2905 Eagle Ave · Medford, NY 11763

$400,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 906 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1963 8,712 sqft lot Est $488k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 Bedroom 1 bath ranch. Good opportunity. Cash or FHA/Conventional Rehab loan. Being sold "AS IS".

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 1963
• Listed 11 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No carport
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; No utilities listed
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Fixer condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; No cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; One-level layout; Scuttle attic; Crawl space basement; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No utilities/appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-691/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $390k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $337k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.5% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#502 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #73 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Elementary School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #1,057 of 2,108 statewide, top 51%, 603 students, 40% FRL); Oregon Middle School (reading 75%, 592 students, 54% FRL); Patchogue-Medford High School (math 89% / reading 67%, grade A-, #577 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 2,443 students, 53% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 76% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 187 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $400k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $336,568 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $488,334
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2203 Knickerbocker Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0	904 (-0%)	11mo	$510,000	$564	81
2710 Connecticut Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0	900 (-1%)	11mo	$410,000	$456	76
2812 Sipp Ave	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	834 (-8%)	4mo	$550,000	$659	67
2812 Kane Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	864 (-5%)	12mo	$630,000	$729	66
2914 Devon Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,025 (+13%)	14mo	$552,000	$539	60
2916 Rhode Island Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+10%)	12mo	$530,000	$530	54
2707 Connecticut Ave	0.31mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+10%)	10mo	$540,000	$540	54
2815 Watch Hill Ave	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,034 (+14%)	22mo	$465,000	$450	53
2602 Fire Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	980 (+8%)	21mo	$445,000	$454	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-68,465
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-64,257
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11763

• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,366 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$452 /mo · $5,426/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,439

Max offer price $389,822

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $169	-5% $56	+0% $-58	+5% $-171	+10% $-284
Rent	-10% $-324	-5% $-191	+0% $-58	+5% $75	+10% $208
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $44	base $-58	+0.5pp $-161	+1.0pp $-267

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1100 Lake Dr Medford, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$3,346	$3.06	0d	10	0.86mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $400,000 Active
3. 2026-04-19
   historical $400,000
4. 2019-05-26
   historical
5. 2019-05-18
   listed $249,000 New
6. 2011-06-17
   soldstatus $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,426 · $452/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,093 · $508/mo
• Expected delta: +$667/yr (+$56/mo · 12.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$5,426
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,231
• − Management: −$3,231
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$7,543
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,810
• After-tax cash flow: $1,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3622470
• Math proficiency: 83% ▲ 27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $75,120
• Composite: 66.81/100
• National rank: #405
• State rank: #73 of 590 in NY

Livability — Medford

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #8793

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Medford, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 29,973
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,973
• Household income: $120,783
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 339.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -531.78%
• Current HPI: 379.1499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+128.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $400,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-19 Coming Soon $400,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-18 Listed $249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,426 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.