307 N Maria St · Hebbronville, TX 78361

$36,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · SingleFamily · 152 Days on market

Built 1900 8,077 sqft lot $36/sqft · 34% below area Est $55k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home on an oversized lot, featuring classic pier-and-beam construction and plenty of potential with a few updates. A tenant is already in place, making this an ideal opportunity for investors seeking immediate rental income. Conveniently located within walking distance to banks, the post office, and a nearby convenience store, offering everyday ease in a central location.

Key facts

• Oversized lot
• 8,077 sq ft lot
• Built 1900

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• PIER-AND-BEAM CONSTRUCTION
• WALKING DISTANCE TO BANKS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $36,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$54,900) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $36k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $436 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($929 rent vs $36k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,032 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jim Hogg County ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #622 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $252 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $349 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jim Hogg County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 93% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.22%
• DSCR: 3.28
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,900
• List price: $36,500
• Delta: -33.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
501 E Bessie St	0.31mi	2/1.0	912 (-11%)	8mo	$39,000	$43	61
402 E Kohler St	0.18mi	2/2.0	920 (-10%)	14mo	$78,500	$85	59
511 E Gruy	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,125 (+10%)	7mo	$58,217	$52	54
711 Marcos Hinojosa Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	874 (-15%)	8mo	$50,000	$57	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $25,151
• Equity at exit: $8,889

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.96×
• Total profit: $60,898
• Equity at exit: $9,400

Cash invested: $10,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78361

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $929 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$191
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,094/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $436

Break-even live

Break-even rent $377

Max offer price $36,500

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $457	-5% $447	+0% $436	+5% $426	+10% $416
Rent	-10% $363	-5% $400	+0% $436	+5% $473	+10% $510
Rate	-1.0pp $455	-0.5pp $446	base $436	+0.5pp $427	+1.0pp $417

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,125
• Closing costs: $1,095
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $36,500 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $36,500 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $36,500 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $36,500 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $36,500 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $36,500 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $36,500 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $36,500 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $36,500 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $36,500 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $36,500 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $36,500 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $36,500 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $36,500 Active 133 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $36,500 Active 132 DOM
16. 2026-01-26
    listed $36,500 Active 401-char remark

    Show marketing remark (401 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home on an oversized lot, featuring classic pier-and-beam construction and plenty of potential with a few updates. A tenant is already in place, making this an ideal opportunity for investors seeking immediate rental income. Conveniently located within walking distance to banks, the post office, and a nearby convenience store, offering everyday ease in a central location.

17. 2026-01-19
    listed $36,500 Active 401-char remark

    Show marketing remark (401 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home on an oversized lot, featuring classic pier-and-beam construction and plenty of potential with a few updates. A tenant is already in place, making this an ideal opportunity for investors seeking immediate rental income. Conveniently located within walking distance to banks, the post office, and a nearby convenience store, offering everyday ease in a central location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,094 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,094 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 93% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,045
• − Property taxes: −$1,094
• − Insurance: −$182
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$892
• − Management: −$892
• − Depreciation: −$1,062
• Taxable income: $4,983
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,196
• After-tax cash flow: $4,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jim Hogg County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824750
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $35,870
• Composite: 25.69/100
• National rank: #7391
• State rank: #622 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hebbronville

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1032
• US rank: #18361

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hebbronville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,764

Population outlook (Jim Hogg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,023 people
• By 2030: 4,897 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 4,722 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 4,510 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 3,827 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 2,794 · -44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 78% Two or more races 40% White 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 76%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 58% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jim Hogg

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.3) · D 54.0% · R 45.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 47.6pp · 2024: 8.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.3 2020: D+17.9 2016: D+56.9 2012: D+56.7 2008: D+47.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 99.0946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Listed $36,500 LAOR
• 2026-01-19 Listed $36,500 CBMLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,094 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.