21 Parkside Dr · Eldred, NY 12737

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1991 1.25 ac lot Est $349k · 14% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

ABSOLUTELY LOVELY COUNTRY HOME PRIVATELY SET WITH MEANDERING STREAM. FEATURES STONE FIREPLACE, CATHEDRAL CEILINGS, COVERED PORCH, REAR DECKS, WAINSCOTING, HOT TUB, DETACHED GARAGE AND LAKERIGHTS TO PRISTINE MOHICAN LAKE! ENJOY MOTORBOATING, SWIMMING AND FISHING! CLOSE TO SCHOOLS, SHOPPING, DELAWARE RIVER & ONLY 15 MINUTES TO COMMUTER TRAINS TO NYC!

Key facts

• Motorboat lake
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Lake rights

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• STONE FIREPLACE
• LAKE RIGHTS
• MOTORBOAT LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($106/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.2% in Eldred — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eldred Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #495 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: George Ross Mackenzie Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 242 students, 38% FRL); Eldred Junior-Senior High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 230 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $276,704 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.13%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $349,320
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
413 Mohican Lake Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,623 (+14%)	19mo	$399,900	$246	50
102 Delaware Trl	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+14%)	1mo	$200,000	$123	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $163,518
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.75×
• Total profit: $481,308
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12737

• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,767 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$464 /mo · $5,562/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,756

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
44 Delaware Trl Glen Spey, NY	2.0	1.0	936	$3,500	$3.74	14d	1	0.41mi
4 Beach Rd Glen Spey, NY	3.0	1.0	999	$2,000	$2.00	14d	1	0.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $299,000 Active
3. 2006-12-19
   soldstatus $285,000
4. 2006-12-07
   soldstatus $285,000 356-char remark

   Show marketing remark (356 chars)

   ABSOLUTELY LOVELY COUNTRY HOME PRIVATELY SET WITH MEANDERING STREAM. FEATURES STONE FIREPLACE, CATHEDRAL CEILINGS, COVERED PORCH, REAR DECKS, WAINSCOTING, HOT TUB, DETACHED GARAGE AND LAKERIGHTS TO PRISTINE MOHICAN LAKE! ENJOY MOTORBOATING, SWIMMING AND FISHING! CLOSE TO SCHOOLS, SHOPPING, DELAWARE RIVER & ONLY 15 MINUTES TO COMMUTER TRAINS TO NYC!

5. 2006-09-13
   historical 356-char remark

   Show marketing remark (356 chars)

   ABSOLUTELY LOVELY COUNTRY HOME PRIVATELY SET WITH MEANDERING STREAM. FEATURES STONE FIREPLACE, CATHEDRAL CEILINGS, COVERED PORCH, REAR DECKS, WAINSCOTING, HOT TUB, DETACHED GARAGE AND LAKERIGHTS TO PRISTINE MOHICAN LAKE! ENJOY MOTORBOATING, SWIMMING AND FISHING! CLOSE TO SCHOOLS, SHOPPING, DELAWARE RIVER & ONLY 15 MINUTES TO COMMUTER TRAINS TO NYC!

6. 2006-06-14
   listed $295,000 356-char remark

   Show marketing remark (356 chars)

   ABSOLUTELY LOVELY COUNTRY HOME PRIVATELY SET WITH MEANDERING STREAM. FEATURES STONE FIREPLACE, CATHEDRAL CEILINGS, COVERED PORCH, REAR DECKS, WAINSCOTING, HOT TUB, DETACHED GARAGE AND LAKERIGHTS TO PRISTINE MOHICAN LAKE! ENJOY MOTORBOATING, SWIMMING AND FISHING! CLOSE TO SCHOOLS, SHOPPING, DELAWARE RIVER & ONLY 15 MINUTES TO COMMUTER TRAINS TO NYC!

7. 1995-01-18
   soldstatus $110,000
8. 1988-07-22
   soldstatus $16,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,562 · $464/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,562 · $464/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$5,562
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,656
• − Management: −$2,656
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$4,864
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,167
• After-tax cash flow: $1,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eldred Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610410
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,775
• Composite: 35.94/100
• National rank: #4800
• State rank: #495 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eldred

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,817

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 132.02%
• Current HPI: 443.8248
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1712.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-07 Sold (MLS) $285,000 HGMLS
• 2006-09-13 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2006-06-14 Listed $295,000 HGMLS
• 1995-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 1988-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,562 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.