38 NE Village Ln · Jensen Beach, FL 34957

$227,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · SingleFamily · 410 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 4,200 sqft lot $177/sqft · 46% below area Est $419k · 46% under $765/mo HOA · 32% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in a 55+ community. Pets welcome up to 20lbs and 2 pets max per home. Monthly $724 land lease includes curbside trash service, cable, and community amenities. Amenities include a pool, hot tub, shuffle board courts, fitness room, library, billiards room, cards room, and a full-time social director who schedules a wide variety of events. The clubhouse hosts many socials, including dinners with entertainment and dances.

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Community amenities
• Pool

Tags

• MONTHLY LAND LEASE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• HOT TUB
• SHUFFLE BOARD COURTS
• FITNESS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $227k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-462 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (29.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $227k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#432 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jensen Beach Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 558 students, 45% FRL); Stuart Middle School (math 55% / reading 55%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 867 students, 49% FRL); Jensen Beach High School (math 53% / reading 71%, grade B-, #98 of 667 statewide, top 15%, 1,584 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 410 days — a 12% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,213 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 410 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.71%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $418,767
• List price: $227,000
• Delta: -45.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1572 NE 22nd St	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,314 (+2%)	2mo	$425,000	$323	84
2007 NE 21st Ter E	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,293 (+0%)	8mo	$430,000	$333	73
2177 NE 18th Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (-5%)	9mo	$390,000	$321	70
1641 NE 24th Ter	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,262 (-2%)	12mo	$495,000	$392	67
2489 NE 18th Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,242 (-3%)	8mo	$450,000	$362	66
2337 NE 16th Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,370 (+6%)	12mo	$465,000	$339	62
2070 NE Arch St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,118 (-13%)	7mo	$425,000	$380	47
2859 NE Hickory Ridge Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+8%)	7mo	$405,000	$291	43
1772 NE 23rd Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,106 (-14%)	4mo	$389,280	$352	39
926 NE Vanda Terrado	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,435 (+12%)	11mo	$399,000	$278	37
2001 NE Hoya Calle	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,470 (+14%)	12mo	$350,000	$238	34
2636 NE Hickory Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,122 (-13%)	11mo	$305,000	$272	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-70,350
• Equity at exit: $33,846

10-year hold

• IRR: -70.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-115,489
• Equity at exit: $19,627

Cash invested: $63,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34957

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,370 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,190
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$284 /mo · $3,405/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$765
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,954

Max offer price $160,213

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-305	-5% $-383	+0% $-462	+5% $-540	+10% $-618
Rent	-10% $-649	-5% $-555	+0% $-462	+5% $-368	+10% $-274
Rate	-1.0pp $-347	-0.5pp $-404	base $-462	+0.5pp $-520	+1.0pp $-580

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,750
• Closing costs: $6,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1585 NE Beacon Dr #1103 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$1,495	$1.56	25d	1	0.39mi
1999 NE Collins Cir Unit 3-80 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,775	$1.66	25d	1	0.44mi
1617 NE Nautical Pl Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$1,850	$1.93	15d	1	0.45mi
2013 NE Collins Cir #50 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	903	$1,800	$1.99	15d	1	0.48mi
1971 NE Collins Cir #20 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1037	$1,750	$1.69	25d	1	0.48mi
1411 NE 14th Ct #13 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,000	$2.73	25d	1	0.53mi
2563 NE Palm Ave Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,400	$2.53	25d	1	0.59mi
1600 NE Dixie Hwy Unit 10-203 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1072	$2,300	$2.15	25d	1	0.64mi
1550 NE 13th Ter Unit B16 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	25d	1	0.65mi
2506 NE Heron's Walk Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	25d	1	0.74mi
2831 NE Savannah Rd Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$3,000	$2.40	25d	1	0.74mi
2646 NE Pelican Way Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	25d	1	0.77mi
2632 NE Pelican Way Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$4,800	$4.80	25d	1	0.77mi
1903 NE Media Ave Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1324	$2,400	$1.81	25d	1	0.83mi
2952 NE Savannah Rd Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$3,000	$2.84	25d	1	0.85mi
297 NE Coastal DR #297 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,000	$3.00	25d	1	0.88mi
1366 NE Hilltop St Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1596	$2,700	$1.69	25d	1	0.90mi
3111 NE Savannah Rd Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1085	$1,995	$1.84	15d	1	0.93mi
3121 NE Savannah Rd Unit 3121 Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	1.0	1085	$2,095	$1.93	25d	1	0.95mi
3123 NE Savannah Rd Unit 3123 Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,195	$2.00	25d	1	0.95mi
590 NE Lima Vias Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1295	$3,300	$2.55	25d	1	1.00mi
1097 NE Kubin Ave Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	952	$2,450	$2.57	25d	1	1.08mi
1001 NE Baker Rd Stuart, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	952	$2,280	$2.40	15d	27	1.09mi
3393 NE Sandra Dr Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1547	$2,700	$1.75	25d	1	1.13mi
3450 NE Linda Dr Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1240	$2,500	$2.02	25d	1	1.18mi
3489 NE Linda Dr Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1572	$3,150	$2.00	25d	1	1.21mi
257 Preserve Trl N Stuart, FL	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,700	$1.63	25d	1	1.26mi
1315 NE Flora Pl Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	25d	1	1.34mi
3663 NE Barbara Dr Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	991	$2,450	$2.47	25d	1	1.38mi
25 NE 17th St Stuart, FL	3.0	2.0	990	$2,000	$2.02	25d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $765 · $9,180/yr
• Likely covers: trashcablepool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $227,000 Active 410 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $227,000 Active 407 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $227,000 Active 406 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $227,000 Active 405 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $227,000 Active 404 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $227,000 Active 402 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $227,000 Active 401 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $227,000 Active 399 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $227,000 Active 398 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $227,000 Active 397 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $227,000 Active 396 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $227,000 Active 392 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $227,000 Active 391 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $227,000 Active 390 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $227,000 Active 389 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $227,000 Active 388 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    price $227,000 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Located in a 55+ community. Pets welcome up to 20lbs and 2 pets max per home. Monthly $724 land lease includes curbside trash service, cable, and community amenities. Amenities include a pool, hot tub, shuffle board courts, fitness room, library, billiards room, cards room, and a full-time social director who schedules a wide variety of events. The clubhouse hosts many socials, including dinners with entertainment and dances.

18. 2025-05-08
    listed $247,000 Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Located in a 55+ community. Pets welcome up to 20lbs and 2 pets max per home. Monthly $724 land lease includes curbside trash service, cable, and community amenities. Amenities include a pool, hot tub, shuffle board courts, fitness room, library, billiards room, cards room, and a full-time social director who schedules a wide variety of events. The clubhouse hosts many socials, including dinners with entertainment and dances.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,716
• − Property taxes: −$3,405
• − Insurance: −$1,135
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,275
• − Management: −$2,275
• − HOA: −$9,180
• − Depreciation: −$6,604
• Taxable loss: −$9,151
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,196
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern updates and a move-in-ready appearance. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for further value enhancement through minor cosmetic upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin
• NCES district ID: 1201290
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,482
• Composite: 45.1/100
• National rank: #2690
• State rank: #24 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jensen Beach

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #432
• US rank: #7719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jensen Beach, FL
• County: Martin County · 165,223 people
• City population: 23,462
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,462
• Household income: $70,403
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 172,383 people
• By 2030: 180,192 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 194,114 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 204,992 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 229,641 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 232,146 · +34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -319.66%
• Current HPI: 340.0172
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.00%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-8.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $227,000 Zillow
• 2025-05-08 Listed $247,000 Zillow