4803 Pebble Brook St · Baytown, TX 77521

$95,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,588 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1975 3,497 sqft lot $60/sqft · 61% below area $67/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The search is over! Lovely 2/2/2 w/ hardwood bamboo flooring throughout living areas! Formal living room w/ half vaulted ceiling! The family room is great for entertaining & features a wood burning fireplace! Whip up delicious meals in the kitchen equipped w/ granite counter tops & a serving bar! Retire after a long day to the spacious master suite boasting 2 walk-in closets & master bath w/ tile flooring & dbl sinks! Huge secondary bedroom w/ walk-in closet! Covered tile back patio! Call Now!

Key facts

• 3,497 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Shady Hill association with $800 annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story entry (first floor living areas shown)
• Construction: Built in 1975; Wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on first floor (16x12); Bedroom on first floor (16x14)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1); Seller disclosure available
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (other level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: High Point School (12 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $663 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,023 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.40%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,046
• List price: $95,900
• Delta: -60.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4800 Oak Hollow St	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,488 (-6%)	2mo	$149,999	$101	85
4809 Forest Ct	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,449 (-9%)	7mo	$175,000	$121	75
4804 Oak Hollow St	0.06mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,607 (+1%)	16mo	$165,000	$103	75
4019 Spurwing Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,494 (-6%)	1mo	$230,000	$154	62
3910 Egyptian Goose Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-1%)	17mo	$249,900	$159	60
2914 Canadian Goose Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,603 (+1%)	14mo	$276,000	$172	57
4007 Dusky Goose Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,477 (-7%)	10mo	$239,900	$162	56
3242 Specklebelly Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,477 (-7%)	9mo	$235,000	$159	54
3926 Hybrid Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,770 (+12%)	9mo	$255,000	$144	53
4019 Cape Barren Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,374 (-14%)	5mo	$229,999	$167	46
4517 Coachman Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+11%)	11mo	$230,000	$131	35
2810 Specklebelly Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+14%)	16mo	$300,000	$166	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $12,515
• Equity at exit: $14,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $40,441
• Equity at exit: $8,292

Cash invested: $26,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 612
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,738 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,408/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,132

Max offer price $95,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,975
• Closing costs: $2,877
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3400 Shady Hill Dr Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,012	$1.99	1d	21	0.09mi
2906 W Baker Rd Unit 901 Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,185	$1.11	43d	1	0.78mi
3723 Emmett Hutto Blvd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1216	$1,650	$1.36	43d	1	0.89mi
2800 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$1,455	$1.47	4d	28	0.93mi
5406 Carousel Cir Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,761	$1.11	43d	1	0.97mi
5405 Shirley St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1630	$1,703	$1.04	24d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $95,900 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,900 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $95,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,900 Pending 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $95,900 Pending 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   status $95,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,900 Pending 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $95,900 Pending 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $95,900 Pending 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,900 Pending 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    status $95,900 Pending 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    listed $95,900 Active 276-char remark
15. 2016-12-06
    soldstatus
16. 2016-12-05
    soldstatus Sold 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    The search is over! Lovely 2/2/2 w/ hardwood bamboo flooring throughout living areas! Formal living room w/ half vaulted ceiling! The family room is great for entertaining & features a wood burning fireplace! Whip up delicious meals in the kitchen equipped w/ granite counter tops & a serving bar! Retire after a long day to the spacious master suite boasting 2 walk-in closets & master bath w/ tile flooring & dbl sinks! Huge secondary bedroom w/ walk-in closet! Covered tile back patio! Call Now!

17. 2016-11-07
    status Pending, Continue to Show 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    The search is over! Lovely 2/2/2 w/ hardwood bamboo flooring throughout living areas! Formal living room w/ half vaulted ceiling! The family room is great for entertaining & features a wood burning fireplace! Whip up delicious meals in the kitchen equipped w/ granite counter tops & a serving bar! Retire after a long day to the spacious master suite boasting 2 walk-in closets & master bath w/ tile flooring & dbl sinks! Huge secondary bedroom w/ walk-in closet! Covered tile back patio! Call Now!

18. 2016-10-31
    listed $79,990 Active 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    The search is over! Lovely 2/2/2 w/ hardwood bamboo flooring throughout living areas! Formal living room w/ half vaulted ceiling! The family room is great for entertaining & features a wood burning fireplace! Whip up delicious meals in the kitchen equipped w/ granite counter tops & a serving bar! Retire after a long day to the spacious master suite boasting 2 walk-in closets & master bath w/ tile flooring & dbl sinks! Huge secondary bedroom w/ walk-in closet! Covered tile back patio! Call Now!

19. 2011-07-14
    historical
20. 2010-11-04
    listed $78,000
21. 2010-06-22
    historical
22. 2009-12-21
    listed $79,500
23. 2004-11-03
    soldstatus
24. 1992-11-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,408 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,408 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,372
• − Property taxes: −$3,408
• − Insurance: −$480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,668
• − Management: −$1,668
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$2,790
• Taxable income: $4,663
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,119
• After-tax cash flow: $4,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+20.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-06-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $95,900 HARMLS
• 2016-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-12-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-11-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-10-31 Listed $79,990 HARMLS
• 2011-07-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-11-04 Listed $78,000 HARMLS
• 2010-06-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-12-21 Listed $79,500 HARMLS
• 2004-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,408 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.