40937 12th St W · Palmdale, CA 93551

$399,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1980 14 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

About 1,5 acres of usable land with a 3 bedrooms 2 bathrooms 1560 sf. manufactured home, built in 1980.Enjoy the peace and quiet of the country side with the conveniences of the city, close to 14 fwy, shopping and transportation.

Key facts

• 13.6 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 18 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: LCA22; Lot approximately 59,241.6 sq. ft. (about 1.36 acres); Has horse property; APN 3005-019-025; Square footage source: Assessor; No ADU; Solar: None; 433a: No; Sale contingencies: Find home of choice / Concurrent close

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic system; Public water and stock company water; Cable TV available; Internet available; Propane
• Home design: Traditional style; One story; Raised entry/foundation; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Wood construction with wood siding; Composition shingle roof; Raised foundation; Built year not specified
• Exterior features: RV access; Horse facilities; Pets allowed; Paved streets

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Two three-quarter bathrooms
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; Gas range; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $375k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $375k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Westside Union Elementary (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #565 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $400k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $374,726 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.07%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-37,447
• Equity at exit: $59,634

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-5,021
• Equity at exit: $34,580

Cash invested: $111,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93551

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 386
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,747 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,678/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$787
• Net cashflow: $473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,148

Max offer price $399,950

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $700	-5% $586	+0% $473	+5% $360	+10% $247
Rent	-10% $177	-5% $325	+0% $473	+5% $621	+10% $769
Rate	-1.0pp $675	-0.5pp $575	base $473	+0.5pp $369	+1.0pp $264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,988
• Closing costs: $11,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40555 20th St W Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	2158	$3,500	$1.62	0d	1	0.94mi
40016 11th St W Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	2020	$2,900	$1.44	0d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,950 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,950 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,950 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,950 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,950 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,950 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,950 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,950 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,950 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 323-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    days on marketlisting id $399,950 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,950 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,950 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,950 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    remarks 229-char remark
16. 2026-06-01
    listed $399,950 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,678 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,040 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: +$361/yr (+$30/mo · 13.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,403
• − Property taxes: −$2,678
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,597
• − Management: −$3,597
• − Depreciation: −$11,635
• Taxable loss: −$944
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$227
• After-tax cash flow: $5,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0642120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,763
• Composite: 41.01/100
• National rank: #7473
• State rank: #565 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 177,644
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,360
• Household income: $119,801
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1168.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 33% Two or more races 17% Black 10% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.22%
• Current HPI: 327.1791
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+142.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $399,950 AVMLS
• 2018-05-02 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2018-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-01 Sold (MLS) $175,000 CRMLS
• 2018-05-01 Sold (MLS) $175,000 AVMLS
• 2018-04-27 Pending — CRMLS
• 2018-04-23 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2018-02-20 Pending — CRMLS
• 2018-02-20 Pending — AVMLS
• 2018-02-05 Price Changed $164,950 AVMLS
• 2018-01-06 Price Changed $174,950 AVMLS
• 2017-12-07 Price Changed $224,950 AVMLS
• 2017-10-26 Listed $249,950 AVMLS
• 2017-10-20 Listed $164,950 CRMLS

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,678 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.