14950 W Mountain View Blvd #1208 · Surprise, AZ 85374

$172,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Condo public records · 288 Days on market

Built 1998 $207/sqft · 26% below area Est $233k · 26% under $512/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting 1-bedroom, 1-bath Ventana plan condo is ideally located on the 2nd floor near the elevator, offering easy access & peaceful north-facing views of a lush, tree-shaded courtyard & sparkling pool. Enjoy NEW flooring, water heater & newer stainless steel appliances! The 9' ceilings & open layout create a bright, airy feel filled w/ natural light. The kitchen offers a functional design w/ ample storage, opening to the living area for comfortable everyday living. Covered parking space #6 adds convenience. Located in the beautifully maintained 45+ La Solana community featuring a clubhouse, saltwater temperature-controlled pool, mail room & close proximity to shopping, dining & medical. 2-year Achosa Home Warranty included.

Key facts

• $512 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-62/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (0.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
• Recommended offer: $151k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kingswood Elementary School (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #525 of 1,109 statewide, top 48%, 791 students, 59% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 406 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,020
• List price: $172,000
• Delta: -26.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-33,444
• Equity at exit: $25,646

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-49,824
• Equity at exit: $14,871

Cash invested: $48,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,967 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $881/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$512
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,973

Max offer price $171,094

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $44	+0% $-5	+5% $-54	+10% $-102
Rent	-10% $-161	-5% $-83	+0% $-5	+5% $73	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $39	base $-5	+0.5pp $-50	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,000
• Closing costs: $5,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14950 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0–1.5	766	$2,230	$2.91	0d	3	0.12mi
14950 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0–1.5	766	$2,388	$3.12	45d	3	0.12mi
14950 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0–1.5	766	$2,450	$3.20	0d	2	0.12mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1345	$1,375	$1.02	6d	8	0.49mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1195	$1,595	$1.33	0d	6	0.49mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1345	$1,550	$1.15	13d	9	0.49mi
15032 W Jackpot Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	923	$1,600	$1.73	26d	1	0.67mi
17927 N Parkview Pl Surprise, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,288	$1.31	0d	8	0.75mi
14155 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,243	$1.45	0d	12	0.90mi
14817 W Juneberry Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,800	$1.62	26d	1	0.96mi
16945 N Stadium Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,475	$1.49	0d	22	1.38mi
14300 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	946	$1,948	$2.06	14d	2	1.43mi
15893 W Arrowhead Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1099	$1,700	$1.55	7d	1	1.47mi
13635 W Utica Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1084	$2,750	$2.54	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $512 · $6,144/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $172,000 Active 288 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $172,000 Active 285 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $172,000 Active 284 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $172,000 Active 283 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $172,000 Active 282 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $172,000 Active 280 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $172,000 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $172,000 Active 275 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $172,000 Active 274 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $172,000 Active 271 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $172,000 Active 270 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $172,000 Active 269 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $172,000 Active 268 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $172,000 Active 267 DOM
15. 2026-04-26
    price $172,000 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    This inviting 1-bedroom, 1-bath Ventana plan condo is ideally located on the 2nd floor near the elevator, offering easy access & peaceful north-facing views of a lush, tree-shaded courtyard & sparkling pool. Enjoy NEW flooring, water heater & newer stainless steel appliances! The 9' ceilings & open layout create a bright, airy feel filled w/ natural light. The kitchen offers a functional design w/ ample storage, opening to the living area for comfortable everyday living. Covered parking space #6 adds convenience. Located in the beautifully maintained 45+ La Solana community featuring a clubhouse, saltwater temperature-controlled pool, mail room & close proximity to shopping, dining & medical. 2-year Achosa Home Warranty included.

16. 2026-03-22
    price $175,000 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    This inviting 1-bedroom, 1-bath Ventana plan condo is ideally located on the 2nd floor near the elevator, offering easy access & peaceful north-facing views of a lush, tree-shaded courtyard & sparkling pool. Enjoy NEW flooring, water heater & newer stainless steel appliances! The 9' ceilings & open layout create a bright, airy feel filled w/ natural light. The kitchen offers a functional design w/ ample storage, opening to the living area for comfortable everyday living. Covered parking space #6 adds convenience. Located in the beautifully maintained 45+ La Solana community featuring a clubhouse, saltwater temperature-controlled pool, mail room & close proximity to shopping, dining & medical. 2-year Achosa Home Warranty included.

17. 2026-02-24
    price $184,900 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    This inviting 1-bedroom, 1-bath Ventana plan condo is ideally located on the 2nd floor near the elevator, offering easy access & peaceful north-facing views of a lush, tree-shaded courtyard & sparkling pool. Enjoy NEW flooring, water heater & newer stainless steel appliances! The 9' ceilings & open layout create a bright, airy feel filled w/ natural light. The kitchen offers a functional design w/ ample storage, opening to the living area for comfortable everyday living. Covered parking space #6 adds convenience. Located in the beautifully maintained 45+ La Solana community featuring a clubhouse, saltwater temperature-controlled pool, mail room & close proximity to shopping, dining & medical. 2-year Achosa Home Warranty included.

18. 2025-11-16
    price $189,900 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    This inviting 1-bedroom, 1-bath Ventana plan condo is ideally located on the 2nd floor near the elevator, offering easy access & peaceful north-facing views of a lush, tree-shaded courtyard & sparkling pool. Enjoy NEW flooring, water heater & newer stainless steel appliances! The 9' ceilings & open layout create a bright, airy feel filled w/ natural light. The kitchen offers a functional design w/ ample storage, opening to the living area for comfortable everyday living. Covered parking space #6 adds convenience. Located in the beautifully maintained 45+ La Solana community featuring a clubhouse, saltwater temperature-controlled pool, mail room & close proximity to shopping, dining & medical. 2-year Achosa Home Warranty included.

19. 2025-10-19
    status Active 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    This inviting 1-bedroom, 1-bath Ventana plan condo is ideally located on the 2nd floor near the elevator, offering easy access & peaceful north-facing views of a lush, tree-shaded courtyard & sparkling pool. Enjoy NEW flooring, water heater & newer stainless steel appliances! The 9' ceilings & open layout create a bright, airy feel filled w/ natural light. The kitchen offers a functional design w/ ample storage, opening to the living area for comfortable everyday living. Covered parking space #6 adds convenience. Located in the beautifully maintained 45+ La Solana community featuring a clubhouse, saltwater temperature-controlled pool, mail room & close proximity to shopping, dining & medical. 2-year Achosa Home Warranty included.

20. 2025-10-16
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    This inviting 1-bedroom, 1-bath Ventana plan condo is ideally located on the 2nd floor near the elevator, offering easy access & peaceful north-facing views of a lush, tree-shaded courtyard & sparkling pool. Enjoy NEW flooring, water heater & newer stainless steel appliances! The 9' ceilings & open layout create a bright, airy feel filled w/ natural light. The kitchen offers a functional design w/ ample storage, opening to the living area for comfortable everyday living. Covered parking space #6 adds convenience. Located in the beautifully maintained 45+ La Solana community featuring a clubhouse, saltwater temperature-controlled pool, mail room & close proximity to shopping, dining & medical. 2-year Achosa Home Warranty included.

21. 2025-09-23
    price $197,000 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    This inviting 1-bedroom, 1-bath Ventana plan condo is ideally located on the 2nd floor near the elevator, offering easy access & peaceful north-facing views of a lush, tree-shaded courtyard & sparkling pool. Enjoy NEW flooring, water heater & newer stainless steel appliances! The 9' ceilings & open layout create a bright, airy feel filled w/ natural light. The kitchen offers a functional design w/ ample storage, opening to the living area for comfortable everyday living. Covered parking space #6 adds convenience. Located in the beautifully maintained 45+ La Solana community featuring a clubhouse, saltwater temperature-controlled pool, mail room & close proximity to shopping, dining & medical. 2-year Achosa Home Warranty included.

22. 2025-09-08
    price $205,000 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    This inviting 1-bedroom, 1-bath Ventana plan condo is ideally located on the 2nd floor near the elevator, offering easy access & peaceful north-facing views of a lush, tree-shaded courtyard & sparkling pool. Enjoy NEW flooring, water heater & newer stainless steel appliances! The 9' ceilings & open layout create a bright, airy feel filled w/ natural light. The kitchen offers a functional design w/ ample storage, opening to the living area for comfortable everyday living. Covered parking space #6 adds convenience. Located in the beautifully maintained 45+ La Solana community featuring a clubhouse, saltwater temperature-controlled pool, mail room & close proximity to shopping, dining & medical. 2-year Achosa Home Warranty included.

23. 2025-09-06
    listed $219,900 Active 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    This inviting 1-bedroom, 1-bath Ventana plan condo is ideally located on the 2nd floor near the elevator, offering easy access & peaceful north-facing views of a lush, tree-shaded courtyard & sparkling pool. Enjoy NEW flooring, water heater & newer stainless steel appliances! The 9' ceilings & open layout create a bright, airy feel filled w/ natural light. The kitchen offers a functional design w/ ample storage, opening to the living area for comfortable everyday living. Covered parking space #6 adds convenience. Located in the beautifully maintained 45+ La Solana community featuring a clubhouse, saltwater temperature-controlled pool, mail room & close proximity to shopping, dining & medical. 2-year Achosa Home Warranty included.

24. 2025-07-03
    historical
25. 2025-04-05
    price $219,900
26. 2025-02-04
    price $224,900
27. 2024-09-26
    listed $225,000 Active
28. 2021-07-30
    soldstatus $172,000 Closed
29. 2021-07-30
    soldstatus $172,000
30. 2021-06-29
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
31. 2021-06-19
    listed $169,000 Active
32. 2012-05-16
    historical
33. 2012-05-02
    status Active
34. 2012-04-29
    historical
35. 2012-03-15
    listed $109,900 Active
36. 2005-01-31
    soldstatus $90,500
37. 2005-01-28
    historical
38. 2004-12-15
    listed $90,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $881 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,135 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$254/yr (+$21/mo · 28.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,635
• − Property taxes: −$881
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − HOA: −$6,144
• − Depreciation: −$5,004
• Taxable loss: −$2,696
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$647
• After-tax cash flow: $585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+90.1% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $172,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $184,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $189,900 ARMLS
• 2025-10-19 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $197,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $205,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-06 Listed $219,900 ARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-04-05 Price Changed $219,900 ARMLS
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $224,900 ARMLS
• 2024-09-26 Listed $225,000 ARMLS
• 2021-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-30 Sold (MLS) $172,000 ARMLS
• 2021-06-29 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-06-19 Listed $169,000 ARMLS
• 2012-05-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2012-05-02 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2012-04-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2012-03-15 Listed $109,900 ARMLS
• 2005-01-31 Sold (MLS) $90,500 ARMLS
• 2005-01-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-12-15 Listed $90,500 ARMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $881 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.