6414 Fort Worth Ave · Odessa, TX 79762

$209,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,180 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1954 0.50 ac lot $96/sqft · at area comps Est $211k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home on almost 1/2 acre with tons of potential. Huge master bedroom with large bath, plentiful closets and a jetted garden tub. The second bathroom is brand new as is the laundry room. Lots of room in the yard for gardening , bbqs and work spaces.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1954
• Listed 85 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $345 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.08%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,043
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -0.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-15,278
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,469
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79762

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,186/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,623

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1311 E 52nd St Unit 1 Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,950	$1.38	21d	1	0.92mi
6302 Oracle Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,700	$1.80	21d	1	1.20mi
2304 Boise Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$2,300	$1.34	21d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $209,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $209,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-03-26
    listed $220,000 Active
18. 2025-01-16
    soldstatus Closed 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Great home on almost 1/2 acre with tons of potential. Huge master bedroom with large bath, plentiful closets and a jetted garden tub. The second bathroom is brand new as is the laundry room. Lots of room in the yard for gardening , bbqs and work spaces.

19. 2025-01-16
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Great home on almost 1/2 acre with tons of potential. Huge master bedroom with large bath, plentiful closets and a jetted garden tub. The second bathroom is brand new as is the laundry room. Lots of room in the yard for gardening , bbqs and work spaces.

20. 2024-12-23
    status Pending 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Great home on almost 1/2 acre with tons of potential. Huge master bedroom with large bath, plentiful closets and a jetted garden tub. The second bathroom is brand new as is the laundry room. Lots of room in the yard for gardening , bbqs and work spaces.

21. 2024-12-01
    price $165,000 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Great home on almost 1/2 acre with tons of potential. Huge master bedroom with large bath, plentiful closets and a jetted garden tub. The second bathroom is brand new as is the laundry room. Lots of room in the yard for gardening , bbqs and work spaces.

22. 2024-09-05
    price $185,000 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Great home on almost 1/2 acre with tons of potential. Huge master bedroom with large bath, plentiful closets and a jetted garden tub. The second bathroom is brand new as is the laundry room. Lots of room in the yard for gardening , bbqs and work spaces.

23. 2024-08-15
    listed $199,000 Active 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Great home on almost 1/2 acre with tons of potential. Huge master bedroom with large bath, plentiful closets and a jetted garden tub. The second bathroom is brand new as is the laundry room. Lots of room in the yard for gardening , bbqs and work spaces.

24. 1997-08-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,186 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,825 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,638/yr (+$220/mo · 222.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,720
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$1,186
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,978
• − Management: −$1,978
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable income: $746
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$179
• After-tax cash flow: $3,966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,927
• Household income: $75,272
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1477.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 38% Two or more races 22% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.97%
• Current HPI: 229.6022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.36%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $220,000 ODMLS
• 2025-01-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-16 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2024-12-23 Pending — ODMLS
• 2024-12-01 Price Changed $165,000 ODMLS
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $185,000 ODMLS
• 2024-08-15 Listed $199,000 ODMLS
• 1997-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,186 · -50.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.