19690 N Hwy 99 #27 · Lodi, CA 95220

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

Built 1972 $101/sqft · 14% above area Est $128k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated spacious home in Arbor Mobile Home Park an all ages community. Featuring a large living room, roomy kitchen and covered patio. Flooring is hardwood all throughout the home with new central heating/cooling that was replaced last year. Includes gas stove, built-in oven, and carport for two cars. Located around the corner from the community clubhouse, pool, basketball court, and guest parking. Easy access to Hwy 99.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Roomy kitchen
• Large living room

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• ROOMY KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• CENTRAL HEATING COOLING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $776 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 2.9% in Lodi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#730 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $131,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.93%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,500
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 13.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19690 N Hwy 99 #27	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$130,000	$90	100
19690 Highway 99 #147	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	14mo	$110,000	$76	86
19690 N Highway 99 #26	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	3mo	$140,000	$91	84
19690 N Highway 99 #8	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	0mo	$145,000	$108	83
19690 N Hwy 99 #89	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,439 (-0%)	14mo	$100,000	$69	80
19690 N Hwy 99 #110	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	2mo	$124,000	$81	77
19690 N Hwy 99 #143	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	13mo	$130,000	$97	76
19690 N Highway 99 #170	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	24mo	$100,000	$69	72
19690 N Hwy 99 #39	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	24mo	$181,000	$135	69
19690 N Highway 99 #55	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+12%)	15mo	$176,000	$109	66
19690 N Highway 99 #44	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,228 (-15%)	22mo	$164,900	$134	57
19690 N Hwy 99 #3	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	21mo	$55,000	$44	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $25,949
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $86,359
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95220

• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $776

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $876	-5% $826	+0% $776	+5% $726	+10% $676
Rent	-10% $598	-5% $687	+0% $776	+5% $865	+10% $954
Rate	-1.0pp $849	-0.5pp $813	base $776	+0.5pp $738	+1.0pp $700

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 Sonora Ave Lodi, CA	3.0	1.0	1032	$2,149	$2.08	4d	1	1.39mi
15 Forrest Ave Lodi, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	45d	1	1.45mi

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $7,444
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,787
• After-tax cash flow: $7,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lodi

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #730
• US rank: #21523

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 78,944
• Population (ZIP): 7,958

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 22% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -277.06%
• Current HPI: 334.006
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B