2904 Magnolia Dr · San Juan, TX 78589

$330,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,774 sqft · Land · 85 Days on market

Built 2025 7,186 sqft lot $186/sqft · 35% above area Est $245k · 35% over $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream home in San Juan, Texas! Nestled in a highly sought-after neighborhood," Plantation Heights". This stunning new construction offers the perfect blend of modern elegance and comfortable living. As you step inside, you’ll be greeted by high and decorative ceilings that add a touch of sophistication to the spacious living areas. This home features 4 bedrooms and 3.5 luxurious bathrooms, providing ample space for your family. The master suite boasts a walk-in closet and an in-suite bathroom with high-end finishes. Energy efficiency is a priority in this home, with spray foam ensuring comfort and reduced utility costs year-round. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this exquisite property your own!

Key facts

• New construction
• Walk-in closet
• In-suite bathroom

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• HIGH AND DECORATIVE CEILINGS
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• IN-SUITE BATHROOM
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $273,944 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.66%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,143
• List price: $330,000
• Delta: 34.62%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-45,454
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-29,555
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,739 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,662/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,578

Max offer price $330,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2917 Arboledas Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$3,260	$1.77	14d	1	0.10mi
1606 S Kumquat St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,350	$0.91	23d	1	0.81mi
1606 Kumquat Ave Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,398	$0.95	43d	1	0.93mi
1305 James Cir Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,550	$1.02	23d	1	1.17mi
2302 San Pascual St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,800	$1.40	43d	1	1.19mi
4000 S Las Nubes Pharr, TX	3.0	2.5	1498	$2,000	$1.34	43d	1	1.35mi
4000 S Las Nubes Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$2,000	$1.29	19d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $330,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $330,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $330,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $330,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $330,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    price $330,000 749-char remark

    Show marketing remark (749 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home in San Juan, Texas! Nestled in a highly sought-after neighborhood," Plantation Heights". This stunning new construction offers the perfect blend of modern elegance and comfortable living. As you step inside, you’ll be greeted by high and decorative ceilings that add a touch of sophistication to the spacious living areas. This home features 4 bedrooms and 3.5 luxurious bathrooms, providing ample space for your family. The master suite boasts a walk-in closet and an in-suite bathroom with high-end finishes. Energy efficiency is a priority in this home, with spray foam ensuring comfort and reduced utility costs year-round. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this exquisite property your own!

17. 2026-03-25
    listed $340,000 Active 749-char remark

    Show marketing remark (749 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home in San Juan, Texas! Nestled in a highly sought-after neighborhood," Plantation Heights". This stunning new construction offers the perfect blend of modern elegance and comfortable living. As you step inside, you’ll be greeted by high and decorative ceilings that add a touch of sophistication to the spacious living areas. This home features 4 bedrooms and 3.5 luxurious bathrooms, providing ample space for your family. The master suite boasts a walk-in closet and an in-suite bathroom with high-end finishes. Energy efficiency is a priority in this home, with spray foam ensuring comfort and reduced utility costs year-round. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this exquisite property your own!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,662 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,039 · $503/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,377/yr (+$365/mo · 263.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$1,662
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,630
• − Management: −$2,630
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$4,143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$994
• After-tax cash flow: $2,526/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• City population: 34,370
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $330,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $340,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+27.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,662 · +27.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.