The Woodland Plan · Splendora, TX 77372

$233,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,745 sqft · SingleFamily · 88 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Woodland plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a downstairs primary suite, and an upstairs game room. All bedrooms come equipped with walk-in closets.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 88 days

🏗️ New construction. The $233,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $221,716.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $234k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $212,794 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.88%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,716
• List price: $233,990
• Delta: 5.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13639 Kit Run	0.38mi	4/2.5	1,745 (0%)	0mo	$224,990	$129	82
22743 American Kestrel Ct	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,841 (+6%)	2mo	$204,990	$111	74
22755 American Kestrel Ct	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,841 (+6%)	2mo	$208,242	$113	73
22819 American Kestrel Ct	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,841 (+6%)	1mo	$209,990	$114	69
23516 Skyward Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,796 (+3%)	2mo	$264,990	$148	64
23512 Skyward Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,665 (-5%)	1mo	$248,990	$150	62
23191 Teakwood Hills Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,772 (+2%)	1mo	$264,990	$150	61
13687 Kit Run	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,624 (-7%)	3mo	$224,990	$139	60
13667 Kit Run	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (-11%)	2mo	$234,990	$151	54
23700 Patchouli Terrace Dr	0.72mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+8%)	3mo	$266,990	$141	45
23157 Teakwood Hills Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,539 (-12%)	1mo	$234,990	$153	42
23165 Teakwood Hills Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,489 (-15%)	3mo	$229,990	$154	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-26,415
• Equity at exit: $33,059

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-10,664
• Equity at exit: $19,170

Cash invested: $62,081 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,163
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$277 /mo · $3,326/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,940

Max offer price $221,716

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,429
• Closing costs: $6,651
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $233,990 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $233,990 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $233,990 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $233,990 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $233,990 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $233,990 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $233,990 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $233,990 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $233,990 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $233,990 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $233,990 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $233,990 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $233,990 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $233,990 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-03-22
    listed $233,990 Active 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    The Woodland plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a downstairs primary suite, and an upstairs game room. All bedrooms come equipped with walk-in closets.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,420
• − Property taxes: −$3,326
• − Insurance: −$1,109
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,043
• − Management: −$2,043
• − Depreciation: −$6,450
• Taxable loss: −$1,854
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$445
• After-tax cash flow: $2,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2-story home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Listed $233,990 Zillow