Is 2504 River Rd #7309 in Wisconsin Dells, WI a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 3.0% cap rate and $-249/mo modeled cash flow at a $91,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2504 River Rd #7309?

The modeled cap rate is 3.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,273/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 42.19

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
1% rule +9.0/10.0
Cash flow +4.2/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.9/5.0
Schools +3.7/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$91,000

2504 River Rd #7309 · Wisconsin Dells, WI 53965

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 735 sqft · Condo · 164 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition $124/sqft · 21% below area Est $115k · 21% under $625/mo HOA · 49% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Chula Vista Golf Villas! This beautiful lofted two bedroom villa is located on the third floor and overlooks the 10th green of Cold Water Golf Course. Enjoy the full kitchen boasting granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Watch the sunset from your private balcony! This unit comes fully furnished plus appliances and has rental potential through the Chula Vista's rental management program. The resort offers great amenities such as onsite spa, 18 hole golf course, mini golf, arcade, multiple restaurants including award winning Kaminski's Chop House and indoor/outdoor waterparks. Condo owners in Chula's rental program receive discounts!

Key facts

Full kitchen
Onsite spa
Private balcony

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $91k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-249 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $55k (39.5% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $91k).
Recommended offer: $55k (39.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 1.3% in Wisconsin Dells — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 78/100 on livability (#100 in WI, #2,661 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
Wisconsin Dells School District (town): math 44% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #135 of 342 in WI (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Spring Hill Elementary (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #372 of 1,041 statewide, top 40%, 608 students, 57% FRL); Wisconsin Dells Middle School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade D-, #112 of 383 statewide, top 30%, 387 students, 54% FRL); Wisconsin Dells High (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #349 of 483 statewide, top 75%, 603 students, 48% FRL).
Market conditions: 241 active listings in the ZIP; 126 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $629 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Adams County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.

Recommended offer $55,033 (39.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.40% ✓
Cap rate: 3.02%
Cash-on-cash: -11.71%
DSCR: 0.48
GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $115,069
List price: $91,000
Delta: -20.92%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2504 River Rd #7307	0.00mi	2/1.0	735 (0%)	41mo	$108,000	$147	80
2504 River Rd #7428	0.00mi	2/1.0	735 (0%)	59mo	$133,000	$181	80
2504 River Rd #7330	0.00mi	2/1.0	527 (-28%)	16mo	$94,000	$178	62
2504 River Rd #7232	0.13mi	2/1.0	669 (-9%)	30mo	$110,000	$164	59
2504 River Rd #7306	0.00mi	2/1.0	835 (+14%)	35mo	$119,900	$144	57
2504 River Rd #7231	0.00mi	2/1.0	527 (-28%)	22mo	$90,000	$171	56
2504 River Rd #7131	0.13mi	2/1.0	527 (-28%)	30mo	$90,750	$172	49
W707 60th St	1.50mi	1/1.0 (-1)	543 (-26%)	17mo	$140,000	$258	21
1235 River Rd	2.21mi	2/1.5	952 (+30%)	30mo	$237,500	$249	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -36.9%
Equity multiple: -0.18×
Total profit: $-30,173
Equity at exit: $13,568

10-year hold

IRR: -47.5%
Equity multiple: -0.77×
Total profit: $-45,021
Equity at exit: $7,868

Cash invested: $25,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 53965

Active inventory: 241
Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,273 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$477
Tax est. 1.5%: −$114 /mo · $1,365/yr
Insurance: −$38
HOA: −$625
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
Net cashflow: $-249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,587

Max offer price $55,033

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-186	-5% $-217	+0% $-249	+5% $-280	+10% $-311
Rent	-10% $-349	-5% $-299	+0% $-249	+5% $-198	+10% $-148
Rate	-1.0pp $-203	-0.5pp $-225	base $-249	+0.5pp $-272	+1.0pp $-296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $22,750
Closing costs: $2,730
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Other: All window coverings, furniture, electronics, decorations, housewares and appliances included; towels and linens excluded
HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $625Association amenities include common green space, whirlpool, and elevatorCondominium: Chula Vista CondominiumsUnits in building: 69; units in association: 103Pets permitted

Exterior

Parking: Outdoor parking / outside space
Utilities: Municipal waterMunicipal sewerElectric power
Home design: Condo (Garden unit)Entry level: Main/Upper layout
Construction: Estimated 735 finished above-gradeEstimated 750 sq. ft. rangeNo finished below-gradeYear built: Other - see remarks
Exterior features: DeckWood and stone exterior

Interior

Kitchen: Range/ovenRefrigeratorDishwasherMicrowave
Bedrooms: Master bedroom (Main) — 16 x 14Bedroom 2 (Upper) — 14 x 11
Bathrooms: One full bathAt least one tubNo master bedroom bath
Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioningElectric heat fuel
Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted ceilingsCable/satellite availableHigh-speed internet

HOA detail $625/mo · $7,500/yr condo

Likely covers: water
Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $91,000 Active 164 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $91,000 Active 163 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $91,000 Active 162 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $91,000 Active 161 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $91,000 Active 160 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $91,000 Active 158 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $91,000 Active 157 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $91,000 Active 156 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $91,000 Active 155 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $91,000 Active 154 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $91,000 Active 153 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $91,000 Active 152 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $91,000 Active 151 DOM
2026-10-25

days on market $91,000 Active 150 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $91,000 Active 149 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $91,000 Active 148 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $91,000 Active 147 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $91,000 Active 146 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $91,000 Active 145 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $91,000 Active 144 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $91,000 Active 143 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $91,000 Active 142 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $91,000 Active 141 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $91,000 Active 140 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $91,000 Active 139 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $91,000 Active 138 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $91,000 Active 137 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $91,000 Active 136 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $91,000 Active 135 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $91,000 Active 134 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $91,000 Active 133 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $91,000 Active 132 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $91,000 Active 131 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $91,000 Active 130 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $91,000 Active 129 DOM
2026-10-03

days on market $91,000 Active 128 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $91,000 Active 127 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $91,000 Active 126 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $91,000 Active 125 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $91,000 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $91,000 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $91,000 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $91,000 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $91,000 Active 120 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $91,000 Active 119 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $91,000 Active 118 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $91,000 Active 116 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $91,000 Active 115 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $91,000 Active 113 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $91,000 Active 112 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $15,271
− Mortgage interest: −$5,097
− Property taxes: −$1,365
− Insurance: −$455
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,222
− Management: −$1,222
− HOA: −$7,500
− Depreciation: −$2,647
Taxable loss: −$4,237

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,017
After-tax cash flow: $-1,966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $3,675–$11,025 screening

This two-bedroom lofted condo is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good location with a golf course view and is ready for a fresh coat of paint to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint the exterior siding and stone accents — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and property value. ↑
Both Replace the fireplace screen — A new screen can improve the appearance and functionality of the fireplace. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Spring Hill Elementary F WI #372/1,041 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Wisconsin Dells Middle School D- WI #112/383 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Wisconsin Dells High F WI #349/483 Nat'l #13,673/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Wisconsin Dells School District
NCES district ID: 5517040
Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
Median HH income: $47,233
Composite: 35.91/100
National rank: #4810
State rank: #135 of 342 in WI

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Wisconsin Dells

Score: 78/100
State rank: #100
US rank: #2661

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Wisconsin Dells, WI
County: Adams County · 18,560 people
City population: 10,818
Metro: Madison, WI
Population (ZIP): 10,818
Household income: $66,667
Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 18,560 people
By 2030: 17,523 · -5.6%
By 2040: 14,888 · -19.8%
By 2050: 12,359 · -33.4%
By 2075: 8,662 · -53.3%
By 2100: 6,000 · -67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Native American 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 34.6% · R 60.4% · Other 5.0%
2008→2024 swing: -44.2pp toward R · 2008: 18.3pp · 2024: -25.8pp
All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+25.7 2016: R+21.8 2012: D+8.7 2008: D+18.3

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -148.85%
Current HPI: 234.2781
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Madison, WI
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
#391 Oshkosh Oshkosh $10.3B #375 Snap-on Kenosha $4.8B #449 Generac Holdings Waukesha $3.9B #480 A.O. Smith Milwaukee $3.9B
Industrial Technology	2	$36B
#139 Johnson Controls International Cork $27.4B #340 Rockwell Automation Milwaukee $8.3B
Insurance	1	$36B
#119 Northwestern Mutual Milwaukee $36.0B
Professional Services	1	$19B
#277 ManpowerGroup Milwaukee $18.8B
Utilities	1	$9B
#274 WEC Energy Group Milwaukee $8.8B
Consumer Goods	1	$3B
#438 Spectrum Brands Holdings Middleton $2.9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-05-28 Listed $91,000 SCWMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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