24001 Muirlands Blvd #138 · Lake Forest, CA 92630

$219,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 20 Days on market

Built 1975 Good condition $190/sqft · 22% above area Est $180k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Community Information Forest Gardens is a 5 Star Gated Community Close to Everything and Beautiful with Lakes and Geese. Winding Roads and Cul De Sac Homes, Lots of Trees & Grass, Large Clubhouse, Workout Area, Spa, Pool, Community Amenities & Lifestyle: - Beautifully Landscaped & Peaceful Community - Experience quiet, well-maintained surroundings. - Resort-Style Pool & Spa - Perfect for socializing and relaxation. - Clubhouse & Social Events - Join an active community with events, fitness classes, and social gatherings. - Paths & Green Spaces - Enjoy daily walks and fresh air. - Nearby Shopping, Dining & Medical Facilities - Convenient access to

Key facts

• Gated community
• Clubhouse
• Private back yard

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• GREEN SPACES
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• PRIVATE BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision listed as Other (Forest Gardens); Directions available from community entrance
• Financial info: Monthly land lease of $1,295 (park lease)
• HOA & community: Senior community; Community offers pool and spa; Street lighting in community; Park name: Forest Gardens; Manager approval required; Pets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with 3 spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; Single story; Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Mobile home 24 x 48 (width x length); Year built reported by builder
• Exterior features: Association in-ground pool; Yard; One shed on property

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: One-level layout; Entry on main level; Association in-ground spa
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $980 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $219k).
• Recommended offer: $216k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 2.0% in Lake Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#387 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Saddleback Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #67 of 517 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rancho Canada Elementary (632 students, 34% FRL); Serrano Intermediate (977 students, 48% FRL); El Toro High (math 53% / reading 77%, grade B, #161 of 1,170 statewide, top 14%, 2,031 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 22% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,715 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.18%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,945
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: 21.70%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24001 Muirlands #4	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,240 (+8%)	22mo	$180,000	$145	67
24001 Murilands Blvd #25	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,320 (+15%)	7mo	$209,000	$158	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $25,425
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $96,409
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92630

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,156 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,285/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$663
• Net cashflow: $980

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,916

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,131	-5% $1,056	+0% $980	+5% $904	+10% $829
Rent	-10% $731	-5% $855	+0% $980	+5% $1,105	+10% $1,229
Rate	-1.0pp $1,090	-0.5pp $1,036	base $980	+0.5pp $923	+1.0pp $865

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22700 Lake Forest Dr Lake Forest, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$3,235	$3.21	1d	1	0.40mi
22602 Cottonwood Cir Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1301	$4,250	$3.27	45d	1	0.52mi
24246 Swiftriver Ct Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.5	905	$2,750	$3.04	26d	1	0.59mi
24241 Swiftriver Ct Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.5	905	$2,850	$3.15	45d	1	0.59mi
23333 Ridge Route Dr Lake Forest, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$3,100	$3.47	4d	9	1.06mi
25092 Farthing St Lake Forest, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$3,278	$3.72	1d	5	1.32mi
2369 Via Mariposa E Unit 1B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1340	$2,950	$2.20	45d	1	1.36mi
2293 Via Puerta Unit O Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1057	$3,100	$2.93	21d	1	1.46mi
2269 Via Puerta Unit N Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1057	$2,700	$2.55	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on marketlisting id $219,000 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-05-17
    historical
15. 2026-05-01
    status Active
16. 2026-04-20
    status Pending Sale
17. 2026-04-17
    price $219,000
18. 2026-03-27
    listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,285
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,030
• − Management: −$3,030
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable income: $8,796
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,111
• After-tax cash flow: $9,648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting atmosphere
• Both Updating ceiling fans with modern fixtures — Modernizes the living spaces and improves airflow

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting atmosphere ↑
• Both Updating ceiling fans with modern fixtures — Modernizes the living spaces and improves airflow ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saddleback Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633860
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $85,577
• Composite: 56.05/100
• National rank: #1185
• State rank: #67 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Forest

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #387
• US rank: #13130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Forest, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 80,019
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,152
• Household income: $125,853
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2412.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 27% Asian 19% Two or more races 16% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 18% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -866.99%
• Current HPI: 436.6189
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.51%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $219,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $219,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $215,000 CRMLS