12372 Pawcatuck Way · Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$529,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,468 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2007 6,896 sqft lot $360/sqft · 8% below area Est $574k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this beautifully updated single-story home in the sought-after Sunridge Park community. Set on a quiet street with no HOA and no rear neighbors, it offers a rare blend of privacy, comfort, and modern updates. Inside, a bright open layout welcomes you with 9' ceilings, crown molding, and custom built-ins, all enhanced by updated lighting, new ceiling fans, and fresh interior and exterior paint. The remodeled kitchen serves as the centerpiece of the home, featuring quartz countertops, white cabinetry, a large island with bar seating, farmhouse sink, under-cabinet lighting, and stainless steel appliances. The home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, plus a flexible office/den that can serve a

Key facts

• Remodeled kitchen
• Custom barn door
• Extended driveway

Tags

• UPDATED SINGLE-STORY HOME
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• CUSTOM BARN DOOR
• LARGE PRIVATE BACKYARD
• APP-CONTROLLED SPRINKLERS
• EXTENDED DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage door opener; Garage facing front
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; 220-volt outlet in kitchen; Public water; Public sewer; Irrigation available
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; One story; Built in 2007
• Construction: Tile roof
• Exterior features: Auto sprinklers front and rear; Regular-shaped lot; Landscaped front and back; Backyard wood fencing (fenced); Gazebo; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Built-in gas oven; Built-in gas range; Quartz countertops; Pantry closet; Kitchen island with sink
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; Master bedroom on ground floor with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with double sinks, tub/shower combo, quartz counters and window; Other baths feature quartz and windows
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Hot water heating; Fireplace(s); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry closet; Kitchen open to family room; Island with sink; Quartz counters in kitchen and bathrooms; Uncovered patio
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with cabinets; Electric hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $529k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (37.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (43.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (43.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Cordova — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 466 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$91k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,399 (43.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.02%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $574,124
• List price: $529,000
• Delta: -7.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12372 Pawcatuck Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,468 (0%)	1mo	$540,000	$368	99
12436 Pawcatuck Way	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,468 (0%)	1mo	$510,000	$347	92
4176 Choteau Cir	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-1%)	2mo	$528,000	$364	82
12300 Pawcatuck Way	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+12%)	4mo	$550,500	$334	67
12424 Chelidon Way	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,442 (-2%)	2mo	$470,990	$327	59
12452 Chelidon Way	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,442 (-2%)	3mo	$463,990	$322	58
12431 Columba Way	0.70mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,440 (-2%)	2mo	$457,646	$318	55
12446 Chelidon Way	0.68mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,440 (-2%)	4mo	$444,000	$308	55
12437 Columba Way	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,307 (-11%)	3mo	$410,000	$314	41
12421 Columba Way	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,307 (-11%)	4mo	$439,990	$337	41
12065 Tiresias Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,662 (+13%)	3mo	$550,000	$331	41
4460 Doric Way	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (+14%)	2mo	$509,990	$305	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $214,365
• Equity at exit: $476,565

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $681,546
• Equity at exit: $1,027,731

Cash invested: $148,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95742

• Home prices YoY: 28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,004 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,774
• Tax from tax record: −$492 /mo · $5,907/yr
• Insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$631
• Net cashflow: $-1,114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,414

Max offer price $332,271

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,250
• Closing costs: $15,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4143 Cahakia Pl Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,795	$1.69	43d	1	0.07mi
4328 Greenshank Cir Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,100	$1.72	43d	1	0.83mi
12579 Bellmead Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1603	$2,650	$1.65	3d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2015-08-31
   soldstatus $303,500
2. 2014-11-14
   soldstatus $258,000
3. 2011-06-27
   soldstatus $173,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,907 · $492/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,907 · $492/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,632
• − Property taxes: −$5,907
• − Insurance: −$2,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,884
• − Management: −$2,884
• − Depreciation: −$15,389
• Taxable loss: −$23,293
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,590
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,773/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,768
• Household income: $155,855
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.05%
• Current HPI: 236.1388
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+212.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $540,000 Public Records
• 2015-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $303,500 Public Records
• 2014-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $258,000 Public Records
• 2011-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $173,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,907 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.