111 Shadow Ter · Hot Springs, AR 71901

$55,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,032 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1938 0.25 ac lot $27/sqft · 49% below area Est $108k · 49% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all investors and contractors! Renovation duplex project with huge upside potential in a prime Hot Springs location, between Oaklawn and downtown. This is a roll-up-your-sleeves renovation project for experienced investors and contractors ready to capitalize on Hot Springs booming rental market. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own income-producing real estate in one of Arkansas's hottest tourism markets. Newer roof and tons of potential here! Listing broker owns the subject property. Listing broker does not provide buyer or seller representation in the State of Arkansas.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1938

Tags

• PRIME HOT SPRINGS LOCATION
• INCOME PRODUCING REAL ESTATE
• NEWER ROOF
• BOOMING RENTAL MARKET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $745/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.8% vs local median 2.8% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hot Springs School District (urban): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #195 of 238 in AR (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,322/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 961% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $55k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 116.18%
• DSCR: 6.17
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,992
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -49.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
608/610 Oakcliff St	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,860 (-8%)	17mo	$55,000	$30	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.59×
• Total profit: $86,062
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.81×
• Total profit: $197,270
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71901

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,322 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $385/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $1,491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $435

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,522	-5% $1,507	+0% $1,491	+5% $1,475	+10% $1,460
Rent	-10% $1,308	-5% $1,399	+0% $1,491	+5% $1,583	+10% $1,674
Rate	-1.0pp $1,519	-0.5pp $1,505	base $1,491	+0.5pp $1,477	+1.0pp $1,462

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,322
Total (2 units)			$2,322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
319 Hazel St Hot Springs National Park, AR	3.0	2.0	1743	$1,895	$1.09	44d	1	0.60mi
228 Henderson St Hot Springs National Park, AR	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,000	$1.26	44d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 108 DOM
17. 2026-02-11
    listed $55,000 Active 589-char remark

    Show marketing remark (589 chars)

    Calling all investors and contractors! Renovation duplex project with huge upside potential in a prime Hot Springs location, between Oaklawn and downtown. This is a roll-up-your-sleeves renovation project for experienced investors and contractors ready to capitalize on Hot Springs booming rental market. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own income-producing real estate in one of Arkansas's hottest tourism markets. Newer roof and tons of potential here! Listing broker owns the subject property. Listing broker does not provide buyer or seller representation in the State of Arkansas.

18. 2025-10-02
    historical
19. 2025-04-08
    listed $62,500 New Listing
20. 2025-04-01
    historical
21. 2025-03-07
    price $65,000
22. 2025-03-07
    price $65,000
23. 2025-01-10
    price $75,000
24. 2024-12-22
    price $75,000
25. 2024-10-31
    price $85,000
26. 2024-10-30
    price $85,000
27. 2024-09-06
    listed $97,500 New Listing
28. 2024-07-09
    historical
29. 2024-04-23
    price $79,500
30. 2024-04-22
    price $79,500
31. 2024-02-21
    listed $85,000 New Listing
32. 2014-10-09
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $385 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $385 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$385
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,229
• − Management: −$2,229
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $18,065
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,336
• After-tax cash flow: $13,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hot Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0507890
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $28,817
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8746
• State rank: #195 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• City population: 76,414
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 28,937
• Household income: $53,514
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 961.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.75%
• Current HPI: 317.2542
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+57.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Listed $55,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-04-08 Listed $62,500 CARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $65,000 CARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $65,000 HSBOR
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $75,000 HSBOR
• 2024-12-22 Price Changed $75,000 CARMLS
• 2024-10-31 Price Changed $85,000 CARMLS
• 2024-10-30 Price Changed $85,000 HSBOR
• 2024-09-06 Listed $97,500 CARMLS
• 2024-07-09 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-04-23 Price Changed $79,500 CARMLS
• 2024-04-22 Price Changed $79,500 HSBOR
• 2024-02-21 Listed $85,000 CARMLS
• 2014-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $385 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.