18910 Bumpy Rd · Alta Sierra, CA 95949

$314,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,182 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1952 1.02 ac lot Est $462k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Single-level fixer with great upside in the Oaks and natural setting Grass Valley, just minutes from convenient Highway 49 access and with paved access. This approximately 1,100+ sq ft two-bedroom, one-bath home offers a functional floor plan with living room, dining area, and kitchen plus a dedicated laundry space, all on one level for easy living. Interior features include wood floors, dual pane windows, a composition roof, and a water softener, with additional storage available in the sub-area and a detached storage shed for tools, toys, or hobby space. The property is serviced by a well, septic, and propane, giving you more independence and control over utilities, and the usable lot is

Key facts

• Wood floors
• Paved access
• Natural setting

Tags

• NATURAL SETTING
• PAVED ACCESS
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY SPACE
• WOOD FLOORS
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property marketed as residential on a 1.02-acre parcel; Located on a corner lot at 18910 Bumpy Rd, Grass Valley, CA
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway and sidewalks
• Utilities: 220-volt electric service; Well water; Septic with pump; No irrigation system
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One story; Built in 1952; Fixer condition
• Construction: Composition roof; Established foundation (partial basement)
• Exterior features: Wire fencing; Storage building and outbuilding; Irregular-shaped lot; No pool or spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Hood over range; Garbage disposal; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling with ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Tile bath with tub and window; Front porch and covered patio; Partial basement (approximately 200 sq ft); Dual-pane partial windows; Seven total rooms including living room with view and workshop
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside the house

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cottage Hill Elementary (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #671 of 1,571 statewide, top 44%, 455 students, 32% FRL); Magnolia Intermediate (math 24% / reading 51%, grade F, #166 of 498 statewide, top 34%, 379 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 256 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,882 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.70%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $462,162
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19120 Cherry Creek Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,088 (-8%)	7mo	$425,000	$391	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-24,498
• Equity at exit: $46,953

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $12,401
• Equity at exit: $27,227

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95949

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,879 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $873/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,349

Max offer price $314,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $597	-5% $508	+0% $419	+5% $330	+10% $241
Rent	-10% $192	-5% $305	+0% $419	+5% $533	+10% $646
Rate	-1.0pp $578	-0.5pp $499	base $419	+0.5pp $337	+1.0pp $254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11292 Old Pond Ln Grass Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1001	$2,450	$2.45	14d	1	1.24mi
17434 Virginia Way Grass Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1226	$2,700	$2.20	25d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $314,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $314,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $314,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $314,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $314,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $314,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $314,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $314,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $314,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $314,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,393 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,520/yr (+$127/mo · 174.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,546
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$873
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,764
• − Management: −$2,764
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$55
• After-tax cash flow: $5,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,552
• Household income: $98,181
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.41%
• Current HPI: 230.2373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $873 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.