The Blue Jay Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$246,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 922 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The efficient layout of the Blue Jay plan features an open concept kitchen, dining, and family room. A convenient pocket office is located at the front of the home separating it from the bedrooms and kitchen/dining area that can be converted into a powder bathroom or additional garage storage space. The three bedrooms and two full baths are located on one side of the home, creating ample room for the spacious family room at the heart of this plan.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 921 days

🏗️ New construction. The $246,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $296,876.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $247k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-194 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 922 days — a 12% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $217,351 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 922 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.81%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,876
• List price: $246,990
• Delta: -16.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40511 Tyto Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,492 (-0%)	0mo	$235,000	$158	87
40530 Tyto Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-2%)	1mo	$274,900	$188	81
40423 Gerygone Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-2%)	9mo	$289,900	$198	77
40731 Barley Straw	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (-2%)	2mo	$264,990	$180	76
15122 Rose Willow Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+5%)	2mo	$279,990	$178	75
40443 Gerygone Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+8%)	6mo	$304,900	$189	69
40762 Barley Straw Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-12%)	2mo	$239,990	$181	65
15219 Black Scoter Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-2%)	7mo	$279,900	$191	57
40418 Winding Way Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+7%)	5mo	$350,000	$218	54
15214 Black Scoter Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+8%)	6mo	$299,900	$186	50
15118 Bank Swallow Pl	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,701 (+13%)	8mo	$308,330	$181	39
15315 Mountain Plover Pl	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,689 (+13%)	1mo	$299,990	$178	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $143,171
• Equity at exit: $267,449

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.06×
• Total profit: $420,210
• Equity at exit: $576,764

Cash invested: $83,125 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,351 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,557
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,453/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,597

Max offer price $268,756

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11	-5% $-92	+0% $-194	+5% $-297	+10% $-399
Rent	-10% $-380	-5% $-287	+0% $-194	+5% $-101	+10% $-9
Rate	-1.0pp $-45	-0.5pp $-119	base $-194	+0.5pp $-271	+1.0pp $-350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,219
• Closing costs: $8,906
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	0d	40	0.05mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	45d	1	0.16mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	26d	1	0.18mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	45d	1	0.32mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	0d	1	0.66mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	45d	1	0.83mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	45d	1	1.14mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	26d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $246,990 Active 922 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $246,990 Active 919 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $246,990 Active 918 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $246,990 Active 917 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $246,990 Active 916 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $246,990 Active 914 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $246,990 Active 910 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $246,990 Active 909 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $246,990 Active 908 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $246,990 Active 905 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $246,990 Active 904 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $246,990 Active 903 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $246,990 Active 902 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $246,990 Active 901 DOM
15. 2024-03-19
    price $246,990 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    The efficient layout of the Blue Jay plan features an open concept kitchen, dining, and family room. A convenient pocket office is located at the front of the home separating it from the bedrooms and kitchen/dining area that can be converted into a powder bathroom or additional garage storage space. The three bedrooms and two full baths are located on one side of the home, creating ample room for the spacious family room at the heart of this plan.

16. 2024-03-04
    price $244,990 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    The efficient layout of the Blue Jay plan features an open concept kitchen, dining, and family room. A convenient pocket office is located at the front of the home separating it from the bedrooms and kitchen/dining area that can be converted into a powder bathroom or additional garage storage space. The three bedrooms and two full baths are located on one side of the home, creating ample room for the spacious family room at the heart of this plan.

17. 2023-12-13
    listed $239,990 Active 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    The efficient layout of the Blue Jay plan features an open concept kitchen, dining, and family room. A convenient pocket office is located at the front of the home separating it from the bedrooms and kitchen/dining area that can be converted into a powder bathroom or additional garage storage space. The three bedrooms and two full baths are located on one side of the home, creating ample room for the spacious family room at the heart of this plan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,630
• − Property taxes: −$4,453
• − Insurance: −$1,484
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,257
• − Management: −$2,257
• − Depreciation: −$8,636
• Taxable loss: −$7,505
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,801
• After-tax cash flow: $-531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for significant value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring — Improves living space and adds value
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring — Improves living space and adds value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-19 Price Changed $246,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
• 2023-12-13 Listed $239,990 Zillow