1607 N 30th St · Richmond, VA 23223

$210,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1946 5,959 sqft lot Est $207k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to own in Churchill. A two-bedroom home with central air. All of the major systems have been updated over the past few years. Newer roof, vinyl siding, windows. The upstairs attic space has heat and air also. There is also a 2 car detached garage. There is a fully fenced yard and cute front porch, too. Property sold in its AS IS condition.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Vinyl siding
• Central air

Tags

• CENTRAL AIR
• NEWER ROOF
• VINYL SIDING
• UPDATED MAJOR SYSTEMS
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• UPSTAIRS ATTIC SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Public transportation nearby

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Two garage spaces; Off-street parking with alley access; On-street parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property; Mixed construction with drywall, frame, plaster, and vinyl siding
• Construction: Drywall, frame, plaster and vinyl siding construction; Garage(s) on property
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Exterior lighting; Chain link full fencing (fenced); Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub and shower (on first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood flooring in main living areas; Bedroom located on the main level
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-208/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#33 in VA, #793 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-.
• Richmond City Public School District (urban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #123 of 131 in VA (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,540 units permitted in Richmond city in 2024 (2,077 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected at +40% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,445 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.35%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,832
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1523 N 29th	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	756 (+2%)	6mo	$210,000	$278	83
1808 N 29th St	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-3%)	0mo	$240,000	$333	83
1701 Peter Paul Blvd	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-3%)	4mo	$160,000	$222	75
1906 N 29th St	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	704 (-5%)	8mo	$192,000	$273	70
2503 Peter Paul Blvd	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-3%)	8mo	$150,000	$208	64
1201 N 34th St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-3%)	7mo	$215,000	$299	64
1813 N 24th St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	667 (-10%)	1mo	$220,000	$330	58
1329 N 26 Th St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	798 (+7%)	13mo	$285,000	$357	56
2117 Selden St	0.67mi	3/1.0	796 (+7%)	2mo	$190,000	$239	56
2209 N 26th St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	672 (-10%)	7mo	$137,000	$204	48
1508 N 20th St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (+10%)	6mo	$235,000	$288	43
1309 N 38th St	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	852 (+14%)	10mo	$160,000	$188	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-29,531
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,463
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23223

• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,614 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,248/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,636

Max offer price $206,936

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1906 N 29th St Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	704	$1,000	$1.42	4d	1	0.21mi
2108 Phaup St Unit D Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	24d	1	0.72mi
3528 E Richmond Rd Unit U5 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	692	$1,145	$1.65	24d	1	0.75mi
621 N 32nd St Unit C Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,299	$1.86	4d	1	0.77mi
613 N 32nd St Apt C Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,650	$2.75	4d	1	0.79mi
600 N 32nd St Unit C Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,350	$1.93	44d	1	0.82mi
509 N 30th St Unit 2 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,365	$1.82	21d	1	0.86mi
500 N 18th St Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	737	$1,837	$2.49	2d	11	1.14mi
1903 E Marshall St Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0–2.0	723	$1,799	$2.49	2d	57	1.17mi
1820 E Broad St Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	665	$2,476	$3.72	21d	15	1.21mi
2201 E Franklin St Richmond, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	905	$2,349	$2.59	3d	7	1.29mi
2525 E Main St Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	736	$1,895	$2.57	2d	10	1.30mi
2213 E Franklin St Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$2,049	$2.38	4d	6	1.30mi
16 N 22nd St Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	844	$1,675	$1.98	3d	7	1.31mi
2801 E Main St Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$2,312	$2.90	2d	16	1.32mi
1901 Whitcomb St Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	24d	1	1.33mi
2 S 25th St Richmond, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,360	$2.25	2d	69	1.35mi
2001 E Franklin St Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	761	$1,862	$2.45	3d	34	1.36mi
1806 E Franklin St Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	703	$2,005	$2.85	2d	12	1.37mi
1817 E Main St Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	846	$1,955	$2.31	2d	40	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $210,000 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $210,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $210,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $210,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $210,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-05-27
   listed $210,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,248 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,722 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$474/yr (+$40/mo · 38.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,248
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,550
• − Management: −$1,550
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,897
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$935
• After-tax cash flow: $727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103240
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,276
• Composite: 33.09/100
• National rank: #5564
• State rank: #123 of 131 in VA

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #793

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime D- Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Richmond, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• City population: 287,109
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 54,659
• Household income: $55,731
• Rent vs Own: 56.2% rent · 43.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3530.0

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,263 people
• By 2030: 284,503 · +8.5%
• By 2040: 327,353 · +24.8%
• By 2050: 367,946 · +40.3%
• By 2075: 449,560 · +71.4%
• By 2100: 500,301 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+66.3) · D 82.0% · R 15.8% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: 59.1pp · 2024: 66.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+66.3 2020: D+68.0 2016: D+63.8 2012: D+55.7 2008: D+59.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -257.81%
• Current HPI: 324.0589
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.38%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $210,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,248 · +42.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.