551 Timbercrest Cir SE · Bolivia, NC 28422

$237,850

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,807 sqft · Townhouse · 211 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2,570 sqft lot 2-car garage $132/sqft · 11% below area Est $267k · 11% under $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* MOVE-IN READY * Experience coastal modern living at Autumn Trail in this brand new 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome, conveniently located 15-20 minutes from Oak Island and Holden Beach, with easy access to the historic waterfront town of Southport. Designed with versatility in mind, the open-concept floor plan features a desirable first-floor primary suite with high ceilings, a walk-in closet, and a private bath with quartz countertops and a 5-foot glass-enclosed shower. The kitchen is thoughtfully finished with granite countertops, soft-close cabinetry, crown and cap trim on the cabinets, a ceramic tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Stylish backsplash
• Granite counters

Tags

• BACK PATIO
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BRAND-NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• STYLISH BACKSPLASH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $238k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $238k).
• Recommended offer: $209k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.7% in Bolivia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#549 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Williamson Elem (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 502 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); South Brunswick High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,172 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 784 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,795/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,308 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.72%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,485
• List price: $237,850
• Delta: -11.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
545 Timbercrest Cir SE	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,807 (0%)	0mo	$247,850	$137	99
2060 Cypress Hill Dr Lot 279	0.90mi	4/2.0	1,774 (-2%)	1mo	$339,999	$192	59
2124 Cypress Hill Dr SE Lot 86	0.91mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,881 (+4%)	1mo	$360,140	$191	50
401 Blossom Tree Ln SE	1.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (-5%)	0mo	$429,900	$251	49
759 Hollybriar Loop Rd SE	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,198 (+22%)	3mo	$550,000	$250	48
432 Eden Dr SW	1.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,895 (+5%)	2mo	$349,900	$185	48
539 Long Meadow Dr SE	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,104 (+16%)	0mo	$585,000	$278	47
633 Ashbury Dr SE	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,196 (+22%)	2mo	$575,000	$262	42
2071 Cypress Hill Dr SE Lot 14	0.92mi	4/2.5	2,200 (+22%)	1mo	$365,999	$166	39
526 Silky Oak Dr SE Lot 260	0.87mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (-10%)	3mo	$341,640	$211	38
2084 Cypress Hill Dr SE Lot 273	0.89mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,518 (-16%)	2mo	$296,250	$195	34
369 Broad Leaf Ln SE	1.30mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,086 (+15%)	2mo	$490,000	$235	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-7,618
• Equity at exit: $35,464

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $33,439
• Equity at exit: $20,565

Cash invested: $66,598 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 78.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $260,850 ($144/sqft)
• Median days on market: 120 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28422

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 784
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,247
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$297 /mo · $3,568/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,182

Max offer price $237,850

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $648	-5% $566	+0% $484	+5% $402	+10% $320
Rent	-10% $263	-5% $374	+0% $484	+5% $594	+10% $705
Rate	-1.0pp $604	-0.5pp $545	base $484	+0.5pp $422	+1.0pp $360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,462
• Closing costs: $7,136
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 Creekway Cir SE Bolivia, NC	3.0	2.5	2101	$2,350	$1.12	6d	1	0.18mi
514 Silky Oak Dr SE Bolivia, NC	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,400	$1.44	119d	1	0.89mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Autumn Trail
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $960 (approximately $80/month)Association amenities: Other

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage2 total on-site parking spaces
• Utilities: Public waterSewer connectedWater connected
• Home design: TownhouseTwo-storyEntry level: 1New constructionHas a view
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as new construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenDishwasherMicrowaveGarbage disposal
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating and cooling)Electric heating
• Interior features: Master suite on the main levelWalk-in closet(s)High ceilingsPantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric water heater

HOA detail $80/mo · $960/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $237,850 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $237,850 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $237,850 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $237,850 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $237,850 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $237,850 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $237,850 Active 205 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $237,850 Active 204 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $237,850 Active 203 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $237,850 Active 202 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $237,850 Active 201 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $237,850 Active 200 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $237,850 Active 199 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $237,850 Active 198 DOM
15. 2026-09-06
    days on market $237,850 Active 192 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $237,850 Active 191 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $237,850 Active 190 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $237,850 Active 187 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $237,850 Active 186 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $237,850 Active 185 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $237,850 Active 184 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $237,850 Active 183 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $237,850 Active 181 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $237,850 Active 180 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $237,850 Active 179 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $237,850 Active 178 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $237,850 Active 177 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $237,850 Active 176 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $237,850 Active 175 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $237,850 Active 174 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $237,850 Active 173 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $237,850 Active 172 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $237,850 Active 171 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $237,850 Active 170 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $237,850 Active 169 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $237,850 Active 168 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $237,850 Active 167 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $237,850 Active 166 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $237,850 Active 165 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $237,850 Active 164 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $237,850 Active 163 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $237,850 Active 162 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $237,850 Active 161 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $237,850 Active 160 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $237,850 Active 159 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $237,850 Active 156 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $237,850 Active 154 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $237,850 Active 152 DOM
49. 2026-07-25
    days on market $237,850 Active 150 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $237,850 Active 149 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,568
• − Insurance: −$1,189
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,683
• − Management: −$2,683
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$6,919
• Taxable income: $2,211
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$531
• After-tax cash flow: $5,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new townhouse is move-in ready with excellent condition and no visible repairs needed. It offers a high-end finish with granite countertops and a spacious floor plan, making it ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in appearance ↑
• Both Lighting — Modern lighting can improve the ambiance and increase value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virginia Williamson Elem D NC #417/1,410 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Cedar Grove Middle F NC #305/475 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High South Brunswick High C+ NC #216/535 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Bolivia

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #20206

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 152,111 people
• City population: 10,059
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,059
• Household income: $69,412
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own

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Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.19%
• Current HPI: 141.1956
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Autumn Trail
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $960 (approximately $80/month)Association amenities: Other

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage2 total on-site parking spaces
• Utilities: Public waterSewer connectedWater connected
• Home design: TownhouseTwo-storyEntry level: 1New constructionHas a view
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as new construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenDishwasherMicrowaveGarbage disposal
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating and cooling)Electric heating
• Interior features: Master suite on the main levelWalk-in closet(s)High ceilingsPantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric water heater

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $262,850 Hive MLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $297,850 Hive MLS