801 Schipper St #33 · Arvin, CA 93203

$88,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured · 140 Days on market

Built 1967 Good condition $82/sqft · 398% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to Casa Estate Arvin - the best up and coming community in Arvin!! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with a LARGE footprint is available for sale! Stop by or give us a call today! * * More photo's coming soon!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1967
• Listed 140 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,368 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $616 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,311 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.76%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $17,874
• List price: $88,990
• Delta: 397.87%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
801 Schipper St #48	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-4%)	2mo	$77,500	$75	89
801 Schipper St #30	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+4%)	5mo	$19,000	$17	86
801 Schipper St #86	0.00mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,040 (-4%)	1mo	$10,000	$10	86
801 Schipper St #46	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-4%)	3mo	$9,500	$9	83
801 Schipper St #47	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+2%)	18mo	$85,000	$77	78
801 Schipper St #23	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-4%)	9mo	$7,500	$7	78
801 Schipper St #66	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-4%)	9mo	$79,990	$77	78
801 Schipper St #41	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-4%)	14mo	$75,000	$72	74
801 Schipper St #63	0.00mi	3/2.0	960 (-11%)	9mo	$75,000	$78	74
801 Schipper St #36	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	920 (-15%)	12mo	$26,000	$28	57
801 Schipper St #89	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	940 (-13%)	15mo	$15,000	$16	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $22,544
• Equity at exit: $13,269

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $67,507
• Equity at exit: $7,694

Cash invested: $24,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93203

• Home prices YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,666 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $933

Max offer price $88,990

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,248
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1315 Verde Ct Arvin, CA	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,800	$1.26	19d	1	0.30mi
2304 Hacienda Pl Arvin, CA	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,475	$2.03	44d	1	0.55mi
668 Comanche Dr Arvin, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,329	$1.23	3d	1	0.64mi
225 Meyer St Arvin, CA	2.0	1.0	788	$1,036	$1.31	3d	1	0.87mi
200 Haven Dr Apt B Arvin, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	3d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $88,990 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $88,990 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $88,990 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $88,990 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $88,990 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $88,990 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $88,990 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $88,990 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $88,990 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $88,990 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $88,990 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $88,990 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $88,990 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $88,990 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $88,990 Active 122 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,991
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$1,912
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,599
• − Management: −$1,599
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $5,972
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,433
• After-tax cash flow: $5,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a good layout and modern updates. It has potential for further improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding a small patio or deck — Can increase outdoor living space and add value for both resale and rental.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding a small patio or deck — Can increase outdoor living space and add value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Arvin

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1368
• US rank: #27087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arvin, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,571

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 94% Two or more races 29% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 17% English-only · Spanish 83%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.57%
• Current HPI: 342.8562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B