188 Mill St · Trimble, TN 38259

$23,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,155 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 260 Days on market

Built 1933 8,842 sqft lot $21/sqft · 79% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

188 Mill St sits at a living square footage of 1,155, coming with 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. The house was built in 1933, and is vacant. This perfect addition to your portfolio has a strong management history with the leading resource in property management for the area. For P/L, cash flows, maintenance logs, and to view this property, give Seth Rodgers a call or email today at 731-618-7925/ [email protected]

Key facts

• 8,842 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1933

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $24k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $630 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($989 rent vs $24k).
• Recommended offer: $21k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#350 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Dyer County (rural): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #16 of 139 in TN (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Dyer County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $165 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $549 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dyer County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 260 days — a 12% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $21,032 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 260 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 113.00%
• DSCR: 6.03
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $112,671
• List price: $23,900
• Delta: -78.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
72 Obion St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,137 (-2%)	21mo	$160,000	$141	56
121 Chester Harris St	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,271 (+10%)	17mo	$147,000	$116	54
210 Obion St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,242 (+8%)	23mo	$120,000	$97	44
91 Johns St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,305 (+13%)	16mo	$180,000	$138	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $36,976
• Equity at exit: $4,316

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.63×
• Total profit: $84,525
• Equity at exit: $3,382

Cash invested: $6,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38259

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $989 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$125
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $192/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $630

Break-even live

Break-even rent $192

Max offer price $23,900

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $644	-5% $637	+0% $630	+5% $623	+10% $617
Rent	-10% $552	-5% $591	+0% $630	+5% $669	+10% $708
Rate	-1.0pp $642	-0.5pp $636	base $630	+0.5pp $624	+1.0pp $618

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,975
• Closing costs: $717
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $23,900 Active 260 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $23,900 Active 259 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $23,900 Active 258 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $23,900 Active 257 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $23,900 Active 256 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $23,900 Active 254 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $23,900 Active 253 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $23,900 Active 250 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $23,900 Active 249 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $23,900 Active 248 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $23,900 Active 247 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $23,900 Active 244 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $23,900 Active 243 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $23,900 Active 242 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $23,900 Active 241 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $23,900 Active 240 DOM
17. 2025-09-27
    listed $23,900 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    188 Mill St sits at a living square footage of 1,155, coming with 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. The house was built in 1933, and is vacant. This perfect addition to your portfolio has a strong management history with the leading resource in property management for the area. For P/L, cash flows, maintenance logs, and to view this property, give Seth Rodgers a call or email today at 731-618-7925/ [email protected]

18. 2017-12-12
    soldstatus $204,750
19. 2017-12-12
    soldstatus $307,900
20. 2010-10-01
    soldstatus $291,900
21. 2009-08-26
    soldstatus $84,131
22. 2007-08-31
    soldstatus $80,000
23. 1997-02-18
    soldstatus $16,041
24. 1995-07-26
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $192 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $192 · $16/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,339
• − Property taxes: −$192
• − Insurance: −$120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$950
• − Management: −$950
• − Depreciation: −$695
• Taxable income: $7,625
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,830
• After-tax cash flow: $5,732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dyer County
• NCES district ID: 4701050
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,865
• Composite: 33.19/100
• National rank: #5536
• State rank: #16 of 139 in TN

Livability — Trimble

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #23039

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trimble, TN
• City population: 682
• Population (ZIP): 682

Population outlook (Dyer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,770 people
• By 2030: 35,863 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 33,989 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 32,124 · -12.6%
• By 2075: 28,702 · -21.9%
• By 2100: 25,745 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dyer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 18.8% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.7pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+55.4 2012: R+44.7 2008: R+37.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.30%
• Current HPI: 85.7214
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+70.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-27 Listed $23,900 CWTAR
• 2017-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $307,900 Public Records
• 2017-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $204,750 Public Records
• 2010-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $291,900 Public Records
• 2009-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $84,131 Public Records
• 2007-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1997-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $16,041 Public Records
• 1995-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $192 · +19.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.