4 2nd St · Ellwood City, PA 16117

$69,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1923 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming all-brick 4-bedroom, 2 full bath home offering timeless character and plenty of space! From the moment you walk in, you’ll appreciate the large rooms, soaring high ceilings, and classic feel throughout. The flat yard offers the perfect space for relaxing, entertaining, pets, or play. Conveniently located close to town, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this home is full of potential and ready for its next chapter. A great opportunity to make a solid brick home your own!

Key facts

• Close to town
• All-brick
• Shopping

Tags

• ALL-BRICK
• FLAT YARD
• ON AND OFF-STREET PARKING
• CLOSE TO TOWN
• SHOPPING
• DINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; On-street parking; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Construction: Brick construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Resale property

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: Upper: Bedroom 4; Upper: Bedroom 3; Main: Bedroom 2
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Has fireplace (1); Carpet, Hardwood, Vinyl flooring; Has basement; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.3% in Ellwood City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#610 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellwood City Area SD (town): math 28% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #334 of 539 in PA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.9% of price; built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $69,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.40%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
328 Line Ave	0.26mi	2/2.5	1,203 (+0%)	2mo	$205,000	$170	86
209 Line Ave	0.25mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,206 (+0%)	3mo	$180,000	$149	76
309 Crescent Ave	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,132 (-6%)	0mo	$25,000	$22	67
104 Pittsburgh Cir	0.06mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,334 (+11%)	4mo	$100,000	$75	66
635 Todd Ave	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,106 (-8%)	6mo	$141,000	$127	57
417 Division Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,144 (-5%)	2mo	$180,000	$157	48
223 Division Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,272 (+6%)	5mo	$50,000	$39	47
44 Franklin Ave	0.64mi	2/1.5	1,081 (-10%)	4mo	$161,000	$149	47
705 Park Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,330 (+11%)	1mo	$155,000	$117	41
421 Wayne Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,375 (+15%)	1mo	$167,500	$122	39
719 Crescent Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,024 (-15%)	2mo	$61,890	$60	38
732 Crescent Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,344 (+12%)	5mo	$95,400	$71	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-2,431
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $9,523
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16117

• Home prices YoY: -7.5%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,360/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $849

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $353	+0% $135	+5% $116	+10% $96
Rent	-10% $55	-5% $95	+0% $135	+5% $176	+10% $216
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $153	base $135	+0.5pp $117	+1.0pp $99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
716 Hazel Ave Ellwood City, PA	3.0	1.5	1037	$1,350	$1.30	4d	1	0.55mi
56 Franklin Ave Unit A Ellwood City, PA	1.0	1.0	800	$765	$0.96	44d	1	0.65mi
56 Franklin Ave Unit B Ellwood City, PA	1.0	1.0	800	$765	$0.96	13d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $69,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,360 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,360 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$3,360
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$979
• − Management: −$979
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $705
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$169
• After-tax cash flow: $1,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellwood City Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4209240
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $44,230
• Composite: 35.49/100
• National rank: #4921
• State rank: #334 of 539 in PA

Livability — Ellwood City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #610
• US rank: #5866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellwood City, PA
• Population (ZIP): 16,013

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,781 people
• By 2030: 77,978 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 69,522 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 61,344 · -25.0%
• By 2075: 45,027 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 31,305 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.8% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.81%
• Current HPI: 257.3336
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $69,000 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,360 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.