37650 Newal Ave · Zephyrhills, FL 33542

$229,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2004 6,000 sqft lot ↓ 53% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 BEDROOM HOMES OF MERIT, WITH UNFINSHED ADDITION PLUS 2 SCREENED PATIOS AND DOUBLE CARPORT

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Split floor plan
• Kitchen cabinets

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• NEWER ROOF
• AC UNIT
• KITCHEN CABINETS
• UPDATED FLOOR COVERINGS
• CHAIN LINK FENCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,544 sq ft (owner); Building area reported as 1,976 sq ft (public records); Lot about 0.14 acre; Zoning: 00M1
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Homestead exemption indicated
• HOA & community: Street lights in community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; Single-story; Faces north
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed, front, rear and screened porches; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Chain link fence; Mature landscaping; Cleared, landscaped lot within city limits; Paved road with public maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-843/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.7% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Zephyrhills Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 615 students, 81% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $229k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,240 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.31%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,884
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6136 Ridgeway Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-5%)	4mo	$175,000	$162	86
37743 Markland Ave	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+1%)	8mo	$145,000	$126	82
6053 Ridgewood Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-7%)	7mo	$134,000	$127	72
6902 Orlo Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,104 (-3%)	2mo	$75,000	$68	59
6028 Ridgewood Dr	0.22mi	2/1.5	1,008 (-11%)	17mo	$51,500	$51	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-46,598
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-65,744
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,236/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,771

Max offer price $216,596

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37661 Aaralyn Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	0.06mi
6246 Timberly Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,900	$1.39	24d	1	0.08mi
37732 Cecil Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	24d	1	0.09mi
6262 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,700	$1.25	24d	1	0.15mi
6335 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,650	$1.21	20d	1	0.20mi
6195 Daerr Ridge St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,000	$1.44	17d	1	0.34mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,732	$2.02	1d	142	0.43mi
6136 Pina Colada St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	12d	1	0.46mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	24d	1	0.47mi
38300 Henry Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1152	$1,650	$1.43	4d	1	0.60mi
6633 Foxmoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	24d	1	0.62mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	24d	1	0.73mi
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	4d	1	0.76mi
5521 Barbara St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	24d	1	0.81mi
38485 County Road 54 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	24d	1	0.82mi
5441 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,650	$1.63	24d	1	0.90mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	24d	1	0.91mi
38647 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	814	$1,350	$1.66	24d	1	1.00mi
5237 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$1,700	$1.76	24d	1	1.01mi
6773 Branham Mill Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,950	$1.34	24d	1	1.03mi
38719 12th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	1246	$1,400	$1.12	24d	1	1.07mi
37902 7th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,775	$1.97	24d	1	1.07mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	4d	1	1.09mi
5143 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,750	$1.22	24d	1	1.10mi
38112 Townview Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	24d	1	1.11mi
36801 Camelia Ct Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	24d	1	1.14mi
5812 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,100	$1.59	24d	1	1.20mi
38939 North Ave Unit 2 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,300	$1.49	17d	1	1.28mi
5652 18th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,200	$1.23	24d	1	1.31mi
5022 5th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	974	$1,595	$1.64	24d	1	1.35mi
38942 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	1.38mi
4940 4th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	24d	1	1.39mi
5647 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	1.40mi
4812 Coral St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	856	$1,200	$1.40	19d	1	1.42mi
39132 County Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	1.44mi
36321 Stonewood Ln #103 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	987	$1,525	$1.55	24d	1	1.44mi
39132 County Road 54 #2184 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	1.45mi
5542 20th St Unit 1234473P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$3,199	$3.81	3d	1	1.47mi
5532 20th St Unit 1234470P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$7,185	$8.56	2d	1	1.48mi
5914 Willow Ridge Dr #101 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	987	$1,500	$1.52	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $229,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-05-24
    listed $229,000 Active
15. 2022-11-16
    soldstatus $150,000
16. 2007-12-19
    soldstatus $71,000
17. 2007-11-30
    soldstatus $71,000 91-char remark

    Show marketing remark (91 chars)

    2 BEDROOM HOMES OF MERIT, WITH UNFINSHED ADDITION PLUS 2 SCREENED PATIOS AND DOUBLE CARPORT

18. 2007-10-05
    listed $79,900 91-char remark

    Show marketing remark (91 chars)

    2 BEDROOM HOMES OF MERIT, WITH UNFINSHED ADDITION PLUS 2 SCREENED PATIOS AND DOUBLE CARPORT

19. 2006-04-04
    listed $119,000
20. 2005-08-29
    listed $125,000
21. 2004-09-22
    listed $125,000
22. 1995-01-31
    soldstatus $490,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,236 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,901 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$665/yr (+$55/mo · 53.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$1,236
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,615
• − Management: −$1,615
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$4,912
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,179
• After-tax cash flow: $336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-53.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2007-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records
• 2007-11-30 Sold (MLS) $71,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-05 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-04 Listed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-29 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-22 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $490,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,236 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.