Verde Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1862	$2,100	$1.13	3d	1	1.13mi
7355 S Wilmot Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1687	$2,200	$1.30	17d	1	1.17mi
6567 E Via Arroyo Azul Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1727	$1,800	$1.04	21d	1	1.21mi
6339 E Garden Stone Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,695	$1.32	45d	1	1.37mi
6638 E Via Jardin Verde Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,900	$1.19	45d	1	1.42mi
6680 E Via Jardin Verde Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.5	2384	$2,100	$0.88	18d	1	1.47mi
7769 S Delia Stone Ct Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1904	$1,905	$1.00	3d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Contingent
3. 2026-04-11
   price $239,000
4. 2026-03-13
   price $255,000
5. 2026-02-22
   price $275,000
6. 2026-02-10
   listed $297,000 Active
7. 2012-06-15
   soldstatus $32,000 804-char remark

   Show marketing remark (804 chars)

   Great opportunity to own a HUD Home! Disclosures: Repairs exceed $5,000. Repairs may include but not limited to electrical, roof, plumbing; Inspection recommended, Detached guest house in back, Security bars on windows need to be removed, or quick release installed, Repair ceiling. Possible roof leak in living room of guest house, Rotting & damaged eaves on overhang under rear door of main house, Paint bare fascia boards, Replace missing flue pipe to water heater, Replace missing breaker banks in main house and in guest house electrical panels, Replace missing hard wired smoke detector in guest house, Replace 6 missing electrical wall plates in guest house and 6 missing electrical wall plates in main house, Evidence of defective paint on main and guest house.Per FHA Appraisal, has 1 bath.

8. 2012-05-02
   historical 804-char remark

   Show marketing remark (804 chars)

   Great opportunity to own a HUD Home! Disclosures: Repairs exceed $5,000. Repairs may include but not limited to electrical, roof, plumbing; Inspection recommended, Detached guest house in back, Security bars on windows need to be removed, or quick release installed, Repair ceiling. Possible roof leak in living room of guest house, Rotting & damaged eaves on overhang under rear door of main house, Paint bare fascia boards, Replace missing flue pipe to water heater, Replace missing breaker banks in main house and in guest house electrical panels, Replace missing hard wired smoke detector in guest house, Replace 6 missing electrical wall plates in guest house and 6 missing electrical wall plates in main house, Evidence of defective paint on main and guest house.Per FHA Appraisal, has 1 bath.

9. 2012-04-26
   listed $32,000 804-char remark

   Show marketing remark (804 chars)

   Great opportunity to own a HUD Home! Disclosures: Repairs exceed $5,000. Repairs may include but not limited to electrical, roof, plumbing; Inspection recommended, Detached guest house in back, Security bars on windows need to be removed, or quick release installed, Repair ceiling. Possible roof leak in living room of guest house, Rotting & damaged eaves on overhang under rear door of main house, Paint bare fascia boards, Replace missing flue pipe to water heater, Replace missing breaker banks in main house and in guest house electrical panels, Replace missing hard wired smoke detector in guest house, Replace 6 missing electrical wall plates in guest house and 6 missing electrical wall plates in main house, Evidence of defective paint on main and guest house.Per FHA Appraisal, has 1 bath.

10. 2002-06-05
    soldstatus $69,650

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,227 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$350/yr (+$29/mo · 28.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 58% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$1,227
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$3,149
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$756
• After-tax cash flow: $1,739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sunnyside Unified District (4407)
• NCES district ID: 0408170
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $34,365
• Composite: 9.76/100
• National rank: #9827
• State rank: #233 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,700
• Household income: $72,490
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 23% Black 7% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 39% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.28%
• Current HPI: 304.0243
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+243.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $239,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $255,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $275,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-10 Listed $297,000 MLSSAZ
• 2012-06-15 Sold (MLS) $32,000 MLSSAZ
• 2012-05-02 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2012-04-26 Listed $32,000 MLSSAZ
• 2002-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $69,650 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,227 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.