979 #8 Toll Gate Rd · Warwick, RI 02886

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 732 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1970 $525/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice mobile unit with central air in 55+ adult community. Seller motivated.

Key facts

• Parking
• Community pool
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Has land lease
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $525; Community amenities include golf, marina, pool, public transportation, tennis courts, recreation area, shopping, restaurants, highway access, near hospital, near schools; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; 1 off-street parking space
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Water connected; Electric service with 100 amp panel and circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story home; Wood siding; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Porch; Screened porch; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Stall shower; Hardwood floors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $674 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 3.8% in Warwick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in RI, #2,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F.
• Warwick (urban): math 15% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #25 of 39 in RI (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 471 units permitted in Kent County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kent County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $120k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.45%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $23,834
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $77,417
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 31 Tenant-Leaning
• State Rhode Island: 31 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; strong tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 02886

• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,518 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $531/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$525
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $674

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,665

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $742	-5% $708	+0% $674	+5% $640	+10% $606
Rent	-10% $475	-5% $575	+0% $674	+5% $774	+10% $873
Rate	-1.0pp $735	-0.5pp $705	base $674	+0.5pp $643	+1.0pp $612

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
303 Greenwich Ave Warwick, RI	1.0–2.0	1.0	858	$2,420	$2.82	3d	6	1.15mi
42 Cedar Pond Dr Warwick, RI	3.0	1.0–2.0	800	$2,622	$3.28	3d	42	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $525 · $6,300/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 467-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast RI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $531 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$712/yr (+$59/mo · 134.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$531
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,417
• − Management: −$2,417
• − HOA: −$6,300
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $6,940
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,666
• After-tax cash flow: $6,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warwick
• NCES district ID: 4401110
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $63,420
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8203
• State rank: #25 of 39 in RI

Livability — Warwick

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2425

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warwick, RI
• City population: 108,434
• Population (ZIP): 30,925

Population outlook (Kent County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 160,994 people
• By 2030: 157,428 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 148,389 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 137,995 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 118,536 · -26.4%
• By 2100: 102,266 · -36.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Russian 7% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kent

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.9% · R 48.1% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 1.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.9 2020: D+7.6 2016: R+0.7 2012: D+18.4 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -425.54%
• Current HPI: 350.8111
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in RI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$373B
▸Food Distribution	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$14B
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$4B

Price history

+84.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $120,000 RIS
• 2016-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2013-12-19 Price Changed $25,500 RIS
• 2012-06-27 Listing Removed — RIS
• 2012-03-28 Listed $29,500 RIS
• 2011-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $21,250 Public Records
• 2011-07-15 Sold (MLS) $21,250 RIS
• 2011-06-20 Listing Removed — RIS
• 2011-06-01 Listed $24,900 RIS
• 2006-09-21 Listing Removed — RIS
• 2006-06-21 Listed $50,000 RIS
• 2005-11-01 Listing Removed — RIS
• 2005-08-02 Listed $65,000 RIS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $531 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.