14769 Hill Vista Ct · Jones Valley, CA 96003

$89,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 144 Days on market

Built 2003 0.25 ac lot Est $155k · 42% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming mobile home located just minutes from the lake, offering a great opportunity to make it your own. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on approximately ¼ acre and features a functional layout with plenty of potential. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway or investment property, this property is ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 2003
• Listed 143 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking; Off-street parking
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Mobile home
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Concrete skirting; Block and pier foundation; Built as a mobile home
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet flooring
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Range and oven included; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $605 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.99%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,232
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22113 Meadow Vista Way	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,068 (+1%)	0mo	$67,500	$63	95
14780 Bollibokka Way	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,092 (+3%)	14mo	$160,000	$147	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $29,337
• Equity at exit: $13,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.92×
• Total profit: $98,216
• Equity at exit: $7,738

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,601/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $605

Break-even live

Break-even rent $916

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $656	-5% $631	+0% $605	+5% $580	+10% $555
Rent	-10% $472	-5% $539	+0% $605	+5% $672	+10% $738
Rate	-1.0pp $650	-0.5pp $628	base $605	+0.5pp $582	+1.0pp $559

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,500 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,500 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,500 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,500 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,500 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,500 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,500 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $89,500 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,700 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,700 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,700 Active 126 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,700 Active 125 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,700 Active 124 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    price $110,700
19. 2026-02-25
    price $116,850
20. 2026-01-27
    listed $123,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,601 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,601 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 40 unhealthy d/yr today · 48 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$2,601
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,615
• − Management: −$1,615
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $6,289
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,509
• After-tax cash flow: $5,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jones Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jones Valley, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $110,700 SAOR
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $116,850 SAOR
• 2026-01-27 Listed $123,000 SAOR

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,601 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.