2001 Glen Oaks Dr · Thunderbird Bay, TX 76857

$40,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1987 0.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in the Tamarack Mountain community near Lake Brownwood! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on approximately 0.36 acres and offers plenty of potential for an investor, handyman, weekend getaway, or affordable full-time residence. The property is being sold as-is and is ready for your vision and updates. Enjoy the peaceful setting, mature trees, and convenient access to nearby lake activities, fishing, boating, and outdoor recreation. Whether you’re looking for a project, rental opportunity, or weekend retreat, this property offers a chance to create value at an affordable price point. Buyer to verify all information, measurements, schools, and utilities.

Key facts

• Boating
• Lake activities
• Lake brownwood

Tags

• TAMARACK MOUNTAIN COMMUNITY
• LAKE BROWNWOOD
• MATURE TREES
• LAKE ACTIVITIES
• FISHING
• BOATING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is for sale and listed as Active; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash, Conventional; Loan type treated as clear; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details: See remarks
• Utilities: Utilities: See remarks; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); One story; Manufactured home improvements only (per tax legal description)
• Construction: Built in 1987
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre; Subdivision: Tamarack Mountain Sec I 12; Directions provided to property

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (level 1) — approximately 20 x 20
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One-level layout; One living area; One dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $620 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 24.9% vs local median 3.8% in Thunderbird Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,233 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• May ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #729 of 1,141 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: May El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 120 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 46% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $332 of equity ($277 loan paydown + $55 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.42%
• DSCR: 3.96
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,240
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3310 Surfside Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+5%)	4mo	$95,500	$77	60
3020 Harbor Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-10%)	11mo	$21,999	$21	54
3250 Surfside Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+15%)	12mo	$149,000	$110	44
4060 Lake Shore Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-7%)	23mo	$139,900	$127	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $38,577
• Equity at exit: $11,893

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.04×
• Total profit: $89,993
• Equity at exit: $14,519

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76857

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,109 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $355/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $620

Break-even live

Break-even rent $324

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $643	-5% $631	+0% $620	+5% $609	+10% $597
Rent	-10% $532	-5% $576	+0% $620	+5% $664	+10% $707
Rate	-1.0pp $640	-0.5pp $630	base $620	+0.5pp $610	+1.0pp $599

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on marketlisting id $40,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $45,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 691-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $55,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $355 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $732 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$377/yr (+$31/mo · 106.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$355
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,064
• − Management: −$1,064
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $7,217
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,732
• After-tax cash flow: $5,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: May ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829520
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,809
• Composite: 36.31/100
• National rank: #9397
• State rank: #729 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Thunderbird Bay

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1233
• US rank: #21564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thunderbird Bay, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,118

Population outlook (Brown County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,381 people
• By 2030: 38,288 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 38,120 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 38,227 · -0.4%
• By 2075: 39,362 · +2.6%
• By 2100: 39,171 · +2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Serbian 7% Slovak 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Brown

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.9) · D 12.7% · R 86.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -61.5pp · 2024: -73.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.9 2020: R+72.6 2016: R+74.5 2012: R+71.7 2008: R+61.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Current HPI: 101.8877
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $55,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $355 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.