12229 Lookout Loop Unit F5-13 · Truckee, CA 96161

$13,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,895 sqft · Timeshare · 56 Days on market

$4/sqft · 33% below area Est $19k · 33% under $869/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy this recently updated 4-bedroom Cabin nestled in the heart of Old Greenwood, offering a unique shared ownership opportunity. Your ownership includes Winter week 13 (Late-March) for your primary use, as well as rotating mid-week and flex-week reservations. This cabin boasts a thoughtfully designed layout with two primary bedrooms on the main level, complemented by an inviting upstairs loft, spacious bunk room, upstairs suite, and a versatile office featuring a convenient Murphy bed. The perfect blend of comfort and functionality. As an owner, you'll relish in preferred access to two championship golf courses at the Tahoe Mountain Club, ensuring that every moment of your stay is filled

Key facts

• Pool and gym
• World-class facility
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• COMPLIMENTARY SHUTTLE SERVICE
• PRIVATE MEMBERS LOUNGES
• WORLD-CLASS FACILITY
• POOL AND GYM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool; Tennis courts; On-site golf course access; Cross-country skiing; Downhill skiing; Fitness equipment; Quarterly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Two covered parking spaces
• Utilities: View of mountains; Golf course view
• Home design: Timeshare property; Two-story
• Exterior features: On golf course lot; Hot tub

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Microwave; Disposal; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Interior features: Mountain architectural style; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath timeshare listed at $13k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($63k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $13k).
• Recommended offer: $13k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 493.7% vs local median 2.0% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,898/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($132k/yr) (locally 559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $90 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $390 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($13k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $12,610 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 60.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 493.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1740.81%
• DSCR: 78.46
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $19,346
• List price: $13,000
• Delta: -32.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 101.11×
• Total profit: $364,418
• Equity at exit: $1,938

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 243.76×
• Total profit: $883,630
• Equity at exit: $1,124

Cash invested: $3,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96161

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,898 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$68
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$16 /mo · $195/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$869
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,659
• Net cashflow: $5,280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,214

Max offer price $13,000

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,250
• Closing costs: $390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10175 Annies Loop Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2194	$7,500	$3.42	44d	1	1.22mi
10077 Jake S Way Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2552	$10,500	$4.11	44d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $869 · $10,428/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $13,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $13,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $13,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $13,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $13,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $13,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $13,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $13,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $13,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $13,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $15,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $15,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $15,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $15,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $15,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $15,000 Active 1150-char remark
17. 2015-01-17
    price $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $94,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$728
• − Property taxes: −$195
• − Insurance: −$65
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,582
• − Management: −$7,582
• − HOA: −$10,428
• − Depreciation: −$378
• Taxable income: $67,816
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,276
• After-tax cash flow: $47,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahoe-Truckee Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,136
• Composite: 44.38/100
• National rank: #2816
• State rank: #136 of 517 in CA

Livability — Truckee

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #697
• US rank: #21110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Truckee, CA
• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• City population: 19,634
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 19,634
• Household income: $131,702
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.87%
• Current HPI: 336.9632
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $13,000 TSMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $15,000 TSMLS
• 2015-01-17 Price Changed $14,000 TSMLS