306 Amethyst Ln · Horseshoe Bend, AR 72512

$139,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 211 Days on market

Built 1979 0.31 ac lot Est $190k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Seasonal Lakeview Charm with Flexible Living Space! Welcome home to this charming 2 bed/2 bath residence, perfectly situated in a great location near beautiful Crown Lake. This home offers a blend of cozy comfort and incredible versatility, featuring multiple bonus areas that adapt to your lifestyle-whether you need a dedicated office, a formal dining space, or even a third bedroom. Imagine enjoying your morning coffee on the spacious back deck, taking in the seasonal lakeview. The heart of the home features an inviting open kitchen and living room layout, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. The living room is anchored by a traditional wood-burning fireplace with an insert, ensuring warm,

Key facts

• Spacious back deck
• Seasonal lakeview
• Multiple bonus areas

Tags

• SEASONAL LAKEVIEW
• FLEXIBLE LIVING SPACE
• MULTIPLE BONUS AREAS
• SPACIOUS BACK DECK
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• CONVERTED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Termite service provided by Terminix
• Financial info: Financing options: VA, FHA, conventional, or cash
• HOA & community: Community amenities include tennis courts, playground, party room, picnic area, marina, golf course, fitness/bike trail, and airport access; Mandatory community fee

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pads
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Electric service via cooperative; Fiber internet available
• Home design: Frame and rock exterior with Masonite accents; Crawl space foundation
• Construction: Composition pitched roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Guttering; Detached shop; Paved road access; Lake view; Sloped and level cleared yard; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove / electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator stays; Ice maker connection
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Heat pump
• Interior features: Washer connection and washer stays; Dryer connection (electric) and dryer stays; Electric water heater; Smoke detectors; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Walk-in shower; Formica kitchen countertops
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer and dryer connections (washer and dryer included)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 6.2% in Horseshoe Bend — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Izard CountyConsolidated School District (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #171 of 238 in AR (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 441 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Izard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $964 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Izard County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $140k implies a 224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.69%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,350
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 W Lansing Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-4%)	10mo	$209,000	$154	58
327 W Green Valley Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-1%)	5mo	$178,000	$127	54
307 Church St	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-3%)	14mo	$185,000	$135	47
908 Crusoe Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+14%)	8mo	$190,000	$118	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-10,868
• Equity at exit: $20,800

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $5,495
• Equity at exit: $12,061

Cash invested: $39,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72512

• Home prices YoY: -8.3%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$732
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $626/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,066

Max offer price $139,500

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $264	-5% $225	+0% $185	+5% $146	+10% $106
Rent	-10% $82	-5% $134	+0% $185	+5% $236	+10% $288
Rate	-1.0pp $255	-0.5pp $221	base $185	+0.5pp $149	+1.0pp $112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,875
• Closing costs: $4,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 E Church St Horseshoe Bend, AR	2.0	1.5	1176	$1,300	$1.11	45d	1	0.32mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,500 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,500 Active 209 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,500 Active 208 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,500 Active 207 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,500 Active 206 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,500 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,500 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,500 Active 202 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,500 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,500 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,500 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,500 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,500 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,500 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,500 Active 190 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,500 Active 189 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    status Back on Market
18. 2026-04-02
    status Under Contract
19. 2025-11-07
    listed $139,500 New Listing
20. 2002-05-23
    soldstatus $43,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $626 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $893 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$267/yr (+$22/mo · 42.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,814
• − Property taxes: −$626
• − Insurance: −$698
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$4,058
• Taxable loss: −$92
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$22
• After-tax cash flow: $2,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Izard CountyConsolidated School District
• NCES district ID: 0500021
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $30,245
• Composite: 22.66/100
• National rank: #8047
• State rank: #171 of 238 in AR

Livability — Horseshoe Bend

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #14584

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bend, AR
• City population: 2,458
• Population (ZIP): 2,458

Population outlook (Izard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,018 people
• By 2030: 12,761 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 12,331 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 12,041 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 11,516 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 10,549 · -19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Izard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.9) · D 16.0% · R 81.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -65.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.9 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.58%
• Current HPI: 184.0807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+224.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — CARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $139,500 CARMLS
• 2002-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $626 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.