8237 Fallglo Ln · Connerton, FL 34637

$259,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2006 5,487 sqft lot Est $310k · 16% under $270/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained villa in the highly sought-after Groves Golf & Country Club, a premier guard-gated 55+ active adult community in Lutz. Offering 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,332 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this move-in-ready home has been lovingly cared for by its original owner. Enjoy your morning coffee on your beautiful screened-in lanai that overlooks the lush conservation and wildlife. This beauty allows you to live a true maintenance-free lifestyle with exterior painting, roof replacement, lawn care, and shrub trimming all included, allowing you more time to take advantage of the incredible community amenities. Nestled against a pea

Key facts

• Screened in lanai
• 5,487 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GUARD GATED COMMUNITY
• SCREENED IN LANAI
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GENEROUS CABINET STORAGE
• HEATED SALTWATER POOL
• COMMUNITY MOVIE THEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Unfurnished
• Financial info: Other annual assessment present
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly fee $270); Association fee includes cable TV, internet, structure maintenance, grounds maintenance, and security; Community amenities: clubhouse, golf course, park, dog park, tennis courts, sidewalks, street lights, golf carts allowed, deed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Gated community; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Underground utilities; Fire hydrant nearby; Sprinkler meter (reclaimed irrigation available in community)
• Home design: Residential attached villa; One-story; Facing east; Gated community
• Construction: Brick and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block and slab foundation; Built as a single-level home
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Screened porch; Sliding doors; Private mailbox; Sprinkler meter; Mature landscaping with oak trees and other trees; Landscaped lot; Sidewalk; Public-maintained paved asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room / dining room combo; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-273 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (18.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,627 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.51%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,356
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21336 Diamonte Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,318 (-1%)	8mo	$324,000	$246	74
21248 Diamonte Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,318 (-1%)	6mo	$260,000	$197	73
21209 Diamonte Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,306 (-2%)	9mo	$275,000	$211	72
20811 Diamonte Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,452 (+9%)	22mo	$310,000	$213	63
21242 Diamonte Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,310 (-2%)	18mo	$305,000	$233	62
21201 Diamonte Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,306 (-2%)	23mo	$334,905	$256	60
21351 Morning Mist Way	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,403 (+5%)	2mo	$395,000	$282	54
8002 Shaddock Pl	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,470 (+10%)	19mo	$323,750	$220	46
20938 Sunsweet Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,509 (+13%)	10mo	$370,000	$245	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-42,843
• Equity at exit: $56,086

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-43,283
• Equity at exit: $53,398

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,633 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$612 /mo · $7,342/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$270
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,979

Max offer price $211,627

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20191 Sabal Palm Ct Land O' Lakes, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1404	$2,471	$1.76	3d	20	0.80mi
20716 Eustis Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,050	$1.41	2d	1	0.94mi
8710 Preston Woods Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$2,850	$1.69	18d	1	1.22mi
20602 Monza Loop Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1822	$2,500	$1.37	24d	1	1.47mi
8844 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	1.0	1.5	1861	$995	$0.53	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $270 · $3,240/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingsecurity

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 695-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $259,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,342 · $612/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,342 · $612/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$7,342
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,527
• − Management: −$2,527
• − HOA: −$3,240
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$7,463
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,791
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $259,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,342 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.