15 12th Ave · Lake Lorraine, FL 32579

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,631 sqft · Townhouse public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1983 3,920 sqft lot Est $321k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move in ready and conveniently located near military bases, schools, shopping, and dining, this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers comfort and convenience. The bright interior features abundant natural light, fresh paint, and durable LVP flooring throughout. Major updates include a new roof installed in 2022 and an HVAC system replaced in 2019. The fenced backyard provides privacy and space to relax or entertain. Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Hvac system replaced
• Move in ready
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• FENCED BACKYARD
• NEW ROOF
• HVAC SYSTEM REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Subdivision: PORT DIXIE PATIO HOMES

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; 2 driveway spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric heating controls; Central electric air (AC - Central Elect)
• Home design: Single-story home; Built in 1983; Architectural style: Other; City street frontage and city road access
• Construction: Built in 1983
• Exterior features: Private yard; Rain gutters; Privacy fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first level; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the first level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with shower only and walk-in closet
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Newly painted; Split bedroom layout; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($801/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.3% in Lake Lorraine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#488 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shalimar Elementary School (math 54% / reading 61%, grade C+, #764 of 2,144 statewide, top 36%, 614 students, 63% FRL); Choctawhatchee Senior High School (math 42% / reading 50%, grade D-, #220 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,677 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 36% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 112 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $228k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,617 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.08%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $321,307
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
91 5th St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,452 (-11%)	12mo	$275,000	$189	69
42 7th Ave #127	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,550 (-5%)	0mo	$244,500	$158	68
44 5Th St Unit 138	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,612 (-1%)	11mo	$286,000	$177	65
32 7th Ave #120	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,520 (-7%)	5mo	$300,000	$197	64
43 12th Ave	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,435 (-12%)	8mo	$175,000	$122	63
111 Post Oak Pl	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-10%)	4mo	$295,000	$202	55
285 Shalimar Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,466 (-10%)	11mo	$520,000	$355	41
34 5th Ave Unit A	0.59mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,414 (-13%)	3mo	$220,000	$156	41
221 Shalimar Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,717 (+5%)	20mo	$450,000	$262	39
243 Shalimar Dr	0.65mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,432 (-12%)	24mo	$425,000	$297	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-45,073
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-58,458
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32579

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,544/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,062

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $142	+0% $67	+5% $-8	+10% $-83
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-18	+0% $67	+5% $152	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $134	base $67	+0.5pp $-2	+1.0pp $-72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
89 Spinnaker Ln Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.0	1376	$2,395	$1.74	15d	1	0.26mi
64 7th Ave Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,995	$1.37	45d	1	0.50mi
68 7th Ave Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,995	$1.37	46d	1	0.51mi
100 8th Ave Shalimar, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	932	$1,550	$1.66	45d	1	0.57mi
10 2nd St Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,350	$1.43	15d	1	0.68mi
40 4th Ave #9 Shalimar, FL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,550	$1.41	45d	1	0.72mi
40 11th St Unit K86 Shalimar, FL	2.0	1.5	1216	$1,749	$1.44	45d	1	0.81mi
40 11th St Shalimar, FL	2.0	1.0	1216	$1,549	$1.27	23d	1	0.81mi
116 4th Ave Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,995	$1.14	45d	1	0.85mi
38 11th St #103 Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,750	$1.35	45d	1	0.85mi
27 11th St Shalimar, FL	2.0	1.5	1400	$1,550	$1.11	45d	1	0.89mi
133 4th Ave Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.5	1248	$2,000	$1.60	15d	1	0.90mi
145 4th Ave Shalimar, FL	2.0	2.0	1260	$1,625	$1.29	45d	1	0.92mi
6 Pinehurst Dr Shalimar, FL	4.0	2.0	2124	$2,795	$1.32	45d	1	1.17mi
45 Warwick Dr Shalimar, FL	2.0	2.0	1150	$2,800	$2.43	23d	1	1.26mi
810 Eglin Pkwy Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	3.5	1905	$2,995	$1.57	45d	1	1.26mi
413 Waterway Ln Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	3.0	1350	$1,475	$1.09	45d	1	1.40mi
941 Harrelson St Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1332	$1,895	$1.42	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 444-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $265,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,544 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,200 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$656/yr (+$55/mo · 42.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,544
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$3,788
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$909
• After-tax cash flow: $1,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Lorraine

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #488
• US rank: #8959

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Lorraine, FL
• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 10,775
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,506
• Household income: $104,510
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 271.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.93%
• Current HPI: 281.2637
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+16.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $265,000 ECAR
• 2023-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $228,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,544 · -36.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.