40839 Mostyn Hill Dr · Magnolia, TX 77354

$233,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2019 4,578 sqft lot $154/sqft · 14% below area Est $272k · 14% under $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into 40839 Mostyn Hill Dr, recently updated with fresh exterior paint and partial flooring replacement. The kitchen features all stainless steel appliances, an accent backsplash, and a functional island. The primary bathroom includes double sinks. Exterior amenities contain a covered patio and a fully fenced backyard for outdoor enjoyment. Don't miss this opportunity to make this house your new home. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• Functional island
• Covered patio
• Accent backsplash

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ACCENT BACKSPLASH
• FUNCTIONAL ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $233k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (26.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,317 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.53%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,940
• List price: $233,000
• Delta: -14.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40635 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,479 (-2%)	6mo	$267,990	$181	84
12975 Daniel Springs Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,479 (-2%)	4mo	$267,990	$181	84
13082 Sarah Springs Way	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+0%)	5mo	$244,990	$161	84
12759 Dina Springs Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,597 (+6%)	1mo	$268,990	$168	82
40723 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+0%)	6mo	$252,990	$167	81
13070 Sarah Springs Way	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+0%)	8mo	$239,990	$158	81
12739 Dina Springs Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+6%)	6mo	$267,990	$167	80
40769 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+0%)	11mo	$239,990	$158	75
40608 Pessi Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+6%)	8mo	$259,990	$162	75
40494 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+9%)	6mo	$269,000	$164	73
40784 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,598 (+6%)	8mo	$264,990	$166	62
40656 Pessi Rd	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+11%)	8mo	$249,990	$149	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $99,136
• Equity at exit: $209,905

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $300,387
• Equity at exit: $452,668

Cash invested: $65,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,066 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,222
• Tax from tax record: −$601 /mo · $7,208/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,515

Max offer price $170,317

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,250
• Closing costs: $6,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40700 Pessi Rd Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,100	$1.69	44d	1	0.24mi
4255 Magnolia Village Dr Unit 2228 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,792	$1.58	3d	1	1.05mi
4255 Magnolia Village Dr Unit 4292 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,824	$1.61	10d	1	1.05mi
4225 Magnolia Village Dr Magnolia, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$1,992	$2.00	2d	31	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $233,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $233,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $237,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $237,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $237,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $237,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $237,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    status $237,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    price $237,000 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    Step into 40839 Mostyn Hill Dr, recently updated with fresh exterior paint and partial flooring replacement. The kitchen features all stainless steel appliances, an accent backsplash, and a functional island. The primary bathroom includes double sinks. Exterior amenities contain a covered patio and a fully fenced backyard for outdoor enjoyment. Don't miss this opportunity to make this house your new home. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

15. 2026-04-23
    price $244,000 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    Step into 40839 Mostyn Hill Dr, recently updated with fresh exterior paint and partial flooring replacement. The kitchen features all stainless steel appliances, an accent backsplash, and a functional island. The primary bathroom includes double sinks. Exterior amenities contain a covered patio and a fully fenced backyard for outdoor enjoyment. Don't miss this opportunity to make this house your new home. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

16. 2026-04-13
    listed $247,000 Active 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    Step into 40839 Mostyn Hill Dr, recently updated with fresh exterior paint and partial flooring replacement. The kitchen features all stainless steel appliances, an accent backsplash, and a functional island. The primary bathroom includes double sinks. Exterior amenities contain a covered patio and a fully fenced backyard for outdoor enjoyment. Don't miss this opportunity to make this house your new home. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

17. 2026-04-01
    soldstatus
18. 2020-03-27
    soldstatus Sold 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Come home to MOSTYN SPRINGS! Discover the NEW construction opportunities by Gray Point Homes!! Has solid surfaces throughout entry/extended entry/family/kitchen/breakfast area, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite kitchen countertops, Upgraded Brick/Stone elevation, Extended Covered Patio & zoned to Magnolia School District!

19. 2020-03-07
    status Pending 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Come home to MOSTYN SPRINGS! Discover the NEW construction opportunities by Gray Point Homes!! Has solid surfaces throughout entry/extended entry/family/kitchen/breakfast area, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite kitchen countertops, Upgraded Brick/Stone elevation, Extended Covered Patio & zoned to Magnolia School District!

20. 2020-03-06
    price $204,990 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Come home to MOSTYN SPRINGS! Discover the NEW construction opportunities by Gray Point Homes!! Has solid surfaces throughout entry/extended entry/family/kitchen/breakfast area, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite kitchen countertops, Upgraded Brick/Stone elevation, Extended Covered Patio & zoned to Magnolia School District!

21. 2020-03-02
    price $205,990 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Come home to MOSTYN SPRINGS! Discover the NEW construction opportunities by Gray Point Homes!! Has solid surfaces throughout entry/extended entry/family/kitchen/breakfast area, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite kitchen countertops, Upgraded Brick/Stone elevation, Extended Covered Patio & zoned to Magnolia School District!

22. 2020-02-26
    price $187,990 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Come home to MOSTYN SPRINGS! Discover the NEW construction opportunities by Gray Point Homes!! Has solid surfaces throughout entry/extended entry/family/kitchen/breakfast area, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite kitchen countertops, Upgraded Brick/Stone elevation, Extended Covered Patio & zoned to Magnolia School District!

23. 2020-02-24
    price $210,632 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Come home to MOSTYN SPRINGS! Discover the NEW construction opportunities by Gray Point Homes!! Has solid surfaces throughout entry/extended entry/family/kitchen/breakfast area, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite kitchen countertops, Upgraded Brick/Stone elevation, Extended Covered Patio & zoned to Magnolia School District!

24. 2020-02-06
    price $205,990 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Come home to MOSTYN SPRINGS! Discover the NEW construction opportunities by Gray Point Homes!! Has solid surfaces throughout entry/extended entry/family/kitchen/breakfast area, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite kitchen countertops, Upgraded Brick/Stone elevation, Extended Covered Patio & zoned to Magnolia School District!

25. 2020-01-02
    price $204,990 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Come home to MOSTYN SPRINGS! Discover the NEW construction opportunities by Gray Point Homes!! Has solid surfaces throughout entry/extended entry/family/kitchen/breakfast area, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite kitchen countertops, Upgraded Brick/Stone elevation, Extended Covered Patio & zoned to Magnolia School District!

26. 2019-12-18
    price $199,990 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Come home to MOSTYN SPRINGS! Discover the NEW construction opportunities by Gray Point Homes!! Has solid surfaces throughout entry/extended entry/family/kitchen/breakfast area, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite kitchen countertops, Upgraded Brick/Stone elevation, Extended Covered Patio & zoned to Magnolia School District!

27. 2019-11-25
    historical
28. 2019-11-21
    listed $197,990 Active
29. 2019-11-15
    price $194,990 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Come home to MOSTYN SPRINGS! Discover the NEW construction opportunities by Gray Point Homes!! Has solid surfaces throughout entry/extended entry/family/kitchen/breakfast area, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite kitchen countertops, Upgraded Brick/Stone elevation, Extended Covered Patio & zoned to Magnolia School District!

30. 2019-11-14
    price $189,990 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Come home to MOSTYN SPRINGS! Discover the NEW construction opportunities by Gray Point Homes!! Has solid surfaces throughout entry/extended entry/family/kitchen/breakfast area, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite kitchen countertops, Upgraded Brick/Stone elevation, Extended Covered Patio & zoned to Magnolia School District!

31. 2019-11-11
    listed $197,990 Active 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Come home to MOSTYN SPRINGS! Discover the NEW construction opportunities by Gray Point Homes!! Has solid surfaces throughout entry/extended entry/family/kitchen/breakfast area, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite kitchen countertops, Upgraded Brick/Stone elevation, Extended Covered Patio & zoned to Magnolia School District!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,208 · $601/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,208 · $601/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,052
• − Property taxes: −$7,208
• − Insurance: −$1,165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,983
• − Management: −$1,983
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$6,778
• Taxable loss: −$8,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,965
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+19.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $237,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $244,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $247,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-03-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-03-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-03-06 Price Changed $204,990 HARMLS
• 2020-03-02 Price Changed $205,990 HARMLS
• 2020-02-26 Price Changed $187,990 HARMLS
• 2020-02-24 Price Changed $210,632 HARMLS
• 2020-02-06 Price Changed $205,990 HARMLS
• 2020-01-02 Price Changed $204,990 HARMLS
• 2019-12-18 Price Changed $199,990 HARMLS
• 2019-11-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-11-21 Listed $197,990 HARMLS
• 2019-11-15 Price Changed $194,990 HARMLS
• 2019-11-14 Price Changed $189,990 HARMLS
• 2019-11-11 Listed $197,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+69.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,208 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.