🏷️ Likely Rental
230 Main St · Vista, CA
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
- —
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- —
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- —
Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- —
Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
- —
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- —
Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
- —
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- —
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +15.0/30.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- 1% rule +5.0/10.0
- DSCR +5.0/10.0
- Schools +4.0/10.0
- Livability +3.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.9/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$11,250
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records
Listing remarks
Heart of Historic Vista Village, Nightlife, Numerous Annual events, Large floor plan, Parking in front, large public parking lot directly across. Rentable space: 4500 SqftTerms: $2.50 sq ft + NNN apox $ 0.13 sq ft (property tax only) can change annually Min 5 years lease with 1 or 2 options to renew (terms TBD), Deposit equal to month and a half rent. Personal guarantee. Tenant to carry 1 million dollar insurance policy, pay all utilities. Any build out plans must be approved by Landlord prior to submitting to/or pulling permits from the City of Vista. Call or text Listing Agent for appt to show, Listing Agent needs to be on property during preview. Mary Reynolds-Rojas, H
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a multifamily listed at $11k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $11k).
- Cap rate 236.8% vs local median 2.4% in Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 60/100 on livability (#584 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, cost of living F.
- Vista Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #175 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $78 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $338 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Questions for the listing agent
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 25.19% ✓
- Cap rate
- 236.79%
- Cash-on-cash
- 823.22%
- DSCR
- 37.63
- GRM
- 0.3
CMA / ARV
No comps found within radius.
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 327-31 E Orange St | 0.17mi | 5/4.0 | — | 10mo | $1,050,000 | — | 71 |
| 627-629 N Citrus Ave | 0.36mi | 4/2.0 | 1,808 | 2mo | $869,000 | $481 | 69 |
| 221-23 Ardys Pl | 0.35mi | 6/4.0 | 1,936 | 2mo | $852,000 | $440 | 69 |
| 702-704 E Vista Way | 0.43mi | 5/4.0 | — | 3mo | $1,075,000 | — | 65 |
| 631-633 Hillside Ter | 0.45mi | 8/3.5 | 2,382 | 3mo | $1,200,000 | $504 | 64 |
| 785 Lemon Ave Unit 1-4 | 0.49mi | 9/5.0 | 3,654 | 1mo | $2,225,000 | $609 | 64 |
| 785 Lemon Ave | 0.49mi | 9/5.0 | 3,654 | 1mo | $2,225,000 | $609 | 64 |
| 117-19 Plymouth Dr | 0.44mi | 4/2.0 | 1,380 | 15mo | $875,000 | $634 | 55 |
| 714 Franklin Ln | 0.51mi | —/— | 20,252 | 11mo | $5,000,000 | $247 | 54 |
| 764 Eucalyptus Ave | 0.63mi | 6/6.0 | 3,712 | 13mo | $1,575,000 | $424 | 47 |
| 475-477 E Indian Rock Rd | 0.73mi | 4/2.0 | 1,704 | 11mo | $910,000 | $534 | 44 |
| 850 Eucalyptus Ave | 0.73mi | 8/7.0 | — | 14mo | $1,330,000 | — | 42 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- 42.87×
- Total profit
- $131,886
- Equity at exit
- $1,677
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- 88.75×
- Total profit
- $276,426
- Equity at exit
- $973
Cash invested: $3,150 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State California
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 92084
- Rents YoY
- 1.6%
- Active inventory
- 131
- Price-to-rent
- 0.3×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,834 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$59
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$14 /mo · $169/yr
- Insurance
- −$5
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$595
- Net cashflow
- $2,161
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $2,169 | -5% $2,165 | +0% $2,161 | +5% $2,157 | +10% $2,153 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $1,937 | -5% $2,049 | +0% $2,161 | +5% $2,273 | +10% $2,385 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $2,167 | -0.5pp $2,164 | base $2,161 | +0.5pp $2,158 | +1.0pp $2,155 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $2,812
- Closing costs
- $338
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 Main St Vista, CA | 2.0 | 1.0–2.5 | 1288 | $4,166 | $3.23 | 2d | 13 | 0.08mi |
| 226 N Citrus Ave Unit A Vista, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1000 | $3,500 | $3.50 | 24d | 1 | 0.10mi |
| 318 Washington St Unit 318 Vista, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 700 | $2,095 | $2.99 | 15d | 1 | 0.13mi |
| 322 Hillside Ter Vista, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | — | $2,350 | — | 24d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 210 Goetting Way Vista, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $2,800 | $3.50 | 24d | 1 | 0.26mi |
| 210 Goetting Way Vista, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $2,690 | $3.36 | 15d | 1 | 0.26mi |
| 523 N Citrus Ave Vista, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | — | $3,545 | — | 2d | 1 | 0.27mi |
| 523 N Citrus Ave Unit 523 (Main House) Vista, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | — | $3,545 | — | 24d | 1 | 0.27mi |
| 528 N Citrus Ave Vista, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 400 | $1,550 | $3.88 | 24d | 1 | 0.28mi |
| 298 Eddie Dr Vista, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–1.5 | 789 | $2,500 | $3.17 | 44d | 2 | 0.29mi |
| 227 Hillside Ter Unit 2 Vista, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | — | $4,350 | — | 44d | 1 | 0.31mi |
| 222 E California Ave Vista, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 450 | $1,795 | $3.99 | 5d | 1 | 0.32mi |
| 318 Hillside Ct Vista, CA | 2.0 | 1.5 | 925 | $2,595 | $2.81 | 3d | 1 | 0.40mi |
| 516 S Santa Fe Ave Vista, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 823 | $2,668 | $3.24 | 2d | 4 | 0.43mi |
| 240 Nevada Ave Vista, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 835 | $2,350 | $2.81 | 5d | 2 | 0.44mi |
| 219 Plymouth Dr Unit B Vista, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1250 | $2,750 | $2.20 | 5d | 1 | 0.46mi |
| 219 Plymouth Dr Unit A Vista, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1050 | $2,500 | $2.38 | 5d | 1 | 0.46mi |
| 722 Franklin Ln Unit B Vista, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | — | $2,495 | — | 24d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 415 Plymouth Dr Vista, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1000 | $2,550 | $2.55 | 5d | 2 | 0.48mi |
| 723 Eucalyptus Ave Vista, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 408 | $1,800 | $4.41 | 5d | 1 | 0.54mi |
| 401 W California Ave Unit 16 Vista, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1100 | $2,340 | $2.13 | 44d | 1 | 0.56mi |
| 740 Paseo Buena Vis Vista, CA | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1038 | $3,342 | $3.22 | 2d | 7 | 0.56mi |
| 801 Hillside Ter Vista, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1150 | $2,550 | $2.22 | 24d | 1 | 0.59mi |
| 264 Avalon Dr Apt 3 Vista, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 695 | $2,095 | $3.01 | 24d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 264 Avalon Dr Unit 13 Vista, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 695 | $1,915 | $2.76 | 5d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 487 Lado De Loma Dr Unit 1 Vista, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 500 | $2,000 | $4.00 | 44d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 344 Rancho Vista Pl Vista, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1141 | $4,000 | $3.51 | 44d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 825 Normark Ter Vista, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $1,875 | $2.50 | 12d | 1 | 0.71mi |
| 825 Normark Ter Unit 2 Vista, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $1,875 | $2.50 | 44d | 1 | 0.71mi |
| 345 N Melrose Dr Unit F Vista, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1152 | $2,995 | $2.60 | 44d | 1 | 0.72mi |
| 333 N Melrose Dr Vista, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 892 | $2,200 | $2.47 | 17d | 1 | 0.72mi |
| 510 Townsite Dr Vista, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–1.5 | 775 | $2,195 | $2.83 | 2d | 3 | 0.73mi |
| 371 N Melrose Dr Unit G Vista, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1100 | $3,400 | $3.09 | 24d | 1 | 0.74mi |
| 560 Copper Dr Vista, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 925 | $2,495 | $2.70 | 2d | 2 | 0.75mi |
| 300 W Los Angeles Dr Vista, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $1,938 | $2.58 | 5d | 2 | 0.75mi |
| 173 Pala Vista Dr Unit 12 Vista, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 990 | $2,695 | $2.72 | 20d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 1024 Bonnie Brae Pl Vista, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1684 | $3,800 | $2.26 | 24d | 1 | 0.78mi |
| 901 Eucalyptus Ave Vista, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1033 | $3,250 | $3.15 | 24d | 1 | 0.78mi |
| 1122 Geronimo Pl Vista, CA | 3.0–4.0 | 2.5–3.0 | 1354 | $3,579 | $2.64 | 2d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 1255 Rhea Pl Unit A Vista, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 700 | $2,350 | $3.36 | 2d | 1 | 0.88mi |
Listing history 2 events
-
2023-06-29historical
-
2023-02-19$11,250
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $34,005
- − Mortgage interest
- −$630
- − Property taxes
- −$169
- − Insurance
- −$56
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,720
- − Management
- −$2,720
- − Depreciation
- −$327
- Taxable income
- $27,382
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$6,572
- After-tax cash flow
- $19,360/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Vista Unified
- NCES district ID
- 0641190
- Math proficiency
- 32% ▼ -5.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 59% ▲ 9.00%
- Median HH income
- $60,067
- Composite
- 39.91/100
- National rank
- #3850
- State rank
- #175 of 517 in CA
Livability — Vista
- Score
- 60/100
- State rank
- #584
- US rank
- #18990
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Vista, CA
- County
- San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
- City population
- 117,104
- Metro
- San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
- Population (ZIP)
- 49,727
- Household income
- $98,577
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1904.0
Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 3,678,185 people
- By 2030
- 3,856,546 · +4.8%
- By 2040
- 4,171,407 · +13.4%
- By 2050
- 4,421,607 · +20.2%
- By 2075
- 4,831,599 · +31.4%
- By 2100
- 4,832,502 · +31.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 49% White 38% Two or more races 26% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 46%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 22% · Canada, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 62% English-only · Spanish 34% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · San Diego
- 2024 margin
- D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -649.36%
- Current HPI
- 366.7772
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.59%
- Metro
- San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.21%
- F500 in state
- 116
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 27 | $1,492B |
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| Financial Services | 3 | $174B |
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| Retail | 3 | $44B |
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| Insurance | 3 | $26B |
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| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $115B |
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| Pharmaceuticals / Biotech | 2 | $62B |
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Price history
2 events — show timeline
- 2023-06-29 Listing Removed — SDMLS
- 2023-02-19 Listed $11,250 SDMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…