412 S Center St · Shelbina, MO 63468

$118,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,903 sqft · Other public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1910 0.38 ac lot $41/sqft · 45% below area Est $151k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this classic bungalow offering space, character and value! With 4 bedrooms and 1 ½ baths this 2054sqft home provides plenty of room to spread out. Recent updates include many new windows, bringing in natural light and added efficiency. Outside you will appreciate the 2-car detached garage and plenty of parking space in the driveway. Located in a quiet small community, this home offers the peaceful lifestyle you've been looking for.

Key facts

• Classic bungalow
• Recent updates
• Plenty of parking

Tags

• CLASSIC BUNGALOW
• RECENT UPDATES
• NEW WINDOWS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• PLENTY OF PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#188 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County R-IV (rural): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #224 of 324 in MO (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($816 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.4% local appreciation)).
• Shelby County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $110,920 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.06%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,146
• List price: $118,000
• Delta: -21.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $54,650
• Equity at exit: $77,352

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $146,152
• Equity at exit: $143,097

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63468

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,266 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $662/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $915

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $310	+0% $277	+5% $244	+10% $210
Rent	-10% $177	-5% $227	+0% $277	+5% $327	+10% $377
Rate	-1.0pp $336	-0.5pp $307	base $277	+0.5pp $246	+1.0pp $215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $118,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $118,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $118,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $118,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $118,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $118,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $118,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $118,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $118,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-03-27
    listed $118,000 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Welcome home to this classic bungalow offering space, character and value! With 4 bedrooms and 1 1/2 baths this 2054sqft home provides plenty of room to spread out. Recent updates include many new windows, bringing in natural light and added efficiency. Outside you will appreciate the 2-car detached garage and plenty of parking space in the driveway. Located in a quiet small community, this home offers the peaceful lifestyle you've been looking for.

17. 2026-03-27
    listed $118,000 Active 453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Welcome home to this classic bungalow offering space, character and value! With 4 bedrooms and 1 1/2 baths this 2054sqft home provides plenty of room to spread out. Recent updates include many new windows, bringing in natural light and added efficiency. Outside you will appreciate the 2-car detached garage and plenty of parking space in the driveway. Located in a quiet small community, this home offers the peaceful lifestyle you've been looking for.

18. 2023-11-30
    soldstatus
19. 2023-11-27
    status Pending
20. 2023-11-27
    soldstatus Closed
21. 2023-11-27
    soldstatus Closed
22. 2023-10-16
    status Pending
23. 2023-10-16
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2023-08-24
    listed $90,000 Active
25. 2023-08-24
    listed $90,000 Active
26. 2021-05-27
    soldstatus
27. 2021-05-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $662 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,145 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$483/yr (+$40/mo · 72.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,191
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$662
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,215
• − Management: −$1,215
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable income: $1,466
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$352
• After-tax cash flow: $2,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2928110
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,627
• Composite: 29.44/100
• National rank: #6517
• State rank: #224 of 324 in MO

Livability — Shelbina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #188
• US rank: #9918

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelbina, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,523

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,663 people
• By 2030: 5,352 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 4,762 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 4,200 · -25.8%
• By 2075: 3,058 · -46.0%
• By 2100: 2,166 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.9% · R 82.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.9pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+62.9 2016: R+59.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.42%
• Current HPI: 216.9275
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+31.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $118,000 RCBR
• 2026-03-27 Listed $118,000 CBORMLS
• 2023-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-27 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-27 Sold (MLS) — NECAR
• 2023-11-27 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-16 Pending — NECAR
• 2023-10-16 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-24 Listed $90,000 NECAR
• 2023-08-24 Listed $90,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-27 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $662 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.