412 Blair Ave · Newport News, VA 23607

$174,500

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 206 Days on market

Built 1920 6,098 sqft lot Est $326k · 46% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great, Colonial style home with lots of natural charm. Could be a great rehab project. 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a screened porch and backyard deck are just a few of the homes features. Located close to local parks with water views, local museums, NN Shipyard, and the interstate. Inquire today!

Key facts

• Colonial style home
• Water views
• Screened porch

Tags

• COLONIAL STYLE HOME
• SCREENED PORCH
• BACKYARD DECK
• WATER VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: L.F. Palmer Elementary (math 24% / reading 42%, grade F, #986 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 433 students, 89% FRL); Heritage High (math 49% / reading 67%, grade C, #262 of 319 statewide, top 82%, 1,111 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 55% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $135k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.59%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $326,112
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
65 Maple Ave	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,822 (-4%)	7mo	$313,000	$172	78
114 Maple Ave	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,900 (+0%)	11mo	$299,900	$158	78
227 Blair Ave	0.31mi	4/2.5	1,758 (-7%)	3mo	$195,000	$111	71
65 Locust Ave	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,830 (-4%)	10mo	$299,999	$164	68
712 Blair Ave	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,150 (+13%)	1mo	$460,000	$214	66
57 Locust Ave	0.34mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,809 (-5%)	11mo	$315,000	$174	60
2507 Parish Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,875 (-1%)	4mo	$112,000	$60	56
1305 Chesapeake Ave	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,944 (+2%)	11mo	$385,000	$198	54
1329 22nd St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,759 (-7%)	3mo	$120,000	$68	50
319 Greenbriar Ave	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,753 (-8%)	6mo	$309,000	$176	46
1326 23rd St	0.62mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,100 (+11%)	7mo	$350,000	$167	42
385 Sampson Ave	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,150 (+13%)	10mo	$395,500	$184	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.84% appreciation · 2.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $20,617
• Equity at exit: $43,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $74,921
• Equity at exit: $46,791

Cash invested: $48,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23607

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,232 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$915
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,155/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,583

Max offer price $174,500

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $611	-5% $562	+0% $512	+5% $463	+10% $414
Rent	-10% $336	-5% $424	+0% $512	+5% $601	+10% $689
Rate	-1.0pp $600	-0.5pp $557	base $512	+0.5pp $467	+1.0pp $421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,625
• Closing costs: $5,235
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40 Buxton Ave Unit C Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	1750	$1,795	$1.03	44d	1	0.18mi
729 Chesapeake Ave Hampton, VA	4.0	3.0	2239	$2,975	$1.33	3d	1	0.26mi
321 Pine Ave Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1349	$1,990	$1.48	24d	1	0.41mi
327 Locust Ave Hampton, VA	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	44d	1	0.55mi
1332 29th St Newport News, VA	5.0	2.0	1553	$2,500	$1.61	44d	1	0.76mi
1242 26th St Newport News, VA	3.0	4.0	1704	$2,400	$1.41	4d	1	0.77mi
1216 21st St Newport News, VA	3.0	3.5	1446	$1,700	$1.18	24d	1	0.77mi
1222 29th St Newport News, VA	5.0	3.0	1563	$2,950	$1.89	2d	1	0.89mi
1227 31st St Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,495	$1.66	2d	1	0.94mi
1110 21st St Newport News, VA	4.0	2.0	1613	$1,850	$1.15	44d	1	0.95mi
130 Chancellor Rd Hampton, VA	4.0	1.0	2000	$1,995	$1.00	5d	1	1.02mi
1035 23rd St Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,600	$1.16	44d	1	1.06mi
1044 26th St Newport News, VA	5.0	2.0	1500	$2,450	$1.63	5d	1	1.06mi
1034 26th St Newport News, VA	4.0	2.0	1579	$1,600	$1.01	44d	1	1.09mi
1020 23rd St Newport News, VA	4.0	3.0	1710	$2,195	$1.28	44d	1	1.09mi
100 Chesterfield Rd Hampton, VA	3.0	1.5	1742	$2,200	$1.26	5d	1	1.11mi
1124 33rd St Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	1386	$1,600	$1.15	24d	1	1.13mi
130 Pocahontas Pl Hampton, VA	3.0	1.0	1415	$1,695	$1.20	44d	1	1.21mi
927 11th St Newport News, VA	4.0	4.0	2500	$1,200	$0.48	8d	1	1.23mi
707 Pennsylvania Ave Hampton, VA	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,800	$1.31	24d	1	1.26mi
731 Childs Ave Hampton, VA	5.0	3.0	2305	$2,750	$1.19	15d	1	1.27mi
2102 Marshall Ave Newport News, VA	4.0	2.0	1780	$1,500	$0.84	44d	1	1.38mi
2104 Marshall Ave Newport News, VA	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,200	$1.40	17d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-11
   status Active
3. 2026-03-05
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-02-25
   status Active
5. 2026-01-16
   status Under Contract
6. 2025-12-26
   status Active
7. 2025-12-12
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2025-10-08
   status Active
9. 2025-08-29
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2025-07-29
    status Active
11. 2025-07-14
    status Under Contract
12. 2025-07-11
    price $174,500
13. 2025-07-03
    price $175,000
14. 2025-06-24
    listed $200,000 Active
15. 2003-11-25
    soldstatus $135,000
16. 1983-03-18
    soldstatus $39,000
17. 1983-02-01
    soldstatus $39,000
18. 1966-11-01
    soldstatus $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,155 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,155 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 46% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,775
• − Property taxes: −$3,155
• − Insurance: −$872
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,143
• − Management: −$2,143
• − Depreciation: −$5,076
• Taxable income: $3,618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$868
• After-tax cash flow: $5,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newport News City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102640
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,644
• Composite: 37.7/100
• National rank: #4360
• State rank: #112 of 131 in VA

Livability — Newport News

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #4018

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newport News, VA
• County: Newport News City · 178,950 people
• City population: 178,950
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 23,096
• Household income: $42,334
• Rent vs Own: 69.5% rent · 30.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2008.0

Population outlook (Newport News County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 181,076 people
• By 2030: 179,683 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 174,649 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 167,407 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 147,597 · -18.5%
• By 2100: 122,144 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Newport News

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.8) · D 63.7% · R 34.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 28.7pp · 2024: 28.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.8 2020: D+32.9 2016: D+25.4 2012: D+30.0 2008: D+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.84%
• Current HPI: 312.4039
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.91%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1192.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-03-11 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2026-03-05 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2026-01-16 Pending — REINMLS
• 2025-12-26 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2025-12-12 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2025-10-08 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2025-08-29 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2025-07-29 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2025-07-14 Pending — REINMLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $174,500 REINMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $175,000 REINMLS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $200,000 REINMLS
• 2003-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 1983-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1983-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1966-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,155 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.