12620 S Alpine Dr #4 · Alsip, IL 60803

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Condo public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1968 $129/sqft · at area comps Est $162k · 21% under $422/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully Remodeled 2 bedrooms, one bath, on the FIRST floor, freshly Painted, Appliances with a dishwasher, Microwave, Spacious living Room, to outdoor balcony, laundry room 5 feet's away. Fees covers, heat, water, Trash. and all exterior maintenance. FHA. is OK.

Key facts

• Outdoor balcony
• Fully remodeled
• Laundry room

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• OUTDOOR BALCONY
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (17.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.5% in Alsip — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#166 in IL, #3,042 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities D+.
• Chsd 218 (suburban): math 14% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #454 of 620 in IL (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hazelgreen Elem School (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,136 of 2,056 statewide, top 55%, 274 students, 0% FRL); Prairie Jr High School (math 14% / reading 35%, grade F, #332 of 665 statewide, top 55%, 336 students, 0% FRL); Dd Eisenhower High Sch (Campus) (math 10% / reading 13%, grade F, #520 of 693 statewide, top 75%, 1,841 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $129k implies a 345% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.

Recommended offer $106,680 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.20%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,327
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -20.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-28,631
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-33,994
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60803

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,578 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,652/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$422
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,738

Max offer price $106,680

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-53	-5% $-90	+0% $-126	+5% $-163	+10% $-199
Rent	-10% $-251	-5% $-189	+0% $-126	+5% $-64	+10% $-2
Rate	-1.0pp $-61	-0.5pp $-94	base $-126	+0.5pp $-160	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5723 129th St Crestwood, IL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	0d	1	0.45mi
10410 S Moody Ave Palos Heights, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	5d	1	0.85mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $422 · $5,064/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashexterior maint.
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $129,000 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    Fully Remodeled 2 bedrooms, one bath, on the FIRST floor, freshly Painted, Appliances with a dishwasher, Microwave, Spacious living Room, to outdoor balcony, laundry room 5 feet's away. Fees covers, heat, water, Trash. and all exterior maintenance. FHA. is OK.

16. 2026-05-06
    price $139,000 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    Fully Remodeled 2 bedrooms, one bath, on the FIRST floor, freshly Painted, Appliances with a dishwasher, Microwave, Spacious living Room, to outdoor balcony, laundry room 5 feet's away. Fees covers, heat, water, Trash. and all exterior maintenance. FHA. is OK.

17. 2026-04-15
    listed $145,000 Active 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    Fully Remodeled 2 bedrooms, one bath, on the FIRST floor, freshly Painted, Appliances with a dishwasher, Microwave, Spacious living Room, to outdoor balcony, laundry room 5 feet's away. Fees covers, heat, water, Trash. and all exterior maintenance. FHA. is OK.

18. 2025-12-27
    historical
19. 2025-12-17
    price
20. 2025-09-12
    price
21. 2025-08-31
    listed Active
22. 2022-12-05
    historical
23. 2022-08-24
    price
24. 2022-08-05
    price
25. 2022-07-20
    listed Active
26. 2019-12-12
    historical
27. 2019-09-12
    listed New
28. 2015-03-24
    historical
29. 2014-10-29
    price
30. 2014-08-17
    price Price Change
31. 2014-05-07
    status Active
32. 2014-04-23
    historical
33. 2014-04-16
    listed New
34. 2013-10-16
    soldstatus $29,000 Closed Sale
35. 2013-04-22
    status Pending
36. 2013-03-12
    historical Contingent
37. 2013-02-18
    listed $29,000 New
38. 2013-02-12
    historical
39. 2012-11-08
    listed New
40. 2012-04-10
    historical
41. 2011-09-28
    price Price Change
42. 2011-07-02
    price Price Change
43. 2011-07-02
    listed New
44. 2011-06-29
    historical
45. 2010-07-20
    price Price Change
46. 2010-01-31
    price Price Change
47. 2010-01-22
    listed New
48. 2009-09-01
    historical
49. 2009-07-12
    price
50. 2009-07-07
    price Price Change

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,652 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,790 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: +$138/yr (+$11/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$2,652
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,515
• − Management: −$1,515
• − HOA: −$5,064
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$3,430
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$823
• After-tax cash flow: $-693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chsd 218
• NCES district ID: 1706540
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,166
• Composite: 16.09/100
• National rank: #9235
• State rank: #454 of 620 in IL

Livability — Alsip

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #3042

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alsip, IL
• County: Cook County · 4,486,803 people
• City population: 22,106
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 22,106
• Household income: $67,014
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 683.0

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 19% Two or more races 11% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.48%
• Current HPI: 231.175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+344.8% since first listed

39 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $129,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $139,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $145,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-27 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-31 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-24 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-05 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-20 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-12 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-12 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-24 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-29 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-17 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-07 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-23 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-16 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-16 Sold (MLS) $29,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-22 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-12 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-18 Listed $29,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-12 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-08 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-10 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-28 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-02 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-02 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-29 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-07-20 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-31 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-22 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-01 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-12 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-07 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-23 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-10 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-23 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,652 · +159.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.