Tropic Plan · Oak Point, TX 75068

$83,687

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,034 sqft · Manufactured · 377 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and Efficient Living in the Jessup Tropic Model - 3 Bed, 2 Bath, 1,034 Sq. Ft. Step into comfort and style with this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offering 1,034 sq. ft. of thoughtfully utilized space. The Tropic model by Jessup is perfect for those seeking modern convenience without sacrificing charm. Enjoy cooking and entertaining in the spacious kitchen, featuring sleek stainless steel appliances and ample counter space. The built-in entertainment center in the living room adds a cozy focal point that's ideal for relaxing evenings or family gatherings. A hidden utility area adds functionality while keeping clutter tucked away, making daily living easy and organized. With a smart layout that maximizes space, the Tropic offers just the right balance of privacy and openness, making it ideal for families, first-time homeowners, or anyone looking for low-maintenance living in a stylish package. Don't miss your opportunity to own this modern and affordable home built with quality by Jessup.

Key facts

• Smart layout
• Spacious kitchen
• Hidden utility area

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BUILT-IN ENTERTAINMENT CENTER
• HIDDEN UTILITY AREA
• SMART LAYOUT

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.3% vs local median 3.4% in Oak Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#887 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1306 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $578 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 377 days — a 12% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,644 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 377 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.60%
• DSCR: 3.70
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $55,302
• Equity at exit: $12,478

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $120,081
• Equity at exit: $7,236

Cash invested: $23,432 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75068

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 1306
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,230 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$439
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$105 /mo · $1,255/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $1,183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $732

Max offer price $83,687

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,922
• Closing costs: $2,511
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8924 Whirlwind Trl Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,995	$1.39	17d	1	0.19mi
8905 Deadwood Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,290	$1.63	15d	1	0.21mi
8821 Tumbleweed Dr Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,950	$1.42	19d	1	0.60mi
832 Cheyenne Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,300	$1.62	24d	1	0.62mi
8621 Chisholm Trl Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,795	$1.31	44d	1	0.67mi
8929 Holliday Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,895	$1.58	3d	1	0.70mi
9016 Stewart St Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,795	$1.40	8d	1	0.77mi
571 Lloyd's Rd Little Elm, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1751	$2,719	$1.55	1d	32	0.79mi
9005 Stewart St Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$2,300	$1.91	17d	1	0.80mi
9004 Eastwood Ave Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,750	$1.45	12d	1	0.83mi
8801 Stewart St Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,850	$1.53	19d	1	0.85mi
608 Crazy Horse Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$2,155	$1.62	44d	1	0.90mi
8923 Redford Rd Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,945	$1.62	44d	1	0.97mi
4480 FM 720 Aubrey, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$2,319	$2.29	13d	24	1.28mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $83,687 Active 377 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $83,687 Active 376 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $83,687 Active 375 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $83,687 Active 374 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $83,687 Active 372 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $83,687 Active 368 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $83,687 Active 367 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $83,687 Active 366 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $83,687 Active 363 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $83,687 Active 362 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $83,687 Active 361 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $83,687 Active 360 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $83,687 Active 359 DOM
14. 2025-06-06
    listed $83,687 Active 1029-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

    Charming and Efficient Living in the Jessup Tropic Model - 3 Bed, 2 Bath, 1,034 Sq. Ft. Step into comfort and style with this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offering 1,034 sq. ft. of thoughtfully utilized space. The Tropic model by Jessup is perfect for those seeking modern convenience without sacrificing charm. Enjoy cooking and entertaining in the spacious kitchen, featuring sleek stainless steel appliances and ample counter space. The built-in entertainment center in the living room adds a cozy focal point that's ideal for relaxing evenings or family gatherings. A hidden utility area adds functionality while keeping clutter tucked away, making daily living easy and organized. With a smart layout that maximizes space, the Tropic offers just the right balance of privacy and openness, making it ideal for families, first-time homeowners, or anyone looking for low-maintenance living in a stylish package. Don't miss your opportunity to own this modern and affordable home built with quality by Jessup.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,688
• − Property taxes: −$1,255
• − Insurance: −$418
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,141
• − Management: −$2,141
• − Depreciation: −$2,435
• Taxable income: $13,681
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,284
• After-tax cash flow: $10,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Tropic Plan manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good balance of modern amenities and curb appeal, making it a strong candidate for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — Increases functionality and appeal for both resale and rental

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — Increases functionality and appeal for both resale and rental ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Point

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #15941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,710
• Household income: $126,635
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 829.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.41%
• Current HPI: 249.755
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.50%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-06 Listed $83,687 Zillow