338 Reoh Rd · Quail Creek, TX 77905

$59,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2020

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very nice, like new, 2018 Clayton Home model #31SSP16723AH17. It sits in a quiet community (Victoria Creek Estates) just outside the city limits on a . 25 acre lot. Home has all new faucets, carpet, and ceiling fans. House was painted less than a year ago and includes all appliances; fridge, dishwasher, and A/C. Nice big deck to enjoy the tranquil environment! Lot rent $425mo. or can be moved to your lot.

Key facts

• New carpet
• New faucets
• New ceiling fans

Tags

• QUIET COMMUNITY
• NEW FAUCETS
• NEW CARPET
• NEW CEILING FANS
• BIG DECK
• ALL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $828 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.0% vs local median 2.1% in Quail Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#476 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $411 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,715 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.63%
• DSCR: 3.65
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $43,103
• Equity at exit: $8,872

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.33×
• Total profit: $105,505
• Equity at exit: $5,144

Cash invested: $16,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77905

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$312
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $812/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $828

Break-even live

Break-even rent $512

Max offer price $59,500

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,875
• Closing costs: $1,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,500 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,500 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,500 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,500 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,500 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,500 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,500 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,500 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,500 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,500 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,500 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,500 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,500 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,500 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,500 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,500 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $59,500 Active 408-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,089 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$276/yr (+$23/mo · 34.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,333
• − Property taxes: −$812
• − Insurance: −$298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$1,731
• Taxable income: $9,550
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,292
• After-tax cash flow: $7,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Quail Creek

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #9560

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,346

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 18% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.60%
• Current HPI: 139.4036
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $59,500 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $812 · -6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.