9051 9th Ave N · Birmingham, AL 35206

$19,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,109 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 140 Days on market

Built 1963 6,969 sqft lot $18/sqft · 69% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Roomy starter home with 3 bedrooms, bath, dining room, kitchen and living room. Needs some TLC. Sold as is. See agent notes to submit offers.

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Built 1963
• Listed 140 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $744 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 51.2% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 5.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $17,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 51.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 160.31%
• DSCR: 8.13
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,935
• List price: $19,900
• Delta: -69.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9051 9th Ave N	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,109 (0%)	0mo	$22,000	$20	100
626 West Blvd	0.72mi	3/1.0	972 (-12%)	17mo	$57,000	$59	31
9029 Bel Air Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	970 (-12%)	24mo	$20,500	$21	29
9044 Belvoir Dr	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	962 (-13%)	22mo	$68,368	$71	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.69×
• Total profit: $42,844
• Equity at exit: $2,967

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.69×
• Total profit: $92,982
• Equity at exit: $1,721

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35206

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,189 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $986/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $744

Break-even live

Break-even rent $247

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $815	-5% $809	+0% $744	+5% $739	+10% $733
Rent	-10% $650	-5% $697	+0% $744	+5% $791	+10% $838
Rate	-1.0pp $754	-0.5pp $749	base $744	+0.5pp $739	+1.0pp $734

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8333 4th Ave N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1384	$1,300	$0.94	44d	1	0.85mi
8300 4th Ave N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1455	$1,300	$0.89	44d	1	0.89mi
426 Buckingham Cir Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,013	$0.94	44d	1	0.93mi
8416 Division Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,350	$0.92	44d	1	1.07mi
8917 Roebuck Blvd Apt 11 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	880	$725	$0.82	17d	1	1.15mi
8020 4th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	1.19mi
209 Tucker Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,100	$1.05	44d	1	1.23mi
221 Lawson Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1102	$1,325	$1.20	24d	1	1.28mi
204 McCormick Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	880	$980	$1.11	4d	1	1.29mi
8240 2nd Ave S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	990	$875	$0.88	24d	1	1.29mi
9844 Greenlee Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1046	$950	$0.91	44d	1	1.30mi
8513 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,150	$1.00	44d	1	1.33mi
8149 1st Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	44d	1	1.34mi
252 Meadowdale Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	920	$995	$1.08	44d	1	1.38mi
425 87th St S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	890	$1,077	$1.21	44d	1	1.38mi
8128 2nd Ave S Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1390	$1,150	$0.83	24d	1	1.40mi
8408 5th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,528	$1.39	44d	1	1.42mi
8408 5th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	890	$1,295	$1.46	11d	1	1.42mi
316 Pine St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,100	$0.89	44d	1	1.43mi
8129 2nd Ave S Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	44d	1	1.44mi
252 Westwood Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1124	$1,400	$1.25	2d	1	1.47mi
8202 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1178	$1,075	$0.91	44d	1	1.47mi
8021 1st Ave S Unit A Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	980	$950	$0.97	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-29
   price $19,900 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   Roomy starter home with 3 bedrooms, bath, dining room, kitchen and living room. Needs some TLC. Sold as is. See agent notes to submit offers.

2. 2026-03-31
   price $29,900 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   Roomy starter home with 3 bedrooms, bath, dining room, kitchen and living room. Needs some TLC. Sold as is. See agent notes to submit offers.

3. 2026-02-27
   price $44,900 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   Roomy starter home with 3 bedrooms, bath, dining room, kitchen and living room. Needs some TLC. Sold as is. See agent notes to submit offers.

4. 2026-01-06
   listed $59,900 Active 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   Roomy starter home with 3 bedrooms, bath, dining room, kitchen and living room. Needs some TLC. Sold as is. See agent notes to submit offers.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $986 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $986 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$986
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,141
• − Management: −$1,141
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $9,205
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,209
• After-tax cash flow: $6,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 15,621
• Household income: $42,549
• Rent vs Own: 51.1% rent · 48.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1169.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 22% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.70%
• Current HPI: 146.2168
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.82%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-66.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $19,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $29,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $44,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $59,900 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $986 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.