4164 Hummock Pl · Haines City, FL 33844

$289,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,866 sqft · Land · 31 Days on market

Built 2025 3,794 sqft lot $257/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. BELOW MARKET INTEREST RATES with use of Seller's Preferred Lender. The Tulum is a two-story townhouse that provides a comfortable living experience with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. All bedrooms are located on the second floor, offering privacy and separation from the main living areas. The main floor features a modern kitchen, perfect for cooking and entertaining, along with a spacious living room for relaxation and gatherings. Enjoy outdoor living on the charming lanai, and benefit from the convenience of a 2-car garage for ample storage and easy access. Step outside your front door and enjoy all that Grove at Crosswinds has to offer. This welcoming Haines City community

Key facts

• Two story townhouse
• Convenient access
• Pool and playground

Tags

• TWO STORY TOWNHOUSE
• MODERN KITCHEN
• CHARMING LANAI
• POOL AND PLAYGROUND
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-332 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 615 students, 66% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $226,452 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.90%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-72,142
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-105,890
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,265 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,667/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$257
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,685

Max offer price $231,368

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-168	-5% $-250	+0% $-332	+5% $-414	+10% $-496
Rent	-10% $-511	-5% $-421	+0% $-332	+5% $-242	+10% $-153
Rate	-1.0pp $-186	-0.5pp $-258	base $-332	+0.5pp $-407	+1.0pp $-483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4156 Hummock Pl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,850	$1.20	25d	1	0.04mi
3754 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1720	$1,800	$1.05	25d	1	0.10mi
4757 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2451	$2,050	$0.84	25d	1	0.43mi
4813 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	25d	1	0.43mi
4770 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,000	$0.95	25d	1	0.46mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	25d	1	0.47mi
5177 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,920	$1.38	4d	1	0.50mi
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,099	$1.15	25d	1	0.50mi
5161 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,100	$0.84	25d	1	0.50mi
4034 Old Mill Rd Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	5d	1	0.51mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,900	$1.38	5d	1	0.51mi
3874 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,130	$1.14	5d	1	0.52mi
5153 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	16d	1	0.52mi
3898 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	25d	1	0.54mi
3910 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,600	$1.23	25d	1	0.56mi
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,500	$1.36	25d	1	0.65mi
914 Princess Sabal Pt Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,775	$1.06	16d	1	0.75mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	25d	1	0.89mi
333 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,985	$1.04	13d	1	0.90mi
117 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2099	$2,085	$0.99	25d	1	0.98mi
120 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$2,020	$1.06	15d	1	0.98mi
202 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$1,905	$0.96	13d	1	1.00mi
148 Summerlin Loop Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,850	$1.17	16d	1	1.01mi
167 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$2,020	$1.02	21d	1	1.02mi
1364 Conch Key Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,150	$1.45	5d	1	1.05mi
2203 Pigeon Plum Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1887	$2,190	$1.16	12d	1	1.08mi
1361 Current Pl Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$2,100	$1.29	25d	1	1.12mi
621 Sand Pine Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2040	$2,350	$1.15	12d	1	1.15mi
432 Summer Grove Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,850	$1.44	25d	1	1.16mi
239 Summerlin Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2168	$2,300	$1.06	25d	1	1.18mi
1462 Sea Glass Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2168	$2,200	$1.01	25d	1	1.18mi
1138 Foreshore Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,200	$1.27	25d	1	1.19mi
1276 Tupelo Trl Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1900	$1,895	$1.00	13d	1	1.24mi
1950 Pond Pine Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$1,975	$1.02	25d	1	1.26mi
600 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2267	$2,800	$1.24	12d	1	1.32mi
429 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,990	$1.22	21d	1	1.36mi
1105 Lexington Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2123	$1,995	$0.94	21d	1	1.44mi
299 Bottle Brush Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,300	$1.30	25d	1	1.45mi
425 Hammerstone Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,796	$1.24	15d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $257 · $3,084/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   status Active
3. 2026-03-13
   historical
4. 2026-03-13
   listed $289,999 Active
5. 2026-03-13
   price $289,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,667 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,667 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$2,667
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,174
• − Management: −$2,174
• − HOA: −$3,084
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$9,055
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,173
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $289,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $289,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid